Introduction
Methods
Search strategy
Study selection
Data extraction
Statistical analysis
Results
References, country | Study name | Follow-up period | Study size, sex, age, number of cases | Assessment of weight and height | Study quality score | Exposure and subgroup | Description of quantiles or categories | RR (95% CI) | Adjustment for confounders |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Huerta et al., 2007, United Kingdom [17] | UK General Practitioners Database | 1996–1997, ~ 1 year follow-up | Nested case–control study: 3994 cases 10,000 controls All ages | Measured | 7 | BMI | < 20 | 0.99 (0.84–1.17) | Age, sex, calendar year, smoking, visits to GP in the last year |
20–24 | 1.00 | ||||||||
25–29 | 1.11 (1.00–1.24) | ||||||||
≥ 30 | 1.33 (1.16–1.52) | ||||||||
Setty et al., 2007, USA [44] | Nurses’ Health Study II | 1991–2005, 14 years follow-up | 78,626 women, age 25–42 years: 892 cases 890 cases (BMI, baseline) 884 cases (BMI at age 18 years) 336 cases (waist circumference) 334 cases (hip circumference, waist-to-hip ratio) 838 cases (weight change) | Self-reported, validated | 7 | BMI, updated | < 21 21–22.9 23–24.9 25–29.9 30–34.9 ≥ 35 | 0.81 (0.63–1.06) 1 1.19 (0.94–1.51) 1.40 (1.13–1.73) 1.48 (1.15–1.91) 2.69 (2.12–3.40) | Age, alcohol, smoking status |
BMI, baseline | < 21 | 0.80 (0.65–0.99) | |||||||
21–22.9 | 1 | ||||||||
23–24.9 | 1.14 (0.92–1.41) | ||||||||
25–29.9 | 1.23 (1.00–1.50) | ||||||||
30–34.9 | 1.73 (1.36–2.20) | ||||||||
≥ 35 | 2.23 (1.72–2.87) | ||||||||
BMI at age 18 years | < 21 | 0.76 (0.65–0.90) | |||||||
21–22.9 | 1 | ||||||||
23–24.9 | 1.02 (0.81–1.28) | ||||||||
25–29.9 | 0.97 (0.75–1.25) | ||||||||
≥ 30 | 1.73 (1.24–2.41) | ||||||||
Waist circumference | < 31 in. | 1 | |||||||
31–33.9 | 1.32 (0.99–1.77) | ||||||||
34–36.9 | 1.59 (1.14–2.21) | ||||||||
37–40.0 | 1.73 (1.18–2.53) | ||||||||
>40 | 2.28 (1.57–3.32) | ||||||||
Hip circumference | 36 in. | 1 | |||||||
36.1–37.9 | 1.18 (0.79–1.75) | ||||||||
38.0–39.4 | 1.45 (1.01–2.10) | ||||||||
39.5–42.0 | 1.42 (0.99–2.05) | ||||||||
>42.0 | 2.22 (1.57–3.12) | ||||||||
Waist-to-hip ratio | 0.47–0.72 | 1 | |||||||
0.73–0.75 | 0.94 (0.65–1.36) | ||||||||
0.76–0.78 | 1.01 (0.70–1.45) | ||||||||
0.79–0.83 | 1.16 (0.83–1.63) | ||||||||
0.84–1.56 | 1.57 (1.13–2.17) | ||||||||
Weight change between age 18 years and baseline | − 5.0 lb | 0.85 (0.61–1.17) | |||||||
− 5.0 to + 4.9 | 1 | ||||||||
+ 5.0 to + 19.9 | 1.00 (0.80–1.25) | ||||||||
+ 20 to + 34.9 | 1.12 (0.88–1.43) | ||||||||
+ 35 | 1.54 (1.22–1.94) | ||||||||
Weight change between age 18 years and updated follow-up | − 5.0 lb | 0.91 (0.60–1.37) | |||||||
− 5.0 to + 4.9 | 1 | ||||||||
+ 5.0 to + 19.9 | 1.24 (0.93–1.64) | ||||||||
+ 20 to + 34.9 | 1.35 (1.01–1.80) | ||||||||
+ 35 | 1.88 (1.44–2.46) | ||||||||
Kumar et al. 2013, USA [45] | Nurses’ Health Study 1 | 1996–2008, 12 years follow-up | 67,300 women, mean age 62 years: 809 cases | Self-reported, validated | 7 | BMI, baseline | 18.5–24.9 | 1 | Age, alcohol, smoking status, physical activity |
25–29.9 | 1.11 (0.94–1.31) | ||||||||
30–34.9 | 1.71 (1.40–2.08) | ||||||||
≥ 35 | 1.63 (1.24–2.14) | ||||||||
722 cases (weight change) 675 cases (waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio) | Per 1 unit | 1.04 (1.02–1.05) | |||||||
BMI, updated | 18.5–24.9 | 1 | |||||||
25–29.9 | 1.21 (1.03–1.43) | ||||||||
30–34.9 | 1.63 (1.33–2.00) | ||||||||
≥ 35 | 2.03 (1.58–2.61) | ||||||||
Per 1 unit | 1.04 (1.03–1.05) | ||||||||
Waist circumference | 20–28 in. | 1 | |||||||
29–32 | 1.06 (0.87–1.29) | ||||||||
33–66 | 1.50 (1.24–1.82) | ||||||||
Per 1 SD | 1.20 (1.11–1.29) | ||||||||
Waist-to-hip ratio | 0.41–0.75 | 1 | |||||||
0.75–0.80 | 1.25 (1.03–1.51) | ||||||||
0.80–2.1 | 1.40 (1.15–1.70) | ||||||||
Per 1 SD | 1.09 (1.02–1.16) | ||||||||
Weight change | − < 5 lbs | 1.06 (0.69–1.64) | Weight change also adjusted for BMI at 18 years | ||||||
− 5 to + 4.9 | 1 | ||||||||
+ 5 to + 19.9 | 1.16 (0.81–1.64) | ||||||||
+ 20 to + 34.9 | 1.40 (0.99–1.96) | ||||||||
+ 35 | 1.79 (1.29–2.47) | ||||||||
Per 10 lbs | 1.08 (1.06–1.11) | ||||||||
Harpsøe et al. 2014, Denmark [46] | Danish National Birth Cohort | 1996–2002–2011, 11 years follow-up | 75,008 women, median age 30.2 years: 109 cases | Self-reported | 7 | BMI | < 18.5 | 0.91 (0.33–2.51) | Age, smoking, alcohol, parity, socioeconomic status |
18.5 to < 25 | 1 | ||||||||
25 to < 30 | 1.38 (0.87–2.20) | ||||||||
≥30 | 2.16 (1.25–3.72) | ||||||||
Per 1 unit | 1.03 (0.99–1.07) | ||||||||
Danielsen et al. 2016, Norway [47] | Tromsø Study | 1994–2008, 7–13 years follow-up | 8752 men and women, age 25–69 years: 409 cases | Measured | 7 | BMI | < 25 25 to < 30 ≥ 30 Per 2.5 units | 1 1.00 (0.80–1.25) 1.35 (0.97–1.87) 1.08 (1.01–1.16) | Age, sex (combined analysis), current smoking, daily alcohol intake, recreational physical activity score |
BMI, men | < 25 | 1 | |||||||
25 to < 30 | 0.96 (0.70–1.31) | ||||||||
≥ 30 | 1.24 (0.76–2.03) | ||||||||
Per 2.5 units | 1.10 (0.98–1.23) | ||||||||
BMI, women | <25 | 1 | |||||||
25 to < 30 | 1.05 (0.76–1.45) | ||||||||
≥ 30 | 1.48 (0.94–2.31) | ||||||||
Per 2.5 units | 1.07 (0.98–1.17) | ||||||||
BMI change, < 45 years age | 1 | 1 | |||||||
2 | 0.96 (0.59–1.57) | ||||||||
3 | 0.89 (0.54–1.48) | ||||||||
4 | 0.79 (0.46–1.35) | ||||||||
BMI change, ≥ 45 years age | 1 | 1 | |||||||
2 | 1.25 (0.85–1.84) | ||||||||
3 | 1.44 (0.97–2.12) | ||||||||
4 | 1.70 (1.13–2.55) | ||||||||
Kim et al. 2017, Korea [48] | Korea National Health Insurance | 2002–2013, 8.5 years follow-up | 418,057 men and women, age ≥ 20 years: 11,054 cases | Measured | 8 | BMI | < 18.5 | 0.92 (0.83–1.03) | Age, sex, smoking, alcohol, exercise, income |
18.5–22.9 | 1 | ||||||||
23.0–24.9 | 1.01 (0.96–1.06) | ||||||||
≥ 25.0 | 1.05 (1.00–1.10) | ||||||||
Snekvik et al. 2017, Norway [49] | The HUNT Study 2–3 (and HUNT 1 for weight change) | 1984–1986, 1995–1997–2006–2008, ~ 11.1 years follow-up | 33,734 men and women, age ≥ 20 years: 369 cases 33,485/33,485/25,148 participants for analyses of waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, and weight change: 367/367/267 cases | Measured | 8 | BMI, all | 18.5–24.9 25.0–29.9 ≥ 30.0 Per 3.81 units Per 1 unit | 1 1.45 (1.15–1.84) 1.87 (1.38–2.52) 1.22 (1.11–1.34) 1.05 (1.03–1.08) | Age, sex, education, smoking status |
Waist circumference | ≤ 86/≤ 73 cm (m/f) | 1 | |||||||
87–90/74–79 | 1.33 (0.98–1.81) | ||||||||
91–96/80–86 | 1.48 (1.09–2.00) | ||||||||
≥ 97/≥ 87 | 1.95 (1.46–2.61) | ||||||||
Per 11.14 cm | 1.26 (1.15–1.39) | ||||||||
Per 1 cm | 1.02 (1.01–1.03) | ||||||||
Waist-to-hip ratio | ≤ 0.86/≤ 0.75 (m/f) | 1 | |||||||
0.86–0.89/0.75–0.79 | 1.19 (0.88–1.61) | ||||||||
0.89–0.92/0.79–0.82 | 1.13 (0.83–1.54) | ||||||||
≥ 0.92/≥ 0.82 | 1.53 (1.14–2.07) | ||||||||
Per 0.08 unit | 1.18 (1.07–1.31) | ||||||||
Per 0.1 unit | 1.35 (1.12–1.61) | ||||||||
Weight change | − 2.0 kg | 0.66 (0.32–1.33) | |||||||
− 2.0 to + 1.9 kg | 1 | ||||||||
2.0–4.9 | 1.05 (0.69–1.61) | ||||||||
5.0–9.9 | 1.33 (0.90–1.95) | ||||||||
≥ 10.0 | 1.72 (1.15–2.58) | ||||||||
Per 5.96 kg | 1.20 (1.07–1.35) | ||||||||
Per 1 kg | 1.03 (1.01–1.05) | ||||||||
BMI, men | 18.5–24.9 | 1 | |||||||
25.0–29.9 | 1.75 (1.22–2.51) | ||||||||
≥ 30.0 | 2.46 (1.57–3.85) | ||||||||
Per 3.81 units | 1.28 (1.12–1.45) | ||||||||
Per 1 unit | 1.08 (1.04–1.12) | ||||||||
Waist circumference | ≤ 86/≤ 73 cm (m/f) | 1 | |||||||
87–90/74–79 | 1.38 (0.86–2.20) | ||||||||
91–96/80–86 | 1.73 (1.11–2.68) | ||||||||
≥ 97/≥ 87 | 2.43 (1.59–3.70) | ||||||||
Per 11.14 cm | 1.36 (1.19–1.54) | ||||||||
Per 1 cm | 1.04 (1.02–1.05) | ||||||||
Waist-to-hip ratio | ≤ 0.86/≤ 0.75 (m/f) | 1 | |||||||
0.86–0.89/0.75–0.79 | 1.30 (0.84–2.02) | ||||||||
0.89–0.92/0.79–0.82 | 1.28 (0.82–2.01) | ||||||||
≥ 0.92/≥ 0.82 | 1.89 (1.23–2.92) | ||||||||
Per 0.08 unit | 1.31 (1.14–1.51) | ||||||||
Per 0.1 unit | 1.66 (1.27–2.17) | ||||||||
Weight change | − 2.0 kg | 0.77 (0.28–2.08) | |||||||
− 2.0 to + 1.9 kg | 1 | ||||||||
2.0–4.9 | 1.17 (0.63–2.17) | ||||||||
5.0–9.9 | 1.62 (0.92–2.85) | ||||||||
≥ 10.0 | 2.15 (1.18–3.91) | ||||||||
Per 5.96 kg | 1.30 (1.09–1.55) | ||||||||
Per 1 kg | 1.04 (1.01–1.08) | ||||||||
BMI, women | 18.5–24.9 | 1 | |||||||
25.0–29.9 | 1.26 (0.91–1.74) | ||||||||
≥ 30.0 | 1.51 (0.99–2.29) | ||||||||
Per 3.81 units | 1.17 (1.02–1.34) | ||||||||
Per 1 unit | 1.04 (1.00–1.07) | ||||||||
Waist circumference | ≤ 86/≤ 73 cm (m/f) | 1 | |||||||
87–90/74–79 | 1.29 (0.85–1.95) | ||||||||
91–96/80–86 | 1.27 (0.82–1.95) | ||||||||
≥ 97/≥ 87 | 1.57 (1.04–2.37) | ||||||||
Per 11.14 cm | 1.17 (1.01–1.34) | ||||||||
Per 1 cm | 1.01 (1.00–1.03) | ||||||||
Waist-to-hip ratio | ≤ 0.86/≤ 0.75 (m/f) | 1 | |||||||
0.86–0.89/0.75–0.79 | 1.11 (0.73–1.68) | ||||||||
0.89–0.92/0.79–0.82 | 1.01 (0.66–1.55) | ||||||||
≥ 0.92/≥ 0.82 | 1.26 (0.83–1.92) | ||||||||
Per 0.08 unit | 1.08 (0.93–1.25) | ||||||||
Per 0.1 unit | 1.14 (0.88–1.47) | ||||||||
Weight change | − 2.0 kg | 0.57 (0.22–1.53) | |||||||
− 2.0 to + 1.9 kg | 1 | ||||||||
2.0–4.9 | 0.95 (0.53–1.70) | ||||||||
5.0–9.9 | 1.07 (0.63–1.83) | ||||||||
≥ 10.0 | 1.42 (0.82–2.44) | ||||||||
Per 5.96 kg | 1.14 (0.97–1.33) | ||||||||
Per 1 kg | 1.02 (0.99–1.05) |