Background
-
What progress has been made in reducing adolescent first births in sub-Saharan African countries, and how does progress in reducing adolescent first births differ across three adolescent age sub-categories (< 16 years, 16/17 years and 18/19 years), with a particular focus on the youngest age group?
-
How has progress in reducing adolescent first births differed by socio-economic grouping and urban / rural residence, and is there evidence of changing patterns of inequalities between groups?
Methodology
-
Western Africa: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cote D’Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal
-
Middle Africa Cameroon, Chad
-
East Africa: Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe
-
Southern Africa: Namibia
Findings
Overall trends
Country | Baseline Survey | Middle Survey | Final Survey (Most Recent) | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
< 16 | 16/17 | 18/19 | < 20 | < 16 | 16/17 | 18/19 | < 20 | < 16 | 16/17 | 18/19 | < 20 | ||||
Benin | 1996 | 5.9 | 17.5 | 26.5 | 49.9 | 2006 | 8.8 | 14.4 | 21.9 | 45.1 | 2011 | 9.9 | 13.4 | 18.3 | 41.6 |
Burkina Faso | 1993 | 9.2 | 22.3 | 30.9 | 62.4 | 2003 | 7.0 | 20.1 | 30.4 | 57.6 | 2010 | 6.9 | 21.3 | 29.1 | 57.3 |
Cameroon | 1991 | 21.2 | 25.1 | 20.6 | 66.8 | 2004 | 14.2 | 18.9 | 22.1 | 55.2 | 2011 | 12.0 | 17.9 | 19.5 | 49.4 |
Chad | 1996 | 19.7 | 25.7 | 25.6 | 71.0 | 2004 | 22.4 | 25.9 | 22.5 | 70.9 | 2014 | 26.7 | 23.9 | 19.3 | 69.9 |
Cote d’Ivoire | 1994 | 18.2 | 25.5 | 19.6 | 63.2 | 1998 | 13.3 | 21.7 | 20.7 | 55.6 | 2011 | 12.0 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 50.2 |
Ghana | 1993 | 6.5 | 18.0 | 24.0 | 48.5 | 2003 | 3.8 | 11.1 | 19.6 | 34.6 | 2014 | 5.1 | 11.8 | 14.7 | 31.6 |
Guinea | 1999 | 22.9 | 24.3 | 18.9 | 66.2 | 2005 | 18.9 | 25.2 | 21.8 | 66.0 | 2012 | 19.6 | 20.5 | 19.6 | 59.6 |
Mali | 1995 | 16.0 | 30.0 | 23.8 | 69.8 | 2006 | 19.8 | 26.5 | 23.2 | 69.4 | 2012 | 22.3 | 23.9 | 22.0 | 68.2 |
Niger | 1998 | 19.1 | 27.4 | 23.7 | 70.2 | 2006 | 22.4 | 28.5 | 21.3 | 72.2 | 2012 | 21.9 | 26.3 | 25.6 | 73.9 |
Nigeria | 1990 | 18.7 | 16.2 | 18.6 | 53.6 | 2008 | 12.5 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 42.9 | 2013 | 11.7 | 17.4 | 17.7 | 46.7 |
Senegal | 1997 | 9.7 | 16.1 | 17.2 | 43.1 | 2010 | 9.3 | 12.3 | 15.9 | 37.4 | 2017 | 5.8 | 10.5 | 16.2 | 32.5 |
Average W/M Africa | 15.2 | 22.6 | 22.7 | 60.4 | 13.9 | 20.0 | 21.3 | 55.2 | 14.0 | 18.7 | 20.1 | 52.8 | |||
Ethiopia | 2000 | 7.3 | 16.9 | 19.4 | 43.6 | 2005 | 11.4 | 17 | 17.7 | 46.1 | 2016 | 7.4 | 13.8 | 17.3 | 38.4 |
Kenya | 1993 | 9.2 | 18.7 | 24.3 | 52.1 | 2003 | 5.6 | 17.1 | 22.7 | 45.4 | 2014 | 7.7 | 15.6 | 19.7 | 43.0 |
Madagascar | 1997 | 13.5 | 18.6 | 24.4 | 56.6 | 2003 | 9.8 | 21.5 | 22.5 | 53.8 | 2008 | 13.9 | 22.0 | 20.9 | 56.8 |
Malawi | 1992 | 16.4 | 21.1 | 25.8 | 63.3 | 2004 | 10.9 | 23.2 | 29.0 | 63.2 | 2015 | 8.8 | 21.8 | 29.8 | 60.5 |
Mozambique | 1997 | 17.0 | 26.2 | 22.2 | 65.3 | 2001 | 14.3 | 25.8 | 25.4 | 65.5 | 2011 | 17.4 | 24.7 | 25.9 | 68.0 |
Namibia | 1992 | 4.6 | 13.2 | 23.8 | 41.6 | 2006 | 4.8 | 12.2 | 18.2 | 35.1 | 2013 | 3.3 | 11.6 | 19.8 | 34.6 |
Rwanda | 1992 | 1.6 | 6.7 | 16.3 | 24.6 | 2005 | 1.0 | 6.7 | 14.6 | 22.3 | 2014 | 0.8 | 5.2 | 14.4 | 20.5 |
Tanzania | 1996 | 7.1 | 18.3 | 27.0 | 52.4 | 2004 | 6.7 | 22.4 | 27.4 | 56.5 | 2015 | 5.7 | 16.7 | 27.4 | 49.8 |
Uganda | 1995 | 14.3 | 24.8 | 27.3 | 66.4 | 2006 | 12.8 | 22.4 | 27.0 | 62.3 | 2016 | 9.1 | 19.2 | 25.8 | 54.1 |
Zambia | 1996 | 9.2 | 26.0 | 28.1 | 63.3 | 2007 | 9.2 | 24.4 | 27.7 | 61.3 | 2013 | 7.1 | 23.5 | 28.3 | 58.9 |
Zimbabwe | 1994 | 7.1 | 16.2 | 23.7 | 46.9 | 2005 | 4.5 | 16.2 | 26.1 | 46.9 | 2015 | 4.3 | 17.7 | 28.5 | 50.5 |
Average S/ E Africa | 9.8 | 18.8 | 23.8 | 52.4 | 8.3 | 19.0 | 23.5 | 50.8 | 7.8 | 17.4 | 23.4 | 48.6 |
medium term period in years | short term period in years | < 16 short | 16/17 short | 18/19 short | < 20 short | < 16 medium | 16/17 medium | 18/19 medium | < 20 medium | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benin | 15 | 5 | 2.5 | −1.4 | −3.3 | − 1.6 | 4.5 | −1.6 | −2.1 | − 1.1 |
Burkina Faso | 17 | 7 | −0.2 | 0.9 | − 0.6 | − 0.1 | − 1.5 | − 0.3 | − 0.3 | − 0.5 |
Cameroon | 20 | 7 | −2.2 | − 0.8 | − 1.7 | − 1.5 | − 2.2 | − 1.4 | − 0.3 | − 1.3 |
Chad | 18 | 10 | 1.9 | − 0.8 | − 1.4 | − 0.1 | 2.0 | − 0.4 | − 1.4 | − 0.1 |
Cote d’Ivoire | 17 | 13 | − 0.8 | − 0.9 | − 0.6 | − 0.7 | − 2.0 | − 1.5 | − 0.2 | − 1.2 |
Ghana | 21 | 11 | 3.1 | 0.6 | − 2.3 | − 0.8 | − 1.0 | − 1.6 | − 1.8 | − 1.7 |
Guinea | 13 | 7 | 0.5 | −2.7 | − 1.4 | − 1.4 | − 1.1 | − 1.2 | 0.3 | − 0.8 |
Mali | 17 | 6 | 2.1 | − 1.6 | − 0.9 | − 0.3 | 2.3 | −1.2 | − 0.4 | − 0.1 |
Niger | 14 | 6 | −0.4 | −1.3 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | −0.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
Nigeria | 23 | 5 | −1.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 | −1.6 | 0.3 | −0.2 | −0.6 |
Senegal | 20 | 7 | −5.4 | −2.1 | 0.3 | −1.9 | −2.0 | − 1.7 | −0.3 | −1.2 |
Average W / M Africa | 17.7 | 7.6 | 0.0 | −0.8 | − 0.6 | − 0.5 | −0.5 | − 0.9 | −0.7 | − 0.7 |
Ethiopia | 16 | 11 | −3.2 | −1.7 | −0.2 | −1.5 | 0.1 | −1.1 | −0.7 | −0.7 |
Kenya | 21 | 11 | 3.4 | −0.8 | −1.2 | −0.5 | − 0.8 | −0.8 | − 0.9 | −0.8 |
Madagascar | 11 | 5 | 8.4 | 0.5 | −1.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 1.7 | −1.3 | 0.0 |
Malawi | 23 | 11 | −1.8 | −0.5 | 0.3 | −0.4 | −2.0 | 0.1 | 0.7 | −0.2 |
Mozambique | 14 | 10 | 2.2 | −0.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | −0.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
Namibia | 21 | 7 | −4.5 | −0.7 | 1.3 | −0.2 | −1.3 | − 0.6 | −0.8 | − 0.8 |
Rwanda | 22 | 9 | −2.2 | −2.5 | −0.2 | −0.9 | − 2.3 | −1.0 | −0.5 | − 0.8 |
Tanzania | 19 | 11 | −1.4 | −2.3 | 0.0 | −1.1 | −1.0 | −0.5 | 0.1 | −0.3 |
Uganda | 21 | 10 | −2.9 | −1.4 | −0.4 | −1.3 | − 1.7 | −1.1 | − 0.3 | −0.9 |
Zambia | 17 | 6 | −3.8 | −0.6 | 0.4 | −0.7 | −1.3 | −0.6 | 0.0 | −0.4 |
Zimbabwe | 21 | 10 | −0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | −1.9 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
Average E / S Africa | 18.7 | 9.2 | −0.5 | −0.9 | −0.1 | − 0.5 | −1.1 | −0.4 | 0.0 | −0.3 |
Trends by population sub-group
Baseline survey: poorest quintile | Baseline survey: richest quintile | Final survey: poorest quintile | Final survey: richest quintile | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
< 16 | 16/17 | 18/19 | < 20 | < 16 | 16/17 | 18/19 | < 20 | < 16 | 16/17 | 18/19 | < 20 | < 16 | 16/17 | 18/19 | < 20 | |
Ethiopia | 11.7 | 17.1 | 15.1 | 43.9 | 4.5 | 11.2 | 14.8 | 30.5 | 11 | 20.1 | 26.3 | 57.3 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 9.2 | 16.9 |
Kenya | 14.8 | 24.1 | 26.5 | 65.3 | 5.5 | 13.9 | 18.1 | 37.6 | 14.6 | 22.9 | 28.4 | 65.8 | 3.6 | 8.7 | 13 | 25.2 |
Madagascar | 24.1 | 21.8 | 31.1 | 77 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 19 | 31 | 29.5 | 26.4 | 22.5 | 78.4 | 2.6 | 14.1 | 16.1 | 32.8 |
Malawi | 19.7 | 18.3 | 24 | 62.1 | 9.4 | 18.6 | 23 | 51 | 11.1 | 26.8 | 34.2 | 72 | 5.9 | 13.8 | 18.9 | 38.6 |
Mozambique | 22.4 | 29.7 | 16.5 | 68.5 | 6.8 | 27.9 | 25.5 | 60.1 | 24.8 | 25.6 | 26.6 | 77 | 6.5 | 22.7 | 24.2 | 53.4 |
Namibia | 7.8 | 14.6 | 22.7 | 45.1 | 1.7 | 11.1 | 21.8 | 34.6 | 6.1 | 20.5 | 30.1 | 56.7 | 0.2 | 5.7 | 11.6 | 17.4 |
Rwanda | 1.6 | 8.7 | 23.5 | 33.8 | 0.6 | 4.6 | 9 | 14.1 | 0.9 | 8.9 | 22 | 31.7 | 1.2 | 3.9 | 9.2 | 14.3 |
Tanzania | 10.9 | 27.4 | 24.6 | 62.9 | 4.5 | 14.6 | 22.3 | 41.4 | 7.7 | 28.1 | 33.4 | 69.1 | 3.7 | 6 | 16 | 25.7 |
Uganda | 17.2 | 26.4 | 30.8 | 74.4 | 8.5 | 18.7 | 26.3 | 53.5 | 14.7 | 28.3 | 29.9 | 72.9 | 5.6 | 10.4 | 20.2 | 36.2 |
Zambia | 11.8 | 29.1 | 33.7 | 74.6 | 5.5 | 19.3 | 17.7 | 42.6 | 9.3 | 33.3 | 33.4 | 76 | 5 | 9.8 | 19.5 | 34.3 |
Zimbabwe | 12.8 | 20.2 | 31.5 | 64.4 | 2.9 | 10.7 | 17.1 | 30.7 | 7.6 | 26.4 | 39.7 | 73.8 | 0.7 | 5.5 | 17.4 | 23.6 |
Average E/S Africa | 14.1 | 21.6 | 25.5 | 61.1 | 5.1 | 14.3 | 19.5 | 38.8 | 12.5 | 24.3 | 29.7 | 66.4 | 3.4 | 9.6 | 15.9 | 28.9 |
Benin | 10.3 | 19.6 | 32.6 | 62.5 | 0.3 | 10.4 | 13 | 23.7 | 15.7 | 18.9 | 24.1 | 58.8 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 11.8 | 19.7 |
Burkina Faso | 9.7 | 23.4 | 36.8 | 69.8 | 5.9 | 17.3 | 24.3 | 47.5 | 12.5 | 29.7 | 29 | 71.2 | 3 | 11.6 | 17.8 | 32.4 |
Cameroon | 33.1 | 24.6 | 19.1 | 76.8 | 8.7 | 22.5 | 17.9 | 49.1 | 24.3 | 27.8 | 22.1 | 74.2 | 3.5 | 8.9 | 13.3 | 25.7 |
Chad | 19.3 | 27 | 27.3 | 73.6 | 17.9 | 24.1 | 25.4 | 67.4 | 28.4 | 26.7 | 23.4 | 78.5 | 17.6 | 17.2 | 17.5 | 52.3 |
Cote d’Ivoire | 25.2 | 35.1 | 16.7 | 77 | 10.3 | 15.9 | 15.6 | 41.9 | 18.5 | 29.4 | 22.8 | 70.8 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 11.7 | 27 |
Ghana | 9.1 | 15.5 | 28.2 | 52.7 | 3.2 | 10.1 | 15.9 | 29.1 | 7.9 | 15.3 | 22.8 | 45.9 | 2.5 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 13.9 |
Guinea | 33.8 | 27.6 | 16.3 | 77.7 | 11.7 | 20 | 12.3 | 44 | 26.2 | 23.3 | 28.1 | 77.6 | 8.4 | 13.8 | 14.5 | 36.7 |
Mali | 15.7 | 33.6 | 25.7 | 75 | 11.2 | 19.7 | 21.1 | 52 | 26.4 | 28.3 | 22.6 | 77.3 | 12.3 | 18.4 | 17.3 | 47.9 |
Niger | 19.8 | 37 | 23.6 | 80.5 | 10.6 | 17.1 | 21.5 | 49.2 | 22.6 | 31.9 | 26.5 | 80.9 | 11.5 | 21.2 | 20.3 | 52.9 |
Nigeria | 25.7 | 23 | 22.1 | 70.8 | 8.0 | 10.3 | 14.6 | 32.9 | 26.1 | 30.9 | 19.7 | 76.7 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 9.5 | 18.3 |
Senegal | 16.1 | 26.2 | 20.9 | 63.2 | 3.1 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 18 | 16.4 | 24.6 | 23.2 | 64.1 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 10.3 | 13.7 |
Average W/M Africa | 19.8 | 26.6 | 24.5 | 70.9 | 8.3 | 16.0 | 17.1 | 41.3 | 20.5 | 26.1 | 24.0 | 70.5 | 6.4 | 11.0 | 13.6 | 31.0 |
Years at time of survey | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
< 16 | 16/17 | 18/19 | < 20 | |
Ratio richest: poorest quintile | ||||
W/M Africa | ||||
Baseline survey | 0.42 | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.58 |
Final survey | 0.31 | 0.42 | 0.57 | 0.44 |
E/S Africa | ||||
Baseline survey | 0.36 | 0.66 | 0.77 | 0.64 |
Final survey | 0.28 | 0.39 | 0.54 | 0.44 |
Concentration indices | ||||
W/M Africa | ||||
Baseline survey | −0.18 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.12 |
Final survey | −0.27 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.16 |
E/S Africa | ||||
Baseline survey | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.84 |
Final survey | −0.24 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.15 |
Urban Baseline | Rural Baseline | Urban Final | Rural Final | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
< 16 | 16/17 | 18/19 | < 20 | < 16 | 16/17 | 18/19 | < 20 | < 16 | 16/17 | 18/19 | < 20 | < 16 | 16/17 | 18/19 | < 20 | |
Benin | 3.1 | 15.6 | 19.4 | 38.1 | 7.8 | 18.8 | 31.3 | 57.9 | 6.2 | 10 | 15.3 | 31.5 | 13.6 | 16.8 | 21.2 | 51.6 |
Burkina Faso | 5.5 | 19.7 | 21 | 46.2 | 10.3 | 23.0 | 33.6 | 66.9 | 2.6 | 11.5 | 18.8 | 32.9 | 8.8 | 25.7 | 33.7 | 68.2 |
Cameroon | 17.5 | 21.9 | 20 | 59.4 | 24.3 | 27.7 | 21.1 | 73.1 | 7.8 | 13.6 | 16.9 | 38.3 | 18.2 | 24.1 | 23.3 | 65.6 |
Chad | 16.4 | 25.8 | 25.5 | 67.7 | 20.8 | 25.7 | 25.7 | 72.1 | 19.6 | 17.3 | 17 | 53.9 | 29.3 | 26.4 | 20.2 | 76.0 |
Cote d’Ivoire | 13.6 | 20.5 | 19.3 | 53.4 | 22.1 | 29.9 | 19.9 | 71.9 | 8.4 | 12 | 15.3 | 35.7 | 16.3 | 27.7 | 23.7 | 67.7 |
Ghana | 4.9 | 13.5 | 18.5 | 36.9 | 7.5 | 20.8 | 20.4 | 55.9 | 4.2 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 22.4 | 6.1 | 15.4 | 20.6 | 42.1 |
Guinea | 13.3 | 19.7 | 16.4 | 49.4 | 28.6 | 27.1 | 20.4 | 76.1 | 10.9 | 14.8 | 16.9 | 42.6 | 26.3 | 24.9 | 21.7 | 72.9 |
Mali | 11.8 | 22.2 | 23.7 | 57.7 | 18.2 | 34.1 | 23.9 | 76.2 | 14.2 | 19.7 | 18.5 | 52.4 | 25.4 | 25.5 | 23.4 | 74.3 |
Niger | 10 | 17.5 | 22.1 | 49.6 | 21.7 | 30.4 | 24.2 | 76.3 | 10.6 | 15.6 | 22.9 | 49.1 | 24.7 | 29.1 | 26.4 | 80.2 |
Nigeria | 9.3 | 12 | 17 | 38.3 | 22.3 | 17.8 | 19.3 | 59.4 | 5.3 | 9.4 | 13.4 | 28.1 | 16.2 | 22.9 | 20.7 | 59.8 |
Senegal | 4.8 | 10.5 | 12.6 | 27.9 | 13.8 | 20.8 | 21 | 55.6 | 2.7 | 5.8 | 11.2 | 19.7 | 8.8 | 15.1 | 21 | 44.8 |
W/M Regional Average | 10.0 | 17.9 | 19.6 | 47.5 | 17.5 | 25.1 | 25.0 | 67.5 | 8.4 | 12.6 | 16.0 | 37.0 | 17.6 | 23.1 | 23.3 | 63.9 |
Urban/ rural ratio | 0.56 | 0.72 | 0.80 | 0.71 | 0.48 | 0.55 | 0.69 | 0.58 | ||||||||
Ethiopia | 5.6 | 11.5 | 11.3 | 28.5 | 7.7 | 18.1 | 21.3 | 47.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 6.4 | 12.5 | 9.4 | 16.5 | 20.7 | 46.6 |
Kenya | 4.5 | 16.2 | 18.5 | 39.2 | 10.6 | 19.5 | 26 | 56.1 | 6.1 | 11.7 | 17 | 34.7 | 9.2 | 19.3 | 22.2 | 50.8 |
Madagascar | 8.5 | 13.8 | 21.9 | 44.2 | 15.5 | 20.5 | 25.4 | 61.4 | 4.2 | 14.3 | 19.4 | 37.9 | 16.1 | 23.7 | 21.3 | 61.1 |
Malawi | 11.2 | 21.8 | 23.3 | 56.3 | 17.3 | 21 | 26.3 | 64.6 | 6.5 | 15 | 20.6 | 42.1 | 9.3 | 23.4 | 32 | 64.7 |
Mozambique | 10.9 | 29.2 | 25.2 | 65.3 | 19 | 25.2 | 21.2 | 65.4 | 11.1 | 23.8 | 23.6 | 58.5 | 21.4 | 25.2 | 27.3 | 73.9 |
Namibia | 2.8 | 15.5 | 25.2 | 43.4 | 5.8 | 11.8 | 22.9 | 40.4 | 2.5 | 9.6 | 16.8 | 28.9 | 4.5 | 14.9 | 24.7 | 44.1 |
Rwanda | 2.0 | 5.7 | 11.7 | 19.4 | 1.6 | 6.8 | 16.7 | 25.1 | 1.3 | 5.3 | 13 | 19.5 | 0.7 | 5.2 | 14.8 | 20.7 |
Tanzania | 5.5 | 15.9 | 25.7 | 47.1 | 7.7 | 19.2 | 27.6 | 54.5 | 4.7 | 10.8 | 19.5 | 35 | 6.4 | 20.3 | 32.2 | 58.9 |
Uganda | 7.5 | 17.2 | 28.6 | 53.3 | 15.6 | 26.3 | 27.1 | 69 | 5.6 | 12.6 | 20.8 | 39 | 10.7 | 22 | 27.9 | 60.6 |
Zambia | 8 | 24.1 | 24.1 | 56.2 | 10.2 | 27.6 | 31.3 | 69.1 | 5.8 | 16.2 | 25.1 | 47.1 | 8.5 | 30.9 | 31.5 | 70.9 |
Zimbabwe | 3.2 | 12 | 19.5 | 34.7 | 9.4 | 18.7 | 26.1 | 54.2 | 2.3 | 11.9 | 21 | 35.3 | 5.7 | 22.1 | 34.2 | 62 |
E / S Regional Average | 6.3 | 16.6 | 22.0 | 44.9 | 10.9 | 19.5 | 23.3 | 53.8 | 4.7 | 12.4 | 18.5 | 35.5 | 9.3 | 20.3 | 26.3 | 55.8 |
Urban / rural ratio | 0.58 | 0.85 | 0.94 | 0.84 | 0.50 | 0.61 | 0.70 | 0.64 |