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Erschienen in:
01.09.2015 | Hepatobiliary Tumors
Positive Postoperative CEA is a Strong Predictor of Recurrence for Patients After Resection for Colorectal Liver Metastases
Erschienen in: Annals of Surgical Oncology | Ausgabe 9/2015
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Background
The role of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) in surveillance and follow-up of patients with colorectal cancer continues to be debated. The objective of this study was to assess the utility of postoperative CEA as a predictor of recurrence for patients with resected colorectal liver metastases (CLM).
Methods
Patients were identified from a prospectively maintained CLM database, and were studied retrospectively. Patients with extrahepatic disease or initially unresectable CLM were excluded. All patients in this study received adjuvant systemic chemotherapy after resection.
Results
Between 1997 and 2007, a total of 318 consecutive patients were studied, with 168 patients (53 %) experiencing recurrence within 2 years. Various postoperative CEA cutoffs were tested as independent predictors of recurrence. A postoperative CEA ≥15 ng/ml obtained the highest hazard ratio (1.87; 95 % CI 1.09–3.2; p = 0.023) and was chosen to be included in the survival analysis in the multivariate model. A postoperative CEA ≥15 ng/ml had a specificity of 96 % and positive predictive value of 82 % for recurrence. On multivariate analysis, age ≥70 years, the presence of positive lymph node at primary tumor resection, disease-free interval ≤12 months, number of lesions >1, largest lesion ≥5 cm, presence of positive margins, and postoperative CEA ≥15 ng/ml were independent predictors of recurrence within 2 years.
Conclusion
This study demonstrates a postoperative CEA ≥15 ng/ml to be a predictive test for recurrence.