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01.10.2012 | Brief Report

Projected impact of urbanization on cardiovascular disease in china

verfasst von: Faye Chan, Susana Adamo, Pamela Coxson, Lee Goldman, Dongfeng Gu, Dong Zhao, Chung-Shiuan Chen, Jiang He, Valentina Mara, Andrew Moran

Erschienen in: International Journal of Public Health | Ausgabe 5/2012

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Abstract

Objectives

The Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) Policy Model-China, a national scale cardiovascular disease computer simulation model, was used to project future impact of urbanization.

Methods

Populations and cardiovascular disease incidence rates were stratified into four submodels: North-Urban, South-Urban, North-Rural, and South-Rural. 2010 was the base year, and high and low urbanization rate scenarios were used to project 2030 populations.

Results

Rural-to-urban migration, population growth, and aging were projected to more than double cardiovascular disease events in urban areas and increase events by 27.0–45.6 % in rural areas. Urbanization is estimated to raise age-standardized coronary heart disease incidence by 73–81 per 100,000 and stroke incidence only slightly.

Conclusions

Rural-to-urban migration will likely be a major demographic driver of the cardiovascular disease epidemic in China.

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Titel: Projected impact of urbanization on cardiovascular disease in china
verfasst von: Faye Chan
Susana Adamo
Pamela Coxson
Lee Goldman
Dongfeng Gu
Dong Zhao
Chung-Shiuan Chen
Jiang He
Valentina Mara
Andrew Moran
Publikationsdatum: 01.10.2012
Verlag: SP Birkhäuser Verlag Basel
Erschienen in: International Journal of Public Health / Ausgabe 5/2012
Print ISSN: 1661-8556
Elektronische ISSN: 1661-8564
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00038-012-0400-y

Springer Medizin

Abstract

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

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