Introduction
Methods
Ethics statement
Patients
Data collection
Predictor selection and development of the prediction model
Validation of the prediction model
Statistical analysis
Results
Baseline characteristics
Variables | All patients (N = 1045) | Training set (N = 696) | Validation set (N = 349) | P-value |
---|---|---|---|---|
Gender, n (%) | 0.966 | |||
Male | 730 (69.9%) | 487 (70.0%) | 243 (69.6%) | |
Female | 315 (30.1%) | 209 (30.0%) | 106 (30.4%) | |
Age, years | 67.31 ± 13.60 | 66.70 ± 13.90 | 68.54 ± 12.90 | 0.039 |
Etiology, n (%) | 0.759 | |||
Diabetic | 271 (25.9%) | 177 (25.4%) | 94 (26.9%) | |
Nephrosclerosis | 411 (39.3%) | 270 (38.8%) | 141 (40.4%) | |
Glomerulonephritis | 197 (18.9%) | 137 (19.7%) | 60 (17.2%) | |
Others | 166 (15.9%) | 112 (16.1%) | 54 (15.5%) | |
Hemoglobin, g/dL | 11.97 ± 2.28 | 12.02 ± 2.29 | 11.87 ± 2.26 | 0.304 |
Serum albumin, g/dL | 3.85 ± 0.63 | 3.87 ± 0.63 | 3.82 ± 0.64 | 0.211 |
Creatinine, g/dL | 2.26 ± 1.72 | 2.25 ± 1.72 | 2.28 ± 1.71 | 0.825 |
eGFR, mL/min/1.73 m2 | 32.95 ± 18.82 | 33.15 ± 18.78 | 32.56 ± 18.90 | 0.632 |
Proteinuria, n (%) | 0.919 | |||
Negative | 381 (36.5%) | 255 (36.6%) | 126 (36.1%) | |
Positive | 664 (63.5%) | 441 (63.4%) | 223 (63.9%) | |
Urinary occult blood, n (%) | 0.361 | |||
Negative | 689 (65.9%) | 466 (67.0%) | 223 (63.9%) | |
Positive | 356 (34.1%) | 230 (33.0%) | 126 (36.1%) | |
UPCR, g/gCr | 2.17 ± 3.24 | 2.04 ± 2.98 | 2.42 ± 3.69 | 0.073 |
Hypertension, n (%) | 0.864 | |||
No | 101 (9.7%) | 66 (9.5%) | 35 (10.0%) | |
Yes | 944 (90.3%) | 630 (90.5%) | 314 (90.0%) | |
History of CVD, n (%) | 0.183 | |||
No | 765 (73.2%) | 519 (74.6%) | 246 (70.5%) | |
Yes | 280 (26.8%) | 177 (25.4%) | 103 (29.5%) | |
Diabetes, n (%) | 0.693 | |||
No | 651 (62.3%) | 437 (62.8%) | 214 (61.3%) | |
Yes | 394 (37.7%) | 259 (37.2%) | 135 (38.7%) | |
Use of RAAS inhibitor, n (%) | 0.047 | |||
No | 380 (36.4%) | 238 (34.2%) | 142 (40.7%) | |
Yes | 665 (63.6%) | 458 (65.8%) | 207 (59.3%) | |
Use of calcium channel blocker, n (%) | 0.616 | |||
No | 547 (52.3%) | 360 (51.7%) | 187 (53.6%) | |
Yes | 498 (47.7%) | 336 (48.3%) | 162 (46.4%) | |
Use of diuretics, n (%) | 0.154 | |||
No | 694 (66.4%) | 473 (68.0%) | 221 (63.3%) | |
Yes | 351 (33.6%) | 223 (32.0%) | 128 (36.7%) | |
Vital status, n (%) | 0.773 | |||
Alive | 972 (93.0%) | 649 (93.2%) | 323 (92.6%) | |
Deceased | 73(7.0%) | 47(6.8%) | 26 (7.4%) | |
CKD progression, n (%) | 0.479 | |||
No | 785 (75.1%) | 528 (75.9%) | 257 (73.6%) | |
Yes | 260 (24.9%) | 168 (24.1%) | 92 (26.4%) |
Prognostic factors of CKD
Variables | Univariate | P-value | Multivariate | P-value |
---|---|---|---|---|
HR (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) | |||
Gender | ||||
Male | Ref. | – | Ref. | – |
Female | 1.018 (0.734–1.412) | 0.914 | – | |
Age | 0.989 (0.979–0.999) | 0.028 | 0.998 (0.985–1.011) | 0.720 |
Etiology | ||||
Diabetic | Ref. | Ref. | – | |
Nephrosclerosis | 0.147 (0.098–0.220) | 0.000 | 0.540 (0.297–0.979) | 0.042 |
Glomerulonephritis | 0.230 (0.148–0.359) | 0.000 | 0.437 (0.228–0.836) | 0.012 |
Others | 0.170 (0.097–0.299) | 0.000 | 0.269 (0.118–0.618) | 0.002 |
Hemoglobin | 0.701 (0.655–0.751) | 0.000 | 0.821 (0.749–0.900) | 0.000 |
Serum albumin | 0.267 (0.216–0.330) | 0.000 | 0.869 (0.624–1.212) | 0.409 |
Creatinine | 1.429 (1.370–1.490) | 0.000 | 1.314 (1.221–1.413) | 0.000 |
Proteinuria | ||||
Negative | Ref. | Ref. | ||
Positive | 28.395 (10.53–76.571) | 0.000 | 7.214 (2.547–20.436) | 0.000 |
Urinary occult blood | ||||
Negative | Ref. | Ref. | ||
Positive | 2.156 (1.592–2.919) | 0.000 | 1.096 (0.779–1.543) | 0.597 |
UPCR | 1.305 (1.264–1.348) | 0.000 | 1.192 (1.126–1.261) | 0.000 |
Hypertension | ||||
No | Ref. | Ref. | ||
Yes | 5.976 (1.908–18.719) | 0.002 | 0.930 (0.271–3.197) | 0.909 |
History of CVD | ||||
No | Ref. | – | Ref. | – |
Yes | 1.366 (0.977–1.910) | 0.068 | – | |
Diabetes | ||||
No | Ref. | – | Ref. | – |
Yes | 3.005 (2.205–4.096) | 0.000 | 0.898 (0.527–1.528) | 0.690 |
Use of RAAS inhibitor | ||||
No | Ref. | – | Ref. | – |
Yes | 1.808 (1.259–2.595) | 0.001 | 0.928 (0.627–1.374) | 0.710 |
Use of calcium channel blocker | ||||
No | Ref. | − | Ref. | – |
Yes | 2.024 (1.474–2.778) | 0.000 | 1.298 (0.925–1.821) | 0.132 |
Use of diuretics | ||||
No | Ref. | – | Ref. | – |
Yes | 2.833 (2.092–3.836) | 0.000 | 1.04 (0.741–1.461) | 0.819 |