Background
Implementation
Cohorts and risk factors
Statistical analysis
Results
Forced Cox model | Forward stepwise Cox model | Backward stepwise Cox model | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(N = 1591) | (N = 1591) | (N = 1591) | |||||||
β | t | HR(±95%CI) | β | t | HR(±95%CI) | β | t | HR(±95%CI) | |
Age (years) | 0.1024 | 16.81 | 1.68(1.58-1.79) | 0.1017 | 16.78 | 1.67(1.58-1.78) | 0.1029 | 17.01 | 1.69(1.59-1.79) |
Father status (codes 0–1) | 0.1422 | 2.19 | 1.15(1.01-1.31) | 0.1421 | 2.19 | 1.15(1.01-1.31) | 0.1436 | 2.21 | 1.15(1.02-1.31) |
Mother status (codes 0–1) | 0.2063 | 3.11 | 1.23(1.08-1.40) | 0.2121 | 3.22 | 1.24(1.09-1.41) | 0.2072 | 3.16 | 1.23(1.08-1.40) |
Family history of CVD (codes 0–1) | 0.0326 | 0.60 | 1.03(0.93-1.15) | = | = | = | = | = | = |
Corneal arcus (codes 0–1) | 0.2092 | 2.70 | 1.23(1.06-1.43) | 0.1988 | 2.57 | 1.22(1.05-1.42) | 0.2037 | 2.63 | 1.23(1.05-1.43) |
Physical activity (codes 1-2-3) | −0.0830 | −1.92 | 0.92(0.85-1.00) | = | = | = | −0.1042 | −2.51 | 0.90(0.83-0.98) |
Cigarettes smoked per day (N) | 0.0174 | 6.26 | 1.18(1.12-1.24) | 0.0177 | 6.37 | 1.18(1.12-1.25) | 0.0177 | 6.36 | 1.18(1.12-1.25) |
Body mass index (Kg/m2) | −0.1840 | −2.77 | 0.51(0.31-0.82) | −0.1711 | −2.62 | 0.53(0.33-0.85) | −0.2097 | −3.30 | 0.46(0.29-0.73) |
Body mass index2 [(Kg/m2)2] | 0.0033 | 2.70 | 1.90(1.19-3.04) | 0.0031 | 2.62 | 1.85(1.17-2.93) | 0.0036 | 3.03 | 2.02(1.28-3.18) |
Arm circumference (cm) | −0.0026 | −1.64 | 0.94(0.88-1.01) | −0.0034 | −2.21 | 0.92(0.86-0.99) | = | = | = |
Mean blood pressure (mmHg) | 0.0180 | 7.76 | 1.28(1.20-1.36) | 0.0186 | 8.24 | 1.29(1.21-1.36) | 0.0189 | 8.43 | 1.29(1.22-1.37) |
Heart rate (beats/min) | 0.0018 | 0.78 | 1.02(0.97-1.09) | = | = | = | = | = | = |
Serum cholesterol (mmol/l) | 0.0722 | 2.81 | 1.08(1.02-1.14) | 0.0758 | 2.97 | 1.08(1.03-1.14) | 0.0751 | 2.94 | 1.08(1.03-1.14) |
Forced expiratory volume (l/m2) | −0.4691 | −3.93 | 0.89(0.84-0.94) | −0.4815 | −4.05 | 0.89(0.84-0.94) | −0.4742 | −3.99 | 0.89(0.84-0.94) |
ECGm abnormalities (codes 0–1) | 0.0518 | 0.47 | 1.05(0.85-1.31) | = | = | = | = | = | = |
Prevalence CVD (codes 0–1) | 0.3658 | 2.85 | 1.44(1.12-1.85) | 0.3520 | 2.75 | 1.42(1.11-1.83) | 0.3905 | 3.05 | 1.48(1.15-1.90) |
Prevalence K (codes 0–1) | 2.1479 | 4.72 | 8.57(3.51-20.89) | 2.2056 | 4.87 | 9.08(3.73-22.07) | 2.1644 | 4.76 | 8.71(3.58-21.22) |
Prevalence DIAB (codes 0–1) | 0.2545 | 2.06 | 1.29(1.01-1.64) | 0.2502 | 2.02 | 1.28(1.01-1.64) | 0.2674 | 2.16 | 1.31(1.03-1.66) |
ROC ± standard error (±95%CI) | 0.829 ± 0.0137 (0.810-0.847) | 0.830 ± 0.0136 (0.811-0.849) | 0.830 ± 0.0137 (0.810-0.848) |
Rank | Gini | Variable | Keep |
---|---|---|---|
NEURAL NETWORK FORCED
| |||
1 | 0.15950 | Age (AGE0: years) | 1 |
2 | 0.60615 | Cigarettes smoked per day (CIG0: N) | 1 |
3 | 0.64475 | Family history of CVD(famcv0: codes 0–1) | 1 |
4 | 0.64790 | Mean blood pressure (MBP: mmHg) | 1 |
5 | 0.65872 | Serum cholesterol (CHOL0: mmol/l) | 1 |
6 | 0.67052 | Corneal arcus (gero0: codes 0–1) | 1 |
7 | 0.67484 | Mother status (Mother0: codes 0–1) | 1 |
8 | 0.67680 | Prevalence DIAB (pdiab0: codes 0–1) | 1 |
9 | 0.68081 | Forced expiratory volume (fev0trans0: l/m2) | 1 |
10 | 0.68321 | Heart rate (hr0: beats/min) | 1 |
11 | 0.68362 | Father status (Father0: codes 0–1) | 1 |
12 | 0.68414 | Body mass index (BMI0: Kg/m2) | 1 |
13 | 0.68516 | Minor ECG abnormalities (MinorECG0: codes 0–1) | 1 |
14 | 0.68524 | Prevalence CVD (Pcvd0: codes 0–1) | 1 |
15 | 0.68579 | Arm circumference (midclean0: cm) | 1 |
16 | 0.68664 | Body mass index2 (BMIsq0) [(Kg/m2)2] | 1 |
17 | 0.68813 | Prevalence cancer (pcan0: codes 0–1) | 0 |
18 | 0.68872 | Physical activity (PHYAC0: codes 1-2-3) | 0 |
NEURAL NETWORK STEPWISE
| |||
1 | 0.17824 | Age (years) | 1 |
2 | 0.60661 | Cigarettes smoked per day (N) | 1 |
3 | 0.65370 | Mean blood pressure (mmHg) | 1 |
4 | 0.67844 | Mother status (codes 0–1) | 1 |
5 | 0.67918 | Corneal arcus (codes 0–1) | 1 |
6 | 0.68104 | Heart rate (beats/min) | 1 |
7 | 0.68347 | Father status (codes 0–1) | 1 |
8 | 0.68468 | Minor ECG abnormalities (codes 0–1) | 1 |
9 | 0.69231 | Physical activity (codes 1-2-3) | 1 |
10 | 0.69329 | Family history (codes 0–1) | 1 |
11 | 0.69480 | Prevalence DIAB (codes 0–1) | 1 |
12 | 0.69603 | Serum cholesterol (mmol/l) | 1 |
13 | 0.69854 | Prevalence CVD (codes 0–1) | 1 |
First Model | Compared to the Model | p |
---|---|---|
Cox forced | Cox forward stepwise | 0.9587 |
Cox forced | Cox backward stepwise | 0.9588 |
Cox forced | Neural network forced | 0.3478 |
Cox forced | Neural network stepwise | 0.3681 |
Cox forward stepwise | Cox backward stepwise | 1.0000 |
Cox forward stepwise | Neural network forced | 0.3478 |
Cox forward stepwise | Neural network stepwise | 0.4236 |
Cox backward stepwise | Neural network forced | 0.3861 |
Cox backward stepwise | Neural network stepwise | 0.4269 |
Neural network forced | Neural network stepwise | 0.7237 |