Introduction
Methods
Results
Clinical endpoint |
n
|
---|---|
No type 2 diabetes, CVD or death | 69,749 |
Incident type 2 diabetes only | 977 |
Incident CVD only | 1171 |
Deatha | 874 |
Incident type 2 diabetes and CVD | 55 |
Type 2 diabetes and death | 22 |
CVD and death | 30 |
Type 2 diabetes, CVD and death | 2 |
Characteristic | Incident | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
None | T2D | CVD | Death | |
Sex (n; male/female) | 28,021/41728 | 524/532 | 637/621 | 489/439 |
Men (%) | 40.2 | 49.6 | 50.6 | 52.7 |
Age (years) | 43.7 ± 12.0 | 51.8 ± 11.4 | 54.2 ± 12.0 | 58.0 ± 12.7 |
BMI (kg/m2) | 25.8 ± 4.1 | 29.7 ± 5.0 | 27.1 ± 4.0 | 26.8 ± 4.3 |
Waist (cm) | 90 ± 12 | 101 ± 13 | 95 ± 12 | 95 ± 13 |
Systolic BP (mmHg) | 125 ± 15 | 134 ± 16 | 133 ± 17 | 134 ± 18 |
Diastolic BP (mmHg) | 74 ± 9 | 78 ± 10 | 77 ± 10 | 77 ± 10 |
Heart rate (bpm) | 71 ± 11 | 73 ± 11 | 71 ± 11 | 71 ± 12 |
Creatinine (μmol/l) | 73 ± 13 | 75 ± 15 | 76 ± 14 | 77 ± 22 |
eGFR (ml/min) | 97 ± 15 | 92 ± 15 | 90 ± 15 | 87 ± 16 |
Total cholesterol (mmol/l) | 5.1 ± 1.0 | 5.3 ± 1.0 | 5.4 ± 1.0 | 5.4 ± 1.0 |
HDL-cholesterol (mmol/l) | 1.49 ± 0.39 | 1.29 ± 0.37 | 1.43 ± 0.40 | 1.46 ± 0.41 |
LDL-cholesterol (mmol/l) | 3.2 ± 0.9 | 3.4 ± 0.9 | 3.6 ± 1.0 | 3.5 ± 0.9 |
Triacylglycerol (mmol/l) | 0.96 (0.70–1.36) | 1.41 (1.02–2.00) | 1.16 (0.84–1.63) | 1.12 (0.84–1.62) |
Glucose (mmol/l) | 4.9 ± 0.5 | 5.7 ± 0.7 | 5.1 ± 0.5 | 5.1 ± 0.5 |
HbA1c (mmol/mol) | 36 ± 3 | 40 ± 4 | 38 ± 3 | 38 ± 4 |
HbA1c (%) | 5.5 ± 0.3 | 5.9 ± 0.3 | 5.7 ± 0.3 | 5.7 ± 0.3 |
Current smokers (%) | 20.4 | 22.3 | 25.8 | 26.9 |
Former smokers (%) | 30.8 | 39.4 | 40.6 | 40.4 |
Metabolic syndrome (%) | 12.8 | 57.5 | 25.1 | 25.6 |
Skin autofluorescence (AU) | 1.90 ± 0.42 | 2.13 ± 0.45 | 2.18 ± 0.47 | 2.33 ± 0.52 |
SAF z score | −0.01 ± 0.81 | 0.16 ± 0.95 | 0.16 ± 0.96 | 0.33 ± 1.13 |
Analysis |
n
| OR | 95% CI | p value |
---|---|---|---|---|
Univariate | ||||
SAF (AU) | 72,880 | 3.84 | 3.57, 4.11 | 1.5 × 10−307 |
Age (years) | 72,880 | 1.07 | 1.07, 1.08 | <1.0 × 10−350 |
Male sex (y/n) | 72,880 | 1.53 | 1.42, 1.64 | 3.9 × 10−31 |
BMI (kg/m2) | 72,866 | 1.10 | 1.09, 1.10 | 2.3 × 10−141 |
Waist circumference (cm) | 72,866 | 1.05 | 1.04, 1.05 | 3.0 × 10−227 |
Glucose (mmol/l) | 72,223 | 4.02 | 3.77, 4.29 | <1.0 × 10−350 |
HbA1c (mmol/mol) | 72,254 | 1.26 | 1.24, 1.27 | <1.0 × 10−350 |
SBP (mmHg) | 72,853 | 1.03 | 1.03, 1.04 | 1.0 × 10−199 |
DBP (mmHg) | 72,853 | 1.04 | 1.04, 1.04 | 1.5 × 10−100 |
Heart rate (b/min) | 72,853 | 1.00 | 1.00, 1.01 | 0.021 |
Cholesterol (mmol/l) | 72,446 | 1.33 | 1.29, 1.38 | 5.8 × 10−60 |
Triacylglycerol (mmol/l) | 72,446 | 1.35 | 1.31, 1.40 | 5.2 × 10−81 |
eGFR (ml/min) | 72,423 | 0.97 | 0.97, 0.97 | 1.0 × 10−155 |
Former smoker (y/n) | 72,127 | 1.51 | 1.40, 1.62 | 9.0 × 10−28 |
Current smoker (y/n) | 72,127 | 1.29 | 1.19, 1.40 | 2.4 × 10−9 |
Coffee consumption (cups/day) | 71,396 | 1.09 | 1.07, 1.11 | 1.3 × 10−27 |
Metabolic syndrome (y/n) | 72,405 | 3.76 | 3.48, 4.06 | 1.5 × 10−250 |
Multivariate model 1a | 72,880 | |||
SAF (AU) | 1.88 | 1.72, 2.05 | 4.4 × 10−46 | |
Age (years) | 1.06 | 1.06, 1.06 | 1.4 × 10−241 | |
Multivariate model 2b | 72,405 | |||
SAF (AU) | 1.77 | 1.62, 1.93 | 1.2 × 10−36 | |
Age (years) | 1.06 | 1.05, 1.06 | 1.8 × 10−209 | |
Metabolic syndrome (y/n) | 2.80 | 2.58, 3.03 | 3.1 × 10−142 | |
Multivariate model 3ac | 72,223 | |||
SAF (AU) | 1.79 | 1.64, 1.96 | 1.1 × 10−37 | |
Age (years) | 1.05 | 1.05, 1.05 | 2.0 × 10−160 | |
Glucose (mmol/l) | 2.90 | 2.71, 3.11 | 1.7 × 10−210 | |
Multivariate model 3bc | 72,254 | |||
SAF (AU) | 1.78 | 1.63, 1.95 | 6.6 × 10−38 | |
Age (years) | 1.05 | 1.04, 1.05 | 8.3 × 10−128 | |
HbA1c (mmol/mol) | 1.16 | 1.14, 1.17 | 1.3 × 10−126 | |
Multivariate model 4d | 72,113 | |||
SAF (AU) | 1.55 | 1.41, 1.69 | 9.7 × 10−21 | |
Age (years) | 1.06 | 1.06, 1.07 | 7.7 × 10−229 | |
Male sex (y/n) | 1.10 | 1.02, 1.19 | 0.013 | |
Waist circumference (cm) | 1.04 | 1.03, 1.04 | 2.5 × 10−104 | |
Current smoker (y/n) | 1.62 | 1.48, 1.78 | 3.6 × 10−26 | |
Multivariate model 5e | 70,612 | |||
SAF (AU) | 1.54 | 1.40, 1.70 | 3.9 × 10−18 | |
Age (years) | 1.06 | 1.05, 1.06 | 1.4 × 10−107 | |
Glucose (mmol/l) | 2.37 | 2.20, 2.55 | 1.3 × 10−112 | |
Current smoker (y/n) | 1.61 | 1.46, 1.77 | 8.3 × 10−23 | |
Waist circumference (cm) | 1.02 | 1.02, 1.02 | 2.6 × 10−26 | |
Male sex (y/n) | 0.93 | 0.86, 1.02 | 0.108 | |
SBP (mmHg) | 1.01 | 1.01, 1.01 | 3.6 × 10−10 | |
Cholesterol (mmol/l) | 0.93 | 0.89, 0.97 | 0.001 | |
Triacylglycerol (mmol/l) | 1.15 | 1.10, 1.19 | 5.4 × 10−13 | |
eGFR (ml/min) | 1.00 | 1.00, 1.01 | 0.176 | |
Coffee consumption (cups/day) | 0.99 | 0.97, 1.00 | 0.135 |
Analysis | New T2DM | New CVD | Death | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OR (95% CI) | p value | OR (95% CI) | p value | OR (95% CI) | p value | |
Univariate analysisa | ||||||
SAF (AU) | 2.74 (2.44, 3.07) | 1.0 × 10−68 | 3.25 (2.93, 3.60) | 2.5 × 10−111 | 5.10 (4.56, 5.70) | 4.1 × 10−181 |
Age (years) | 1.05 (1.05, 1.06) | 1.5 × 10−91 | 1.07 (1.06, 1.07) | 3.1 × 10−184 | 1.10 (1.09, 1.10) | 3.4 × 10−239 |
Male sex (y/n) | 1.45 (1.28, 1.64) | 2.5 × 10−9 | 1.51 (1.35, 1.69) | 4.3 × 10−13 | 1.64 (1.44, 1.87) | 8.6 × 10−14 |
BMI (kg/m2) | 1.16 (1.14, 1.17) | 1.1 × 10−174 | 1.06 (1.05, 1.07) | 3.3 × 10−22 | 1.05 (1.03, 1.06) | 1.6 × 10−11 |
Waist (cm) | 1.07 (1.06, 1.07) | 9.2 × 10−195 | 1.03 (1.03, 1.04) | 1.4 × 10−52 | 1.03 (1.03, 1.04) | 4.4 × 10−37 |
Glucose (mmol/l) | 12.5 (11.3, 13.9) | <1.0 × 10−350 | 1.82 (1.64, 2.02) | 8.2 × 10−30 | 2.20 (1.95, 2.47) | 1.6 × 10−39 |
HbA1c (mmol/mol) | 1.45 (1.43, 1.48) | <1.0 × 10−350 | 1.15 (1.13, 1.17) | 1.5 × 10−60 | 1.17 (1.15, 1.19) | 6.6 × 10−57 |
SBP (mmHg) | 1.03 (1.03, 1.04) | 6.3 × 10−74 | 1.03 (1.03, 1.03) | 6.9 × 10−73 | 1.03 (1.03, 1.04) | 1.1 × 10−71 |
DBP (mmHg) | 1.04 (1.04, 1.05) | 2.7 × 10−43 | 1.04 (1.03, 1.04) | 1.3 × 10−41 | 1.03 (1.03, 1.04) | 1.4 × 10−23 |
Heart rate (bpm) | 1.01 (1.01, 1.02) | 7.1 × 10−5 | 1.00 (1.00, 1.01) | 0.944 | 1.00 (0.99, 1.00) | 0.883 |
Cholesterol (mmol/l) | 1.20 (1.14, 1.28) | 5.7 × 10−10 | 1.40 (1.33, 1.48) | 5.9 × 10−37 | 1.33 (1.25, 1.41) | 2.9 × 10−19 |
Triacylglycerol (mmol/l) | 1.44 (1.39, 1.50) | 1.1 × 10−72 | 1.20 (1.15, 1.26) | 1.4 × 10−17 | 1.18 (1.12, 1.24) | 1.9 × 10−10 |
eGFR (ml/min) | 0.98 (0.98, 0.98) | 1.5 × 10−24 | 0.97 (0.96, 0.97) | 1.2 × 10−69 | 0.96 (0.95, 0.96) | 6.8 × 10−91 |
Former smoker (y/n) | 1.44 (1.27, 1.63) | 1.1 × 10−8 | 1.52 (1.36, 1.70) | 6.6 × 10−13 | 1.53 (1.34, 1.75) | 3.9 × 10−10 |
Current smoker (y/n) | 1.11 (0.96, 1.28) | 0.172 | 1.34 (1.18, 1.52) | 7.0 × 10−6 | 1.45 (1.25, 1.67) | 8.4 × 10−7 |
Coffee (cups/day) | 1.08 (1.06, 1.11) | 1.8 × 10−9 | 1.09 (1.07, 1.12) | 7.6 × 10−13 | 1.10 (1.07, 1.13) | 1.0 × 10−10 |
Metabolic syndrome (y/n) | 8.9 (7.9, 10.1) | 6.6 × 10−262 | 2.14 (1.88, 2.43) | 1.4 × 10−30 | 2.24 (1.93, 2.60) | 3.8 × 10−26 |
Multivariate model 1a | ||||||
SAF (AU) | 1.64 (1.42, 1.90) | 3.1 × 10−11 | 1.62 (1.41, 1.84) | 1.5 × 10−12 | 2.37 (2.06, 2.73) | 1.7 × 10−33 |
Age (years) | 1.04 (1.04, 1.05) | 3.5 × 10−44 | 1.06 (1.05, 1.06) | 1.2 × 10−102 | 1.08 (1.07, 1.08) | 2.4 × 10−127 |
Multivariate model 2b | ||||||
SAF (AU) | 1.43 (1.22, 1.66) | 4.0 × 10−6 | 1.58 (1.38, 1.80) | 3.1 × 10−11 | 2.32 (2.01, 2.67) | 8.8 × 10−31 |
Age (years) | 1.03 (1.03, 1.04) | 3.5 × 10−26 | 1.06 (1.05, 1.06) | 4.2 × 10−96 | 1.08 (1.07, 1.08) | 3.1 × 10−122 |
Metabolic syndrome (y/n) | 7.3 (6.4, 8.3) | 4.3 × 10−208 | 1.54 (1.35, 1.76) | 1.6 × 10−10 | 1.44 (1.23, 1.68) | 4.0 × 10−6 |
Multivariate model 3ac | ||||||
SAF (AU) | 1.40 (1.20, 1.65) | 3.0 × 10−5 | 1.60 (1.40, 1.83) | 6.0 × 10−12 | 2.34 (2.03, 2.70) | 1.9 × 10−31 |
Age (years) | 1.02 (1.01, 1.02) | 1.0 × 10−6 | 1.06 (1.05, 1.06) | 2.4 × 10−93 | 1.08 (1.07, 1.08) | 9.8 × 10−116 |
Glucose (mmol/l) | 11.2 (10.0, 12.5) | <1.0 × 10−350 | 1.20 (1.08, 1.34) | 0.001 | 1.29 (1.14, 1.46) | 7.2 × 10−5 |
Multivariate model 3bc | ||||||
SAF (AU) | 1.41 (1.21, 1.65) | 8.0 × 10−6 | 1.58 (1.38, 1.81) | 2.1 × 10−11 | 2.37 (2.06, 2.73) | 1.4 × 10−32 |
Age (years) | 1.01 (1.00, 1.01) | 0.058 | 1.06 (1.05, 1.06) | 1.5 × 10−79 | 1.08 (1.07, 1.08) | 3.5 × 10−107 |
HbA1c (mmol/mol) | 1.43 (1.40, 1.46) | 1.0 × 10−265 | 1.05 (1.03, 1.06) | 2.0 × 10−6 | 1.02 (1.00, 1.04) | 0.035 |
Multivariate model 4d | ||||||
SAF (AU) | 1.32 (1.12, 1.54) | 0.001 | 1.35 (1.18, 1.56) | 2.1 × 10−5 | 1.98 (1.71, 2.30) | 1.0 × 10−19 |
Age (years) | 1.04 (1.03, 1.04) | 1.1 × 10−33 | 1.06 (1.06, 1.07) | 1.5 × 10−103 | 1.08 (1.08, 1.09) | 3.6 × 10−134 |
Male sex (y/n) | 0.91 (0.80, 1.04) | 0.155 | 1.21 (1.07, 1.36) | 0.002 | 1.32 (1.14, 1.52) | 1.2 × 10−4 |
Waist (cm) | 1.06 (1.06, 1.07) | 1.4 × 10−153 | 1.02 (1.02, 1.02) | 1.0 × 10−14 | 1.01 (1.01, 1.02) | 7.3 × 10−5 |
Current smoker (y/n) | 1.28 (1.10, 1.49) | 0.002 | 1.70 (1.48, 1.94) | 1.8 × 10−14 | 1.96 (1.68, 2.30) | 5.0 × 10−17 |
Multivariate model 5e | ||||||
SAF (AU) | 1.26 (1.06, 1.48) | 0.008 | 1.33 (1.16, 1.54) | 6.0 × 10−5 | 1.96 (1.69, 2.28) | 6.7 × 10−19 |
Age (years) | 1.02 (1.02, 1.03) | 3.8 × 10−8 | 1.06 (1.05, 1.06) | 3.4 × 10−58 | 1.08 (1.08, 1.09) | 9.1 × 10−84 |
Male sex (y/n) | 0.65 (0.57, 0.75) | 6.4 × 10−10 | 1.16 (1.03, 1.31) | 0.019 | 1.25 (1.08, 1.44) | 0.003 |
Waist (cm) | 1.03 (1.02, 1.04) | 1.2 × 10−26 | 1.02 (1.01, 1.02) | 2.4 × 10−9 | 1.01 (1.00, 1.02) | 0.009 |
Glucose (mmol/l) | 8.9 (8.0, 10.0) | 2.0 × 10−302 | 0.96 (0.85, 1.08) | 0.458 | 1.10 (0.96, 1.26) | 0.172 |
SBP (mmHg) | 1.00 (1.00, 1.01) | 0.175 | 1.01 (1.01, 1.01) | 2.7 × 10−7 | 1.01 (1.00, 1.01) | 4.5 × 10−4 |
Cholesterol (mmol/l) | 0.84 (0.78, 0.90) | 9.4 × 10−7 | 1.05 (0.99, 1.11) | 0.149 | 0.91 (0.85, 0.98) | 0.014 |
Triacylglycerol (mmol/l) | 1.24 (1.18, 1.30) | 9.9 × 10−19 | 1.06 (0.99, 1.13) | 0.088 | 1.05 (0.96, 1.14) | 0.275 |
eGFR (ml/min) | 1.00 (1.00, 1.01) | 0.120 | 1.00 (0.99, 1.00) | 0.706 | 1.00 (1.00, 1.01) | 0.641 |
Current smoker (y/n) | 1.22 (1.04, 1.44) | 0.017 | 1.69 (1.47, 1.94) | 7.7 × 10−14 | 1.96 (1.67, 2.30) | 1.5 × 10−16 |
Outcome |
n
| n (%) events | OR SAF z score | p value |
---|---|---|---|---|
Composite | ||||
Age (years) | ||||
≤35 | 17,412 | 144 (0.8) | 1.86 (1.13, 3.06) | 0.014 |
36–50 | 36,963 | 1272 (3.4) | 2.02 (1.76, 2.32) | 2.1 × 10−23 |
51–60 | 10,605 | 651 (6.1) | 1.70 (1.40, 2.06) | 6.8 × 10−8 |
≥61 | 7900 | 1064 (13.5) | 1.84 (1.60, 2.12) | 2.1 × 10−17 |
Type 2 diabetes | ||||
Age (years) | ||||
≤35 | 17,412 | 66 (0.4) | 1.53 (0.71, 3.29) | 0.277 |
36–50 | 36,963 | 489 (1.3) | 2.03 (1.64, 2.52) | 8.8 × 10−11 |
51–60 | 10,605 | 230 (2.2) | 1.28 (0.92, 1.79) | 0.140 |
≥61 | 7900 | 271 (3.4) | 1.39 (1.07, 1.80) | 0.014 |
CVD | ||||
Age (years) | ||||
≤35 | 17,412 | 53 (0.3) | 1.56 (0.66, 3.71) | 0.310 |
36–50 | 36,963 | 502 (1.4) | 1.52 (1.21, 1.92) | 3.1 × 10−4 |
51–60 | 10,605 | 284 (2.7) | 1.62 (1.22, 2.15) | 0.001 |
≥61 | 7900 | 419 (5.3) | 1.68 (1.37, 2.06) | 7.8 × 10−7 |
Mortality | ||||
Age (years) | ||||
≤35 | 17,412 | 25 (0.1) | 3.45 (1.41, 8.44) | 0.007 |
36–50 | 36,963 | 306 (0.8) | 2.78 (2.18, 3.54) | 1.8 × 10−16 |
51–60 | 10,605 | 164 (1.6) | 2.47 (1.75, 3.49) | 3.0 × 10−7 |
≥61 | 7900 | 433 (5.5) | 2.13 (1.75, 2.60) | 7.7 × 10−14 |