Background
Methods
Study population and recruitment
Assessment schedule
Data handling
Selection of variables for prediction modelling
Statistical methods
Results
Variables | Whole baseline cohort | Participated in follow up | Negative response | No response | Othera
| Dead | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N (%) | 584 (100) | 339 (58) | 123 (21) | 66 (11) | 26 (5) | 30 (5) | |
Age, mean (SD) | 78.5 (7.7) | 77.4 (7.4) | 79.9 (7.6) | 78.3 (7.8) | 78.0 (9.4) | 85.9 (5.4) | |
Female sex, n (%) | 317 (54) | 185 (55) | 68 (55) | 42 (64) | 9 (35) | 13 (43) | |
SIMD | 1–4, n (%) | 287 (49) | 147 (44) | 70 (57) | 37 (56) | 19 (73) | 14 (47) |
5–10, n (%) | 293 (51) | 188 (56) | 53 (43) | 29 (44) | 7 (27) | 16 (53) | |
Mean activity count per 24 h at baseline (SD) | 146,045 (79,528) | 157,407 (78,071) | 128,877 (76,527) | 143,442 (85,739) | 144,947 (72,490) | 98,795 (73,370) | |
Mean minutes of walking per day at baseline (SD) | 177 (89) | 191 (85) | 155 (86) | 177 (100) | 172 (84) | 120 (83) | |
Hospitalised in previous year, n (%) | 99 (17) | 46 (14) | 25 (20) | 13 (20) | 6 (23) | 9 (30) | |
Rheumatoid arthritis, n (%) | 43 (7) | 22 (6) | 8 (7) | 8 (12) | 1 (4) | 4 (13) | |
Osteoarthritis, n (%) | 112 (19) | 65 (19) | 25 (20) | 13 (20) | 3 (12) | 6 (20) | |
Neurological disease, n (%) | 10 (2) | 4 (1) | 5 (4) | 0 (0) | 3 (12) | 1 (3) | |
Hypertension, n (%) | 289 (49) | 161 (47) | 60 (49) | 38 (58) | 13 (50) | 17 (57) | |
Diabetes mellitus, n (%) | 62 (11) | 24 (7) | 19 (15) | 8 (12) | 3 (12) | 8 (27) | |
Heart disease, n (%) | 186 (32) | 100 (29) | 41 (33) | 20 (30) | 8 (31) | 17 (57) | |
Active cancer, n (%) | 33 (6) | 16 (5) | 10 (8) | 3 (5) | 2 (8) | 2 (7) | |
Fall in last year, n (%) | 189 (32) | 100 (29) | 36 (29) | 22 (33) | 13 (50) | 18 (60) | |
Presence of chronic pain, n (%) | 255 (44) | 143 (42) | 54 (44) | 31 (47) | 11 (42) | 16 (53) |
How do objectively measured physical activity levels change over time?
Group | N | Activity counts/24 h – baseline mean (SD) | Activity counts/24 h - follow up, mean (SD) | Activity counts/24 h – difference between baseline and follow up | Mean difference in activity count/24 h per year | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean (SD) |
P* | Mean (SD) |
P* |
P** | ||||
A | 95 | 168,831 (88,091) | 146,764 (71,401) | −22,067 (71,392) | 0.003 | −10,122 (34,880) | 0.006 | 0.73 |
B | 35 | 106,829 (34,917) | 89,980 (44,807) | −16,850 (46,022) | 0.04 | −8060 (23,282) | 0.05 | 0.80 |
C | 102 | 174,754 (73,806) | 168,095 (78,802) | −6659 (78,531) | 0.39 | −3676 (34,303) | 0.28 | 0.05 |
D | 77 | 142,569 (74,681) | 110,219 (64,763) | −32,351 (71,086) | <0.001 | −15,471 (36,449) | <0.001 | 0.06 |
Group | N | Minutes walking/24 h – baseline mean (SD) | Minutes walking/24 h - follow up mean (SD) | Minutes walking/24 h – difference between baseline and follow up | Mean difference in minutes walking/24 h per year | |||
Mean (SD) |
P* | Mean (SD) |
P* |
P** | ||||
A | 95 | 196 (85) | 176 (78) | −21 (79) | 0.01 | −10 (41) | 0.02 | 0.92 |
B | 35 | 134 (47) | 114 (57) | −18 (57) | 0.07 | −9 (30) | 0.08 | 0.86 |
C | 102 | 217 (86) | 207 (88) | −10 (88) | 0.26 | −5 (40) | 0.21 | 0.11 |
D | 77 | 178 (85) | 139 (88) | −38 (84) | < 0.001 | −18 (42) | <0.001 | 0.05 |
What factors predict decline in physical activity over time in older people?
Variables | R2
| Unstandardized Coefficient | t |
P value | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B | Std Error | |||||
Female sex | 0.022 | −12,598 | 4827 | −2.01 | 0.01 | |
Age (per year) | 0.133 | −2165 | 316 | −6.85 | <0.001 | |
SIMD (per decile; higher decile = more affluent) | 0.019 | 2177 | 894 | 2.44 | 0.015 | |
Extended TPB (high vs low) higher score = stronger beliefs/norms/actions) | Behavioural beliefs | 0.039 | 35,065 | 10,295 | 3.41 | 0.001 |
Self-efficacy | 0.044 | 19,046 | 5067 | 3.76 | <0.001 | |
Normative belief | 0.073 | 33,672 | 6956 | 4.84 | <0.001 | |
Attitude | 0.015 | 20,175 | 9416 | 2.14 | 0.03 | |
Subjective norm | 0.042 | 7719 | 2105 | 3.67 | <0.001 | |
Need for support | 0.002 | −7003 | 8667 | −0.81 | 0.42 | |
Received support | 0.005 | 7410 | 5833 | 1.27 | 0.21 | |
Coping planning | 0.000 | 2828 | 10,674 | 0.27 | 0.79 | |
Action planning | 0.031 | 15,259 | 4889 | 3.12 | 0.002 | |
Intention | 0.057 | 22,318 | 5364 | 4.16 | <0.001 | |
SF-36 (per point; higher scores = better function) | Physical functioning | 0.198 | 929 | 107 | 8.70 | <0.001 |
Role – Physical | 0.037 | 335 | 97 | 3.45 | 0.001 | |
Bodily pain | 0.031 | 283 | 91 | 3.10 | 0.002 | |
General health | 0.072 | 594 | 121 | 4.90 | <0.001 | |
Vitality | 0.092 | 669 | 120 | 5.58 | <0.001 | |
Social Functioning | 0.030 | 332 | 108 | 3.08 | 0.002 | |
Role – Emotional | 0.011 | 418 | 229 | 1.82 | 0.07 | |
Mental Health | 0.028 | 578 | 196 | 2.95 | 0.003 | |
Social Capital Module | Neighbourliness (high vs low) | 0.013 | 12,131 | 6172 | 1.97 | 0.05 |
Satisfactory friendship network (y vs n) | 0.023 | 13,281 | 4980 | 2.67 | 0.008 | |
Satisfactory relative network (y vs n) | 0.000 | −1183 | 4862 | −0.24 | 0.81 | |
Social support (per category) | 0.012 | 7028 | 3753 | 1.87 | 0.06 | |
No. of people you can turn to who live nearby (per quartile) | 0.017 | 4847 | 2083 | 2.33 | 0.02 | |
No. of people to turn to during personal crisis (per quartile) | 0.019 | 5590 | 2325 | 2.40 | 0.02 | |
Self-reported Comorbidity | Hospitalised in previous year | 0.003 | −6183 | 6958 | −0.89 | 0.38 |
Rheumatoid arthritis | 0.000 | −2992 | 9683 | −0.31 | 0.76 | |
Osteoarthritis | 0.006 | −8398 | 6259 | −1.34 | 0.18 | |
Neurological disease | 0.002 | −17,947 | 21,508 | −0.83 | 0.41 | |
Hypertension | 0.014 | −9936 | 4845 | −2.05 | 0.04 | |
Diabetes mellitus | 0.027 | −27,555 | 9543 | −2.89 | 0.004 | |
Heart disease | 0.004 | −6211 | 5262 | −1.18 | 0.24 | |
Active cancer | 0.004 | 12,345 | 11,682 | 1.06 | 0.29 | |
Fall in last year | 0.010 | −9166 | 5332 | −1.72 | 0.09 | |
Presence of chronic pain | 0.025 | −13,624 | 4920 | −2.77 | 0.006 | |
Anxiety (HADS) (per point; higher = more anxiety symptoms) | 0.000 | −23 | 751 | −0.03 | 0.98 | |
Depression (HADS) (per point; higher = more depressive symptoms) | 0.057 | −4018 | 931 | −4.31 | <0.001 |
Variables | Unstandardized Coefficient | t |
P value | |
---|---|---|---|---|
B | Std Error | |||
Age at baseline (per year) | −1543 | 326 | −4.74 | <0.001 |
Diabetes mellitus | −22,919 | 8606 | −2.66 | 0.008 |
Satisfactory friend network (yes vs no) | 9040 | 4578 | 1.98 | 0.049 |
Physical functioning SF-36 subscore (per point) | 671 | 120 | 5.60 | <0.001 |