Background
Methods
Study design
Survey Country | Survey Year | Sample (N) | Sample (%) |
---|---|---|---|
Angola | 2015-16 | 5645 | 2.43 |
Benin | 2017-18 | 8838 | 3.18 |
Burkina Faso | 2010 | 11,842 | 5.09 |
Burundi | 2016-17 | 9116 | 3.92 |
Cameroon | 2018 | 6291 | 2.70 |
Chad | 2014-15 | 10,055 | 4.32 |
Comoros | 2012 | 2152 | 0.92 |
Congo | 2011-12 | 6137 | 2.64 |
Congo DR | 2013-14 | 11,479 | 4.93 |
Côte d’Ivoire | 2011-12 | 5145 | 2.21 |
Ethiopia | 2016 | 8598 | 3.69 |
Gabon | 2012 | 3123 | 1.34 |
Gambia | 2013 | 5561 | 2.39 |
Ghana | 2014 | 4238 | 1.82 |
Guinea | 2018 | 5905 | 2.39 |
Kenya | 2014 | 7556 | 3.25 |
Lesotho | 2014 | 3148 | 1.35 |
Liberia | 2013 | 4709 | 2.02 |
Malawi | 2015-16 | 12,353 | 5.31 |
Mali | 2018 | 6913 | 2.97 |
Namibia | 2013 | 2329 | 1.00 |
Niger | 2012 | 8416 | 3.62 |
Nigeria | 2018 | 24,342 | 10.46 |
Rwanda | 2014-15 | 6405 | 2.75 |
Senegal | 2010-11 | 8020 | 3.45 |
Sierra Leone | 2013 | 8802 | 3.78 |
South Africa | 2016 | 2310 | 0.99 |
Tanzania | 2015-16 | 6886 | 2.96 |
Togo | 2013-14 | 5167 | 2.22 |
Uganda | 2016 | 9399 | 4.04 |
Zambia | 2018 | 6512 | 2.80 |
Zimbabwe | 2015 | 5392 | 2.32 |
Total
|
-
|
232,784
|
100
|
Outcome variable
Independent variables
Determinants | Frequency (n) | Percentage (%) | Desire for more children %[95% CI] | Bivariate logistic regression | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
cOR
|
Lower
|
Upper
| ||||
Age
| ||||||
15–19 | 10,952 | 4.7 | 95.3[94.8–95.9] | 1 | - | - |
20–24 | 39,321 | 16.9 | 91.3[91.0–91.8] | 0.58*** | 0.52 | 0.63 |
25–29 | 52,378 | 22.5 | 83.2[82.7–83.7] | 0.27*** | 0.25 | 0.29 |
30–34 | 46,206 | 19.8 | 67.6[66.9–68.3] | 0.11*** | 0.10 | 0.12 |
35–39 | 38,558 | 16.6 | 49.3[48.5–50.0] | 0.05*** | 0.05 | 0.06 |
40–44 | 26,875 | 11.6 | 29.5[28.8–30.0] | 0.02*** | 0.02 | 0.03 |
45–49 | 18,494 | 7.9 | 15.3[14.6–16.0] | 0.01*** | 0.01 | 0.01 |
Highest educational level
| ||||||
No education | 91,834 | 39.5 | 69.3[68.7–69.8] | 1 | - | - |
Primary | 72,358 | 31.1 | 60.0[59.4–60.5] | 0.67*** | 0.66 | 0.68 |
Secondary | 60,054 | 25.8 | 66.7[66.1–67.4] | 0.90*** | 0.88 | 0.92 |
Higher | 8538 | 3.7 | 65.6[64.1–67.1] | 0.81*** | 0.77 | 0.85 |
Partner’s highest educational level
| ||||||
No education | 79,114 | 34.0 | 70.9[70.3–71.5] | 1 | - | - |
Primary | 62,759 | 27.0 | 59.2[58.6–59.8] | 0.59*** | 0.58 | 0.60 |
Secondary | 73,475 | 31.6 | 65.3[64.8–65.9] | 0.79*** | 0.77 | 0.81 |
Higher | 17,436 | 7.5 | 66.3[65.3–67.3] | 0.79*** | 0.76 | 0.81 |
Parity
| ||||||
One birth | 39,400 | 16.9 | 94.4[94.0–94.7] | 1 | - | - |
Two births | 44,071 | 18.9 | 83.9[83.3–84.4] | 0.33*** | 0.31 | 0.34 |
Three births | 38,635 | 16.6 | 72.4[71.8–73.1] | 0.16*** | 0.16 | 0.17 |
Four or more births | 110,677 | 47.5 | 47.1[46.4–47.7] | 0.05*** | 0.05 | 0.06 |
Current use of contraceptives
| ||||||
No | 161,963 | 69.6 | 69.3[68.8–69.7] |
1
| - | - |
Yes | 70,821 | 30.4 | 56.8[56.3–57.4] | 0.58*** | 0.57 | 0.59 |
Exposure to mass media
| ||||||
No | 71,829 | 30.9 | 68.3[67.8–68.9] | 1 | - | - |
Yes | 160,955 | 69.1 | 64.2[63.7–64.7] | 0.85*** | 0.83 | 0.86 |
Ideal number of children
| ||||||
0–3 | 45,448 | 19.5 | 50.8[50.1–51.6] | 1 | - | - |
4–5 | 85,945 | 36.9 | 64.7[64.3–65.2] | 0.82*** | 1.78 | 1.87 |
6+ | 101,391 | 43.6 | 72.2[71.6–72.7] | 2.57*** | 2.51 | 2.64 |
Decision making autonomy
| ||||||
Respondent alone | 16,056 | 6.9 | 48.9[47.7–50.1] | 1 | - | |
Otherwise | 216,728 | 93.1 | 66.6[66.2–67.0] | 1.91*** | 1.85 | 1.98 |
Number of living children
| ||||||
0 | 2321 | 1.0 | 96.6[95.6–97.5] | 1 | - | - |
1–3 | 132,802 | 57.1 | 82.2[81.8–82.6] | 0.19*** | 0.15 | 0.23 |
4+ | 97,662 | 41.9 | 43.3[42.7–43.9] | 0.03*** | 0.02 | 0.04 |
Type of place of residence
| ||||||
Urban | 79,553 | 34.2 | 63.4[62.8–64.1] | 1 | - | - |
Rural | 153,231 | 65.8 | 66.6[66.1–67.0] | 1.11*** | 1.09 | 1.13 |
Wealth index
| ||||||
Poorest | 54,275 | 23.3 | 69.1[68.4–69.9] | 1 | - | - |
Poorer | 48,520 | 20.8 | 66.8[66.1–67.4] | 0.90*** | 0.88 | 0.93 |
Middle | 45,632 | 19.6 | 65.1[64.4–65.8] | 0.84*** | 0.81 | 0.86 |
Richer | 43,324 | 18.6 | 64.2[63.5–64.9] | 0.81*** | 0.79 | 0.84 |
Richest | 41,033 | 17.6 | 62.7[62.0–63.5] | 0.77*** | 0.75 | 0.79 |
Statistical analyses
Ethical approval
Results
Bivariate analysis results on desire for more children across socio-demographic characteristics of childbearing women in SSA
Multilevel logistic regression results on the predictors of desire for more children among childbearing women in SSA
Variables | Null model | Model I | Model II | Model III |
---|---|---|---|---|
Fixed effects results | ||||
Age | ||||
15–19 | 1 | 1 | ||
20–24 | 1.31*** (1.18–1.45) | 1.31*** (1.18–1.45) | ||
25–29 | 1.19*** (1.07–1.31) | 1.19*** (1.07–1.31) | ||
30–34 | 0.70*** (0.63–0.78) | 0.70*** (0.63–0.78) | ||
35–39 | 0.32*** (0.29–0.36) | 0.32*** (0.29–0.36) | ||
40–44 | 0.12*** (0.11–0.13) | 0.12*** (0.11–0.13) | ||
45–49 | 0.04*** (0.03–0.04) | 0.04*** (0.03–0.05) | ||
Highest educational level | ||||
No education | 1 | 1 | ||
Primary | 0.72*** (0.70–0.75) | 0.72*** (0.70–0.75) | ||
Secondary | 0.78*** (0.75–0.81) | 0.78*** (0.75–0.81) | ||
Higher | 0.80*** (0.74–0.87) | 0.80*** (0.74–0.87) | ||
Partner’s highest educational level | ||||
No education | 1 | 1 | ||
Primary | 0.67*** (0.65–0.69) | 0.67*** (0.65–0.70) | ||
Secondary | 0.76*** (0.74–0.79) | 0.77*** (0.74–0.80) | ||
Higher | 0.88*** (0.83–0.93) | 0.88*** (0.83–0.94) | ||
Parity | ||||
One birth | 1 | |||
Two births | 0.29*** (0.28–0.31) | 0.29*** (0.28–0.31) | ||
Three births | 0.12*** (0.11–0.13) | 0.12*** (0.11–0.13) | ||
Four or more births | 0.10*** (0.09–0.11) | 0.10*** (0.09–0.11) | ||
Current use of contraceptives | ||||
No | 1 | 1 | ||
Yes | 0.68*** (0.66–0.70) | 0.68*** (0.66–0.70) | ||
Exposure to mass media | ||||
No | 1 | 1 | ||
Yes | 1.01 (0.98–1.03) | 1.01 (0.99–1.04) | ||
Ideal number of children | ||||
0–3 | 1 | 1 | ||
4–5 | 4.35*** (4.20–4.51) | 4.36*** (4.20–4.51) | ||
6+ | 16.77*** (16.09–17.48) | 16.76*** (16.08–17.48) | ||
Decision making autonomy | ||||
Respondent alone | 1 | 1 | ||
Otherwise | 1.58*** (1.51–1.65) | 1.58*** (1.50–1.65) | ||
Number of living children | ||||
0 | 1 | 1 | ||
1–3 | 0.26*** (0.20–0.34) | 0.26*** (0.21–0.34) | ||
4+ | 0.07*** (0.06–0.10) | 0.07*** (0.06–0.10) | ||
Type of place of residence | ||||
Urban | 1 | 1 | ||
Rural | 1.01 (0.99–1.04) | 1.07*** (1.04–1.10) | ||
Wealth index | ||||
Poorest | 1 | 1 | ||
Poorer | 0.91*** (0.88–0.93) | 0.97 (0.93-1.00) | ||
Middle | 0.84*** (0.82–0.87) | 0.96 (0.93-1.00) | ||
Richer | 0.82*** (0.80–0.85) | 1.00 (0.96–1.04) | ||
Richest | 0.78*** (0.76–0.81) | 1.03 (0.98–1.08) | ||
Random effects result | ||||
PSU variance (95% CI) | 0.034 (0.026–0.043) | 0.016 (0.011–0.021) | 0.03 (0.02–0.04) | 0.016 (0.011–0.021) |
ICC | 0.010 | 0.005 | 0.008 | 0.005 |
LR Test | χ2 = 283.67*** | χ2 = 90.32*** | χ2 = 240.51*** | χ2 = 91.36*** |
Wald chi-square | Reference | 55040.74*** | 392.00*** | 55038.94*** |
Model fitness | ||||
Log-likelihood | -147612.87 | -92583.856 | -147416.23 | -92570.407 |
AIC | 295229.7 | 185215.7 | 294846.5 | 185198.8 |
N | 232,784 | 232,784 | 232,784 | 232,784 |