Introduction
Patients and study design
Primary and secondary endpoints
Statistics
Results
Patient characteristics and treatment
Number | (%) | |
---|---|---|
Total | 1981 | 100.0 |
Age | ||
< 35 | 70 | 3.5 |
35–49 | 554 | 28.0 |
50–59 | 713 | 36.0 |
60–69 | 501 | 25.3 |
≥ 70 | 143 | 7.2 |
Mean, SD | 54.3 | 10.7 |
Max, Min | 18 | 86 |
Menopausal state | ||
Premenopause | 698 | 35.2 |
Postmenopause | 1283 | 64.8 |
Tumor stage at initial diagnosis | ||
TX | 5 | 0.3 |
Tis | 27 | 1.4 |
T0 | 8 | 0.4 |
T1 | 637 | 32.2 |
T2 | 1030 | 52.0 |
T3 | 172 | 8.7 |
T4 | 102 | 5.1 |
Nodal status at initial diagnosis | ||
NX | 4 | 0.2 |
N0 | 1131 | 57.1 |
N1 | 673 | 34.0 |
N2 | 130 | 6.6 |
N3 | 42 | 2.1 |
NA | 1 | 0.1 |
Tumor grade | ||
1 | 179 | 9.8 |
2 | 633 | 34.5 |
3 | 1021 | 55.7 |
NA | 148 | 7.4 |
ER/PgR status | ||
ER and/or PgR positive | 895 | 45.9 |
ER and PgR negative | 1057 | 54.1 |
NA | 29 | 1.5 |
HER2 status | ||
IHC 3 | 1617 | 84.0 |
IHC ≤ 2 FISH+ | 264 | 13.7 |
FISH + | 43 | 2.2 |
Not classified above | 57 | 2.9 |
Neoadjuvant therapy performed | 702 | 35.4 |
Adjuvant therapy performed | 1974 | 99.6 |
Trastuzumab administration | ||
Preoperative only | 26 | 1.3 |
Pre- and postoperative | 440 | 22.2 |
Postoperative only | 1515 | 76.5 |
Hormonal therapy performed | 954 | 48.2 |
Surgery | 954 | 48.2 |
Partial mastectomy | 1021 | 51.6 |
Mastectomy | 959 | 48.4 |
NA | 1 | 0.1 |
Radiotherapy performed | 1139 | 57.5 |
DFS and OS
Timing of recurrence with respect to organs
Analysis of factors influencing DFS and a recurrence model
Univariate analysis | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
B | SE | HR (95% CI upper, lower) | p value | ||
Age | |||||
Per year, continuous | 0.012 | 0.006 | 1.012 | 1.000, 1.023 | 0.044 |
< 60 vs. ≥ 60 | 0.317 | 0.124 | 1.373 | 1.077, 1.750 | 0.011 |
< 70 vs. ≥ 70 | 0.745 | 0.183 | 2.107 | 1.471, 3.019 | < 0.001 |
Menopausal status | |||||
Pre- vs. post-menopause | 0.041 | 0.127 | 1.042 | 0.812, 1.337 | 0.746 |
T stage | |||||
T1 vs. T2-4 | 0.950 | 0.162 | 2.586 | 1.884, 3.552 | < 0.001 |
N sage | |||||
N0 vs. N1-3 | 0.893 | 0.125 | 2.444 | 1.912, 3.123 | < 0.001 |
Pathological tumor size | |||||
≤ 1 cm vs. > 1 cm | 0.383 | 0.142 | 1.467 | 1.110, 1.938 | 0.007 |
Pathological lymph node metastasis | |||||
0 vs. 1–3 lymph nodes involved | 0.429 | 0.145 | 1.536 | 1.156, 2.043 | 0.003 |
0 vs. ≥ 4 lymph nodes involved | 1.152 | 0.149 | 3.164 | 2.365, 4.233 | < 0.001 |
pN0 vs. pN + | 0.715 | 0.121 | 2.044 | 1.611, 2.594 | < 0.001 |
Grade | |||||
Grade 1 vs. 2 | − 0.085 | 0.224 | 0.918 | 0.592, 1.424 | 0.703 |
Grade 1 vs. 3 | − 0.036 | 0.213 | 0.964 | 0.635 | 0.865 |
ER status | |||||
Negative vs. positive | − 0.104 | 0.123 | 0.901 | 0.708, 1.146 | 0.396 |
HER2 status | |||||
IHC 3 + vs. 2 + FISH + | − 0.023 | 0.180 | 0.977 | 0.687, 1.389 | 0.896 |
IHC 3 + vs. FISH + | 0.321 | 0.360 | 1.378 | 0.681, 2.790 | 0.373 |
Surgery (type) | |||||
Partial vs. total mastectomy | 0.486 | 0.123 | 1.626 | 1.278, 2.070 | < 0.001 |
Preoperative systemic therapy | |||||
No vs. Yes | 0.409 | 0.122 | 1.505 | 1.185, 1.912 | 0.001 |
CTx concurrent with TZM vs. sequential | 0.196 | 0.425 | 1.217 | 0.529, 2.802 | 0.644 |
CTx concurrent with TZM vs. without CTx | − 9.998 | 230.841 | 0.000 | 0.000, inf | 0.965 |
Postoperative systemic therapy | |||||
No vs. yes | − 1.956 | 0.504 | 0.141 | 0.053, 0.380 | < 0.001 |
CTx concurrent with TZM vs. sequential | − 0.006 | 0.182 | 0.994 | 0.696, 1.419 | 0.974 |
CTx concurrent with TZM vs. without CTx | 0.472 | 0.176 | 1.604 | 1.136, 2.263 | 0.007 |
Chemotherapy | |||||
No vs. yes (pre and/or postoperative) | − 0.380 | 0.206 | 0.684 | 0.457, .025 | 0.066 |
Multivariate Model 1: Compulsive insertion method | Multivariate Model 2: Variable-increasing method using likelihoods | Score ratio | Score (point) | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B | SE | HR | HR (95% CI upper lower) | p value | B | SE | HR | HR (95% CI upper lower) | p value | |||||
Age | ||||||||||||||
< 70 | Ref | Ref | ||||||||||||
≥ 70 | 0.850 | 0.191 | 2.340 | 1.610 | 3.400 | < 0.001 | 0.850 | 0.191 | 2.340 | 1.610 | 3.400 | < 0.001 | 2.193 | 2 |
Tumor stage | ||||||||||||||
T1 | Ref | Ref | ||||||||||||
T2–4 | 0.584 | 0.175 | 1.793 | 1.273 | 2.526 | 0.001 | 0.584 | 0.175 | 1.793 | 1.273 | 2.526 | 0.001 | 1.507 | 2 |
TX Tis T0 | − 0.086 | 0.726 | 0.917 | 0.221 | 3.804 | 0.905 | − 0.086 | 0.726 | 0.917 | 0.221 | 3.804 | 0.905 | ||
Nodal status | ||||||||||||||
N0 | Ref | Ref | ||||||||||||
N1–3 | 0.388 | 0.162 | 1.473 | 1.073 | 2.023 | 0.016 | 0.388 | 0.162 | 1.473 | 1.073 | 2.023 | 0.016 | 1.000 | 1 |
NX | 1.053 | 1.013 | 2.866 | 0.393 | 20.883 | 0.299 | 1.053 | 1.013 | 2.866 | 0.393 | 20.883 | 0.299 | ||
Tumor size (pathological) | ||||||||||||||
< 1 cm | Ref | Ref | ||||||||||||
≥ 1 cm | 0.485 | 0.169 | 1.623 | 1.166 | 2.260 | 0.004 | 0.485 | 0.169 | 1.623 | 1.166 | 2.260 | 0.004 | 1.250 | 1 |
Lymph node metastasis | ||||||||||||||
n0 | Ref | Ref | ||||||||||||
n1 | 0.224 | 0.172 | 1.251 | 0.894 | 1.752 | 0.192 | 0.224 | 0.172 | 1.251 | 0.894 | 1.752 | 0.192 | ||
n2–3 | 0.780 | 0.188 | 2.182 | 1.511 | 3.151 | < 0.001 | 0.780 | 0.188 | 2.182 | 1.511 | 3.151 | < 0.001 | 2.013 | 2 |
Preoperative systemic therapy | ||||||||||||||
No | Ref | Ref | ||||||||||||
Yes | 0.570 | 0.158 | 1.769 | 1.297 | 2.412 | < 0.001 | 0.570 | 0.158 | 1.769 | 1.297 | 2.412 | < 0.001 | 1.472 | 1 |
Variable | Risk point |
---|---|
Age ≥ 70 | 2 |
T stage T2–4 | 2 |
N stage N1–3 | 1 |
Tumor size (pathological) ≥ 1 cm | 1 |
Lymph node metastasis (≥ n2) | 2 |
Preoperative systemic therapy (yes) | 1 |
Total score | Probability (%) |
---|---|
0 | 3.5 |
1 | 4.7 |
2 | 6.4 |
3 | 8.6 |
4 | 11.6 |
5 | 15.6 |
6 | 21.1 |
7 | 28.4 |
8 | 38.4 |
9 | 51.8 |