Long-term right ventricular apical pacing (RVAP) is reportedly associated with heart failure (HF) development. However, the predictors of pacing-induced HF (PHF) remained unclear. We retrospectively enrolled 234 patients without structural heart disease who underwent a permanent pacemaker implantation with RVAP between 1982 and 2004. RVAP-induced HF was defined as left ventricular ejection fraction decrease >5 % with HF symptom without other HF development etiology. The QRS duration of a paced beat (pQRSd) and myocardial scar score were analyzed from each patient’s 12-lead ECG. During a mean 15.6 years (range 3.3–30.0 years), 48 patients (20.5 %) patients developed RVAP-induced HF. The PHF group patients had a longer pQRSd (192.4 ± 13.5 vs. 175.7 ± 14.7 ms in non-PHF patients, p < 0.001) and a higher myocardial scar score (5.2 ± 1.9 vs. 2.7 ± 1.9, respectively p < 0.001). In multivariate Cox regression analysis, old age at implantation [Hazard ratio (HR) 1.62, 95 % confidential interval (CI) 1.22–2.16, p = 0.001], a longer pQRSd (HR 1.54, 95 % CI 1.15–2.05, p = 0.003), a higher myocardial scar score (HR 1.23, 95 % CI 1.03–1.49, p = 0.037), and a higher percentage of ventricular pacing (HR 1.31, 95 % CI 1.01–1.49, p = 0.010) were independent predictors of PHF. Based on the results of the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the pQRSd cutoff was 185 ms (AUC 0.79, sensitivity 66.7 %, specificity 76.3 %) and myocardial scar score cutoff value was 4 (AUC 0.81, sensitivity 81.3 %, specificity 66.1 %). The pQRSd was positively correlated with scar score (r = 0.70, p < 0.001). pQRSd ≥185 ms and/or myocardial scar score ≥4 might be independent long-term prognostic markers of PHF.