Background
Methods
Study area
Data collection and management
Spatial distribution analysis
Temporal distribution analysis
Cross correlation and autocorrelation analysis
Multivariate time series analysis
Results
Spatial distribution of malaria in Hainan
Temporal distribution of malaria in Hainan
Correlation between monthly malaria incidence and climate factors
Lag | MT | MaxT | MinT | R | MH | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CCF
|
SE
|
CCF
|
SE
|
CCF
|
SE
|
CCF
|
SE
|
CCF
|
SE
| |||||
-6 | -0.53 | 0.08 | -0.47 | 0.08 | -0.38 | 0.08 | -0.54 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.08 | ||||
-5 | -0.30 | 0.08 | -0.25 | 0.08 | -0.20 | 0.08 | -0.47 | 0.08 | -0.02 | 0.08 | ||||
-4 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.08 | -0.31 | 0.08 | -0.03 | 0.08 | ||||
-3 | 0.34 | 0.08 | 0.28 | 0.08 | 0.34 | 0.08 | -0.06 | 0.08 | -0.01 | 0.08 | ||||
-2 | 0.57 | 0.08 | 0.45 | 0.08 | 0.52 | 0.08 | 0.19 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.08 | ||||
-1 | 0.65 | 0.08 | 0.48 | 0.08 | 0.59 | 0.08 | 0.36 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.08 | ||||
0 | 0.55 | 0.08 | 0.37 | 0.08 | 0.49 | 0.08 | 0.42 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.08 | ||||
1 | 0.30 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0.26 | 0.08 | 0.35 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.08 | ||||
2 | -0.03 | 0.08 | -0.12 | 0.08 | -0.01 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 0.08 | -0.04 | 0.08 | ||||
3 | -0.36 | 0.08 | -0.38 | 0.08 | -0.28 | 0.08 | -0.10 | 0.08 | -0.10 | 0.08 | ||||
4 | -0.60 | 0.08 | -0.55 | 0.08 | -0.46 | 0.08 | -0.38 | 0.08 | -0.16 | 0.08 | ||||
5 | -0.66 | 0.08 | -0.57 | 0.08 | -0.53 | 0.08 | -0.49 | 0.08 | -0.10 | 0.08 | ||||
6 | -0.56 | 0.08 | -0.46 | 0.08 | -0.45 | 0.08 | -0.56 | 0.08 | -0.13 | 0.08 |
Autocorrelation of monthly malaria incidence
Lag | Monthly malaria incidence | Fitting residual | Predictive residual | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AC
|
PAC
|
LB
|
P
|
AC
|
PAC
|
LB
|
P
|
AC
|
PAC
|
LB
|
P
| |||
1 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 102.48 | < 0.01 | -0.06 | -0.06 | 0.20 | 0.66 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 1.25 | 0.26 | ||
2 | 0.60 | -0.33 | 155.20 | < 0.01 | -0.04 | -0.05 | 0.31 | 0.86 | -0.33 | -0.45 | 3.12 | 0.21 | ||
3 | 0.30 | -0.33 | 168.51 | < 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.54 | 0.91 | -0.13 | 0.18 | 3.45 | 0.33 | ||
4 | 0.03 | -0.07 | 168.64 | < 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.59 | 0.97 | 0.17 | 0.01 | 4.04 | 0.40 | ||
5 | -0.19 | -0.05 | 173.85 | < 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.67 | 0.99 | 0.07 | -0.03 | 4.17 | 0.53 | ||
6 | -0.27 | 0.17 | 185.02 | < 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.68 | 0.99 | -0.02 | 0.09 | 4.18 | 0.65 | ||
7 | -0.24 | 0.12 | 194.14 | < 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.88 | 0.99 | -0.17 | -0.26 | 5.11 | 0.65 | ||
8 | -0.11 | 0.15 | 196.02 | < 0.01 | -0.04 | -0.04 | 0.98 | 0.99 | -0.28 | -0.18 | 8.47 | 0.39 | ||
9 | 0.09 | 0.18 | 197.33 | < 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1.32 | 0.99 | -0.19 | -0.16 | 10.47 | 0.31 | ||
10 | 0.32 | 0.20 | 213.76 | < 0.01 | -0.14 | -0.14 | 2.62 | 0.99 | 0.06 | -0.02 | 10.80 | 0.37 | ||
11 | 0.51 | 0.08 | 254.12 | < 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 2.92 | 0.99 | ||||||
12 | 0.56 | -0.18 | 303.34 | < 0.01 | -0.22 | -0.25 | 6.51 | 0.89 |
Model evaluation and prediction
MT0 | MT1 | MT2 | MT3 | MaxT0 | MaxT1 | MaxT2 | MaxT3 | MinT0 | MinT1 | MinT2 | MinT3 | R0 | R1 | R2 | N1 | N2 | N3 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MT
0
| 1.00 | |||||||||||||||||
MT
1
| 0.82** | 1.00 | ||||||||||||||||
MT
2
| 0.46** | 0.82** | 1.00 | |||||||||||||||
MT
3
| -0.01 | 0.47** | 0.82** | 1.00 | ||||||||||||||
MaxT
0
| 0.77** | 0.57** | 0.24** | -0.14 | 1.00 | |||||||||||||
MaxT
1
| 0.69** | 0.76** | 0.55** | 0.23** | 0.86** | 1.00 | ||||||||||||
MaxT
2
| 0.45** | 0.69** | 0.75** | 0.55** | 0.60** | 0.86** | 1.00 | |||||||||||
MaxT
3
| 0.10 | 0.45** | 0.69** | 0.75** | 0.29** | 0.59** | 0.86** | 1.00 | ||||||||||
MinT
0
| 0.89** | 0.75** | 0.45** | 0.04 | 0.46** | 0.41** | 0.22** | -0.10 | 1.00 | |||||||||
MinT
1
| 0.73** | 0.89** | 0.75** | 0.46** | 0.28** | 0.44** | 0.40** | 0.22** | 0.81** | 1.00 | ||||||||
MinT
2
| 0.41** | 0.74** | 0.89** | 0.76** | -0.01 | 0.27** | 0.44** | 0.41** | 0.53** | 0.81** | 1.00 | |||||||
MinT
3
| -0.01 | 0.42** | 0.74** | 0.90** | -0.33** | -0.01 | 0.27** | 0.45** | 0.16 | 0.54** | 0.81** | 1.00 | ||||||
R
0
| 0.68** | 0.79** | 0.67** | 0.35** | 0.51** | 0.67** | 0.63** | 0.39** | 0.63** | 0.69** | 0.55** | 0.27** | 1.00 | |||||
R
1
| 0.42** | 0.68** | 0.79** | 0.67** | 0.26** | 0.49** | 0.66** | 0.63** | 0.36** | 0.63** | 0.70** | 0.57** | 0.59** | 1.00 | ||||
R
2
| 0.03 | 0.43** | 0.68** | 0.79** | -0.07 | 0.25** | 0.49** | 0.66** | 0.04 | 0.36** | 0.64** | 0.70** | 0.36** | 0.60** | 1.00 | |||
N
1
| 0.33** | 0.63** | 0.76** | 0.68** | 0.13 | 0.39** | 0.55** | 0.55** | 0.33** | 0.58** | 0.70** | 0.63** | 0.44** | 0.58** | 0.55** | 1.00 | ||
N
2
| -0.04 | 0.34** | 0.63** | 0.76** | -0.15 | 0.13 | 0.39** | 0.55** | 0.00 | 0.34** | 0.59** | 0.70** | 0.20** | 0.45** | 0.59** | 0.82** | 1.00 | |
N
3
| -0.41** | -0.04 | 0.34** | 0.63** | -0.41** | -0.15 | 0.13 | 0.40** | -0.36** | 0.01 | 0.34** | 0.59** | -0.15 | 0.21* | 0.45** | 0.55** | 0.83** | 1.00 |
Variables | Tolerance | VIF |
---|---|---|
MT
0
| 0.02 | 51.02 |
MT
1
| 0.02 | 25.26 |
MT
2
| 0.02 | 47.61 |
MT
3
| 0.03 | 39.79 |
MaxT
0
| 0.04 | 24.24 |
MaxT
1
| 0.03 | 38.42 |
MaxT
2
| 0.03 | 37.78 |
MaxT
3
| 0.05 | 22.01 |
MinT
0
| 0.07 | 14.88 |
MinT
1
| 0.06 | 15.71 |
MinT
2
| 0.07 | 13.95 |
MinT
3
| 0.07 | 14.49 |
R
0
| 0.48 | 2.08 |
R
1
| 0.41 | 2.43 |
R
2
| 0.42 | 2.39 |
N
1
| 0.17 | 5.77 |
N
2
| 0.11 | 8.98 |
N
3
| 0.17 | 5.93 |