Introduction
Methods
Population
Statistical analysis
Results
Patient characteristics
Subject characteristics | Patients’ No. of CRC (2010–2016) (N = 203,138) | Univariable analysis | Multivariable analysisa | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LM | Entire cohort | % | OR [95% CI] | P value | OR [95% CI] | P value | |
Age(years) | |||||||
≤ 50 | 1587 | 31,717 | 5.0 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 |
51–60 | 2517 | 46,551 | 5.4 | 1.09 (1.02–1.16) | 0.013 | 1.11 (1.03–1.19) | 0.007 |
61–70 | 2828 | 51,891 | 5.6 | 1.09 (1.03–1.17) | 0.005 | 1.24 (1.16–1.34) | < 0.001 |
71–80 | 2088 | 40,878 | 5.1 | 1.02 (0.96–1.09) | 0.525 | 1.34 (1.24–1.45) | < 0.001 |
81–90 | 1319 | 27,329 | 4.8 | 0.96 (0.89–1.04) | 0.321 | 1.24 (1.14–1.36) | < 0.001 |
≥ 91 | 259 | 4772 | 5.4 | 1.09 (0.95–1.25) | 0.213 | 1.13 (0.96–1.32) | 0.132 |
Sex | |||||||
Female | 4855 | 97,411 | 5.0 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 |
Male | 5743 | 105,727 | 5.4 | 1.10 (1.05–1.14) | < 0.001 | 0.93 (0.84–1.03) | 0.142 |
Race | |||||||
White | 7795 | 155,877 | 5.0 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 |
Black | 1702 | 25,423 | 6.7 | 1.36 (1.29–1.44) | < 0.001 | 1.12 (1.05–1.19) | 0.001 |
Othersb | 1078 | 19,755 | 5.5 | 1.10 (1.03–1.17) | 0.006 | 1.09 (1.01–1.18) | 0.022 |
Unknown | 23 | 2083 | 1.1 | 0.21 (0.14–0.32) | < 0.001 | 0.33 (0.21–0.50) | < 0.001 |
Marital status | |||||||
Unmarriedc | 5136 | 85,861 | 6.0 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 |
Married | 4884 | 104,171 | 4.7 | 0.77 (0.74–0.80) | < 0.001 | 0.91 (0.87–0.95) | < 0.001 |
Unknown | 578 | 13,106 | 4.4 | 0.73 (0.66–0.79) | < 0.001 | 0.93 (0.84–1.03) | 0.139 |
Insurance status | |||||||
Insured | 8087 | 168,577 | 4.8 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 |
Uninsured | 589 | 6818 | 8.6 | 1.48 (1.40–1.56) | < 0.001 | 1.11 (1.05–1.18) | 0.001 |
Any Medic aid | 1922 | 27,743 | 6.9 | 1.88 (1.72–2.05) | < 0.001 | 1.35 (1.22–1.50) | < 0.001 |
Site | |||||||
Right colon | 3107 | 81,903 | 3.8 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 |
Left colon | 3568 | 67,565 | 5.3 | 1.41 (1.35–1.49) | < 0.001 | 1.23 (1.21–1.35) | < 0.001 |
Rectum | 2898 | 47,660 | 6.1 | 1.64 (1.56–1.73) | < 0.001 | 1.96 (1.84–2.08) | < 0.001 |
Unknown | 1025 | 6010 | 17.1 | 5.22 (4.83–5.63) | < 0.001 | 1.32 (1.20–1.45) | < 0.001 |
Histological grade | |||||||
Grade I | 440 | 20,942 | 2.1 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 |
Grade II | 4796 | 119,971 | 4.0 | 1.94 (1.76–2.14) | < 0.001 | 1.35 (1.21–1.50) | < 0.001 |
Grade III | 1377 | 26,680 | 5.2 | 2.54 (2.27–2.83) | < 0.001 | 1.25 (1.10–1.40) | < 0.001 |
Grade IV | 224 | 5430 | 4.1 | 2.01 (1.70–2.36) | < 0.001 | 1.12 (0.93–1.34) | 0.229 |
Unknown | 3761 | 30,115 | 12.5 | 6.65 (6.01–7.35) | < 0.001 | 1.87 (1.67–2.09) | < 0.001 |
Lymphatic metastasis | |||||||
N0 | 3631 | 118,929 | 3.1 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 |
N1 | 3435 | 49,501 | 6.9 | 2.37 (2.26–2.48) | < 0.001 | 1.74 (1.64–1.85) | < 0.001 |
N2 | 1609 | 25,083 | 6.4 | 2.18 (2.05–2.31) | < 0.001 | 1.61 (1.49–1.74) | < 0.001 |
Unknown | 1923 | 9625 | 20.0 | 7.93 (7.47–8.42) | < 0.001 | 1.58 (1.47–1.70) | < 0.001 |
T stage | |||||||
T1 | 1121 | 37,387 | 3.0 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 |
T2 | 175 | 22,697 | 0.8 | 0.25 (0.21–0.30) | < 0.001 | 0.36 (0.30–0.42) | < 0.001 |
T3 | 2627 | 84,747 | 3.1 | 1.04 (0.96–1.11) | 0.343 | 0.74 (0.68–0.80) | < 0.001 |
T4 | 2218 | 30,766 | 7.2 | 2.51 (2.34–2.71) | < 0.001 | 1.16 (1.07–1.27) | 0.001 |
Unknown | 4457 | 27,541 | 16.2 | 6.25 (5.84–6.68) | < 0.001 | 1.80 (1.66–1.94) | < 0.001 |
CEA | |||||||
Negative | 899 | 57,688 | 1.6 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 |
Positive | 6325 | 53,812 | 11.8 | 8.41 (7.84–9.03) | < 0.001 | 2.40 (2.22–2.59) | < 0.001 |
Unknown | 3374 | 91,638 | 3.7 | 2.42 (2.24–2.60) | < 0.001 | 1.39 (1.28–1.51) | < 0.001 |
Liver metastasis | |||||||
No | 2863 | 172,420 | 1.7 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 |
Yes | 7608 | 30,258 | 25.1 | 19.89 (19.02–20.81) | < 0.001 | 9.13 (8.66–9.62) | < 0.001 |
Unknown | 127 | 460 | 27.6 | 22.59 (18.35–27.8) | < 0.001 | 4.95 (3.83–6.40) | < 0.001 |
Bone metastasis | |||||||
No | 9158 | 199,953 | 4.6 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 |
Yes | 1089 | 2454 | 44.4 | 16.62 (15.31–18.05) | < 0.001 | 3.53 (3.21–3.88) | < 0.001 |
Unknown | 351 | 731 | 48.0 | 19.24 (16.62–22.28) | < 0.001 | 2.32 (1.80–2.99) | < 0.001 |
Brain metastasis | |||||||
No | 9899 | 201,765 | 4.9 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 |
Yes | 299 | 566 | 52.8 | 21.71 (18.38–25.63) | < 0.001 | 8.53 (6.94–10.48) | < 0.001 |
Unknown | 400 | 807 | 49.6 | 19.05 (16.57–21.90) | < 0.001 | 2.45 (1.94–3.10) | < 0.001 |
Risk factors for developing lung metastasis
Survival estimation and prognostic factors for lung metastasis
Subject characteristics | No. of CRC patients with LM (N = 8867) | Survival, median (95% CI, month) | Univariable analysis | Multivariable analysisa | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Overall | Deceased (rate, %) | HR [95% CI] | P value | HR [95% CI] | P-value | ||
Age(years) | |||||||
≤ 50 | 1313 | 1007 (76.7) | 18 (16.7–19.3) | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 |
51–60 | 2115 | 1698 (80.3) | 14 (13.0–15.0) | 1.18 (1.09–1.27) | < 0.001 | 1.14 (1.05–1.23) | 0.001 |
61–70 | 2353 | 1937 (82.3) | 11 (10.2–11.9) | 1.32 (1.22–1.42) | < 0.001 | 1.31 (1.21–1.41) | < 0.001 |
71–80 | 1745 | 1549 (88.8) | 6 (5.3–6.8) | 1.76 (1.62–1.90) | < 0.001 | 1.82 (1.68–1.98) | < 0.001 |
81–90 | 1121 | 1062 (94.7) | 2 (1.7–2.3) | 2.69 (2.46–2.93) | < 0.001 | 2.72 (2.48–2.98) | < 0.001 |
≥ 91 | 220 | 216 (98.2) | 1 (0.4–1.6) | 3.89 (3.36–4.51) | < 0.001 | 3.61 (3.09–4.21) | < 0.001 |
Sex | |||||||
Female | 4068 | 3416 (84.0) | 9 (8.3–9.7) | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 | - | - |
Male | 4799 | 4053 (84.5) | 10 (9.4–10.6) | 0.99 (0.95–1.04) | 0.787 | - | - |
Race | |||||||
White | 6525 | 5475 (83.9) | 10 (9.5–10.6) | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 |
Black | 1424 | 1233 (86.6) | 9 (8.0–10.0) | 1.08 (1.01–1.15) | 0.016 | 1.06 (1.00–1.13) | 0.060 |
Othersb | 902 | 750 (83.2) | 10 (8.6–11.4) | 0.98 (0.90–1.05) | 0.542 | 1.02 (0.94–1.10) | 0.690 |
Unknown | 16 | 11 (68.8) | 12 (2.7–21.3) | 0.96 (0.53–1.73) | 0.885 | 1.14 (0.63–2.07) | 0.663 |
Marital status | |||||||
Unmarriedc | 4315 | 3739 (86.7) | 8 (7.4–8.6) | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 |
Married | 4060 | 3320 (81.8) | 13 (12.3–13.7) | 0.79 (0.75–0.82) | < 0.001 | 0.87 (0.83–0.91) | < 0.001 |
Unknown | 492 | 410 (83.3) | 8 (6.0–10.0) | 0.87 (0.78–0.96) | 0.005 | 0.92 (0.83–1.02) | 0.119 |
Insurance status | |||||||
Insured | 6763 | 5665 (83.8) | 10 (9.5–10.5) | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 |
Uninsured | 1598 | 1376 (86.1) | 9 (8.1–9.9) | 1.10 (1.00–1.21) | 0.058 | 1.24 (1.16–1.32) | < 0.001 |
Any Medic aid | 506 | 428 (84.6) | 9 (7.1–10.9) | 1.11 (1.05–1.18) | 0.001 | 1.35 (1.22–1.49) | < 0.001 |
Site | |||||||
Right colon | 2617 | 2309 (88.2) | 7 (6.3–7.7) | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 |
Left colon | 2986 | 2435 (81.6) | 12 (11.1–12.9) | 0.76 (0.72–0.81) | < 0.001 | 0.82 (0.77–0.87) | < 0.001 |
Rectum | 2399 | 1922 (80.1) | 14 (13.1–15.0) | 0.69 (0.64–0.73) | < 0.001 | 0.68 (0.64–0.73) | < 0.001 |
Unknown | 865 | 803 (92.8) | 2 (1.5–2.5) | 1.51 (1.39–1.63) | < 0.001 | 1.11 (1.02–1.21) | 0.018 |
Histological grade | |||||||
Grade I | 356 | 280 (78.7) | 14 (11.1–16.9) | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 |
Grade II | 4050 | 3202 (79.1) | 15 (14.2–15.8) | 0.99 (0.87–1.11) | 0.810 | 1.08 (0.95–1.22) | 0.244 |
Grade III | 1167 | 1031 (88.4) | 7 (6.1–7.9) | 1.49 (1.31–1.71) | < 0.001 | 1.58 (1.38–1.81) | < 0.001 |
Grade IV | 195 | 166 (85.1) | 8 (5.6–10.4) | 1.34 (1.11–1.63) | 0.003 | 1.51 (1.24–1.83) | < 0.001 |
Unknown | 3099 | 2790 (90.0) | 5 (4.5–5.5) | 1.78 (1.57–2.01) | < 0.001 | 1.32 (1.16–1.49) | < 0.001 |
Lymphatic metastasis | |||||||
N0 | 3021 | 2542 (84.1) | 8 (7.2–8.8) | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 |
N1 | 2938 | 2388 (81.3) | 12 (11.1–12.9) | 0.85 (0.81–0.90) | < 0.001 | 1.02 (0.96–1.08) | 0.485 |
N2 | 1315 | 1078 (82.0) | 14 (12.7–15.3) | 0.79 (0.74–0.85) | < 0.001 | 1.17 (1.07–1.27) | < 0.001 |
Unknown | 1593 | 1461 (91.7) | 8 (7.2–8.8) | 1.37 (1.28–1.46) | < 0.001 | 1.07 (1.00–1.14) | 0.068 |
T stage | |||||||
T1 | 1052 | 920 (87.5) | 8 (6.7–9.3) | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 |
T2 | 151 | 114 (75.5) | 19 (14.2–23.8) | 0.48 (0.37–0.63) | < 0.001 | 0.78 (0.60–1.02) | 0.071 |
T3 | 2285 | 1717 (75.1) | 19 (17.9–20.1) | 0.75 (0.69–0.82) | < 0.001 | 0.93 (0.85–1.02) | 0.118 |
T4 | 1875 | 1572 (83.8) | 11 (10.1–11.9) | 0.83 (0.75–0.92) | < 0.001 | 1.07 (0.96–1.18) | 0.223 |
Unknown | 3504 | 3146 (89.8) | 5 (4.5–5.5) | 1.23 (1.13–1.35) | < 0.001 | 1.01 (0.92–1.11) | 0.792 |
CEA | |||||||
Negative | 745 | 543 (72.9) | 20 (17.7–22.3) | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 |
Positive | 5282 | 4477 (84.8) | 10 (9.5–10.6) | 1.62 (1.48–1.77) | < 0.001 | 1.27 (1.16–1.39) | < 0.001 |
Unknown | 2840 | 2449 (86.2) | 8 (7.2–8.8) | 1.73 (1.57–1.89) | < 0.001 | 1.34 (1.21–1.47) | < 0.001 |
Liver metastasis | |||||||
No | 2406 | 1759 (73.1) | 17 (15.8–18.2) | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 |
Yes | 6350 | 5612 (88.4) | 8 (7.5–8.5) | 1.75 (1.66–1.85) | < 0.001 | 1.64 (1.55–1.73) | < 0.001 |
Unknown | 111 | 98 (88.3) | 8 (3.5–12.5) | 1.52 (1.24–1.86) | < 0.001 | 1.21 (0.97–1.50) | 0.098 |
Bone metastasis | |||||||
No | 7663 | 6357 (83.0) | 11 (10.5–11.5) | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 |
Yes | 899 | 829 (92.2) | 5 (4.2–5.8) | 1.55 (1.45–1.67) | < 0.001 | 1.38 (1.28–1.48) | < 0.001 |
Unknown | 305 | 283 (92.8) | 4 (2.6–5.4) | 1.47 (1.30–1.65) | < 0.001 | 1.32 (1.09–1.60) | 0.004 |
Brain metastasis | |||||||
No | 8267 | 6921 (83.7) | 10 (9.5–10.5) | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 |
Yes | 248 | 227 (91.5) | 3 (2.0–4.0) | 1.68 (1.47–1.92) | < 0.001 | 1.51 (1.32–1.73) | < 0.001 |
Unknown | 352 | 321 (91.2) | 5 (3.8–6.3) | 1.36 (1.22–1.52) | < 0.001 | 0.86 (0.72–1.03) | 0.103 |
Surg (pri) | |||||||
No | 5956 | 5286 (88.8) | 7 (6.6–7.4) | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 | 1 (Reference) | 1.00 |
Yes | 2878 | 2157 (75.0) | 19 (17.9–20.1) | 0.51 (0.49–0.54) | < 0.001 | 0.56 (0.52–0.60) | < 0.001 |
Unknown | 33 | 26 (78.8) | 12 (3.5–20.5) | 0.59 (0.40–0.87) | 0.007 | 0.45 (0.31–0.67) | < 0.001 |