Chromosomal aneuploidies and combinational fluorescence in situ hybridization probe panels are useful for predicting prognosis for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is a common cancer type in China. In this study, we aimed to develop aneuploidy markers for diagnosis and prognosis of ESCC.

Chromosomal aneuploidies were detected in 493 primary tumors and 61 precancerous lesions by fluorescence in situ hybridization with chromosome enumeration probes (CEP), and cut-off values were set by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

According to the cut-off values, chromosomes 3, 8, 10, 12, 17 and 20 presented frequent gains, with rates of 70.1, 69.7, 58.9, 66.9, 67.5 and 77.2 % in tumors and of 32.1, 26.8, 33.9, 41.2, 44.0 and 42.0 % in precancerous lesions. Loss of chromosome Y was detected in 72.0 % of male patients. An optimal four-probe panel CEP3/12/17/20 was established for detecting ESCC (sensitivity: 86.1 %), and CEP3/10/12/20 for precancerous lesions (sensitivity: 48.0 %). Gain of CEP8 was significantly correlated with lymph node metastasis (LNM) and late stages (P = 0.002 and 0.001), and loss of CEPY with age (P = 0.002, male). Kaplan–Meier survival curves indicated that patients with positive CEP10/17 (pT1 + T2, P = 0.041) and CEP8/17 (stages IIb + III + IV, P = 0.002) had poor overall survival. Combinations of LNM/stage and CEP panels could divide patients into more subgroups, including LNM + CEP3/17, LNM + CEP10/17, LNM + CEP3/10/17, stage + CEP3/17, stage + CEP10/17 and stage + CEP3/10/17 (P = 0.0004, 0.0003, 0.0001, 0.005, 0.001 and 0.0008, respectively). Multivariate Cox regression analysis confirmed that the above combinational models were independent prognostic factors.

Our data suggest that the combinational probe sets may have potential for detection and prognostic prediction of ESCC.