Background
Methods
The FluAid model
Baseline model assumptions
Population data
Time distribution
"More severe" scenario assumptions
Results
Week of pandemic in NZ | Deaths (No.) | Hospital – isations (No.) | Illnesses (No.)a
| Lost workdays from deaths (No.)b
| Lost workdays from hospitalisations (No.) | Lost workdays from illness (No.)a
| Total lost workdays (No.) | Reduction in days worked (%)c
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 0.0 | 0 | 5 – 11 | 0 | 1 – 2 | 10 – 23 | 11 – 25 | 01 – 0.2% |
2 | 0.1 | 1 | 26 – 61 | 1 | 5 – 11 | 56 – 130 | 62 – 142 | 0.4 – 0.9% |
3 | 0.2 | 1 – 3 | 59 – 137 | 2 | 12 – 25 | 126 – 294 | 139 – 321 | 0.9 – 2.1% |
4 | 0.3 | 2 – 4 | 77 – 180 | 3 | 15 – 33 | 165 – 386 | 184 – 422 | 1.2 – 2.7% |
5 | 0.2 | 1 – 2 | 43 – 101 | 4 | 9 – 19 | 93 – 217 | 106 – 240 | 0.7 – 1.6% |
6 | 0.1 | 1 – 1 | 20 – 47 | 5 | 4 – 9 | 44 – 101 | 52 – 115 | 0.3 – 0.7% |
7 | 0.0 | 0 | 5 – 12 | 5 | 1 – 2 | 11 – 26 | 17 – 33 | 0.1 – 0.2% |
8 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 – 7 | 5 | 1 | 7 – 16 | 12 – 22 | 0.1% |
Totald
| 1 | 6 – 13 | 239 – 556 | 25 | 47 – 102 | 512 – 1192 | 584 – 1320 | 0.5 – 1.1% |
Week of pandemic in NZ | Deaths (No.) | Hospital-isations (No.) | Illness (No.)a
| Lost workdays from deaths (No.)a
| Lost workdays from hospitalisations (No.) | Lost workdays from illness (No.)a
| Lost workdays from caring for others | Total lost workdays (No.) | Reduction in days worked (%)a
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 0.2 | 1 | 64 | 1 | 13 | 184 | 88 | 285 | 1.9% |
2 | 0.4 | 3 | 161 | 3 | 32 | 459 | 220 | 713 | 4.6% |
3 | 0.8 | 6 | 321 | 7 | 64 | 918 | 439 | 1428 | 9.3% |
4 | 0.4 | 3 | 161 | 9 | 32 | 459 | 220 | 719 | 4.7% |
5 | 0.2 | 1 | 64 | 10 | 13 | 184 | 88 | 294 | 1.9% |
6 | 0.1 | 1 | 32 | 10 | 6 | 92 | 44 | 152 | 1.0% |
Total* | 2 | 14 | 803 | 39 | 160 | 2294 | 1098 | 3591 | 2.9% |
Discussion
Impact on health and workdays
Implications for the health sector
Limitations with the modelling
-
various international and national public health interventions (as recommended by WHO [1]) may reduce the impact of pandemic influenza;
-
at least for subsequent pandemic waves, an appropriate vaccine may be available;
-
antivirals could prevent infection and reduce morbidity amongst the medical workforce and the rest of the population [23];
-
improved treatment could lower hospitalisation and mortality rates (relative to the figures used in this model).