Road Traffic and Urban Form Factors Correlated with the Incidence of Lung Cancer in High-density Areas: An Ecological Study in Downtown Shanghai, China

The incidence of lung cancer is affected by air pollution, especially in high-density urban areas with heavy road traffic and dense urban form. Several studies have examined the direct relationship between lung cancer incidence and road traffic as well as urban form. However, the results are still inconsistent for high-density urban areas. This study focused on urban form and road traffic, aiming at revealing their relationship with lung cancer incidence in high-density urban areas at the neighborhood level. For this, an ecological study was conducted in downtown Shanghai to identify important indicators and explore quantitative associations. Negative binomial regression was fitted with lung cancer incidence as the dependent variable. The independent variables included indicators for road traffic and urban form, greenness, demographic, and socio-economic factors. The results showed that building coverage, averaged block perimeter area ratio, density of metro station without the glass barrier system, and the percentage of low-quality residential land were positively correlated with lung cancer incidence in the neighborhood, while population density was negatively correlated with lung cancer incidence. This study found a strong self-selection effect of socio-economic factors in the relationship between lung cancer incidence and greenness. These results may be useful for conducting health impact assessments and developing spatial planning interventions for respiratory health in high-density urban areas.