Erschienen in:
23.10.2017 | CE - Clinical Notes
Understanding and improving decisions in clinical medicine (III): towards cognitively informed clinical thinking
verfasst von:
Vincenzo Crupi, Fabrizio Elia, Franco Aprà
Erschienen in:
Internal and Emergency Medicine
|
Ausgabe 3/2018
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Excerpt
Clinical practice is often associated with judgment and with uncertainty, and rightly so. Since the logic of uncertainty is probability theory, understanding clinical judgment requires consideration of how clinicians assess probabilities. Suppose, for instance, that you are involved in a mammography screening program for the early detection of breast cancer. A 50-year-old woman with no symptoms has a positive test result. The pretest probability of breast cancer in her age group is 1%, and the sensitivity and specificity of the test are 80 and 90%, respectively (so the false positive rate is 10%). In light of her positive mammography, what is the probability that your patient actually has breast cancer? …