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International Journal of Public Health

Erschienen in:

01.04.2012 | Original Article

Time series analysis of Japanese encephalitis and weather in Linyi City, China

verfasst von: Hualiang Lin, Liuqing Yang, Qiyong Liu, Tong Wang, Sarah R. Hossain, Suzanne C. Ho, Linwei Tian

Erschienen in: International Journal of Public Health | Ausgabe 2/2012

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Abstract

Objectives

To examine the relationship between meteorological factors and epidemiological pattern of Japanese encephalitis in Linyi City during 1956–2004.

Methods

Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to evaluate the relationship between monthly JE incidence and weather factors. Logarithmic transformation was applied to the JE incidence series to assure the normality and homogeneity of variance of the residuals. The effect of mass vaccination on JE incidence was also evaluated using a transfer function in the time series analysis.

Results

The analysis suggested that monthly average temperature [β = 0.0574, 95% confidence interval (CI) = (0.0172, 0.0976)] and relative humidity [β = 0.0082, 95% CI = (0.0004, 0.0158)] were positively associated with the logarithmic incidence of Japanese encephalitis after adjusting for mass vaccination in this area.

Conclusions

Weather variables might be treated as possible predictors of Japanese encephalitis incidence for regions with similar geographic, weather, and socio-economic conditions to Linyi, China.

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Titel: Time series analysis of Japanese encephalitis and weather in Linyi City, China
verfasst von: Hualiang Lin
Liuqing Yang
Qiyong Liu
Tong Wang
Sarah R. Hossain
Suzanne C. Ho
Linwei Tian
Publikationsdatum: 01.04.2012
Verlag: SP Birkhäuser Verlag Basel
Erschienen in: International Journal of Public Health / Ausgabe 2/2012
Print ISSN: 1661-8556
Elektronische ISSN: 1661-8564
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00038-011-0236-x

Springer Medizin

Abstract

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

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