Background
Methods
Study area
Study design and data collection
Measurement
HIV outcome
Migration intensity
Statistical analysis
Results
Baseline demographic characteristics
n | % | ||
---|---|---|---|
Age category: | 15–19 | 2555 | 19.19 |
20–24 | 2828 | 21.24 | |
25–29 | 1290 | 9.69 | |
30–34 | 667 | 5.01 | |
35–39 | 496 | 3.73 | |
40+ | 5479 | 41.15 | |
Marital status: | Single | 9040 | 69.38 |
Divorced/Separated | 2031 | 15.59 | |
Married - Monogamous | 1745 | 13.39 | |
Married - Polygamous | 214 | 1.64 | |
Sexual debut | After the age of 17 | 2782 | 34.97 |
After 17 | 5173 | 63.03 | |
Household income: | Bottom 20% | 2535 | 20.25 |
Middle 60% | 7633 | 60.96 | |
Top 20% | 2353 | 18.79 | |
Ever pregnant | Yes | 10,486 | 83.41 |
No | 2086 | 16.59 | |
Contraceptive use | Yes | 2830 | 81.02 |
No | 663 | 18.98 | |
Number of sex partners | Less than 5 partners | 9934 | 98.38 |
≥5 | 164 | 1.62 | |
Area: | Peri-urban | 454 | 3.59 |
Urban | 3591 | 28.38 | |
Rural | 8610 | 68.04 | |
Number of external migration movements per year: | None | 12,357 | 93.15 |
One movement per year | 777 | 5.86 | |
Two or more movements per year | 132 | 1.00 |
Predictors of external migration
Category | OR | aOR | Robust SE | 95% CI | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Age category: [40+] | 15–19 | 3.85*** | 2.36*** | 0.48 | 1.58 | 3.51 |
20–24 | 9.84*** | 4.46*** | 0.82 | 3.11 | 6.39 | |
25–29 | 7.91*** | 2.96*** | 0.59 | 1.99 | 4.38 | |
30–34 | 4.25*** | 1.57 | 0.37 | 0.99 | 2.49 | |
35–39 | 3.13*** | 1.44 | 0.35 | 0.90 | 2.32 | |
Marital status: [Single] | Divorced/Separated | 0.12*** | 0.24 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 1.00 |
Married - Monogamous | 0.15*** | 0.43*** | 0.09 | 0.28 | 0.65 | |
Married - Polygamous | 0.07*** | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 1.12 | |
Sexual debut age: [Before age of 17] | After 17 | 1.01 | 1.22*** | 0.11 | 1.02 | 1.45 |
Ever pregnant: [Yes] | No | 0.92 | 1.50*** | 0.25 | 1.08 | 2.06 |
Contraception use: [Yes] | No | 2.26*** | 1.19 | 0.12 | 0.98 | 1.45 |
Number of sexual partners: [Less than 5 partners] | ≥5 | 1.47* | 0.62 | 0.19 | 0.34 | 1.13 |
Household income: [Middle 60%] | Bottom 20% | 0.95 | 1.15 | 0.12 | 0.94 | 1.42 |
Top 20% | 1.03 | 1.28*** | 0.14 | 1.03 | 1.58 | |
Area: [Rural] | Peri-urban | 0.88*** | 0.92 | 0.09 | 0.76 | 1.12 |
Urban | 1.29** | 1.72 | 0.35 | 1.15 | 2.55 | |
ART scale-up period: [Year 2010 and on] | Before 2010 | 1.63*** | 1.19 | 0.11 | 0.99 | 1.43 |
Incidence rates
Events | Person years | IR (per 100 person years) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Age category: | 15–19 | 529 | 11,085 | 4.77 |
20–24 | 734 | 9876 | 7.43 | |
25–29 | 321 | 4719 | 6.80 | |
30–34 | 128 | 3088 | 4.14 | |
35–39 | 67 | 3430 | 1.95 | |
40+ | 219 | 31,018 | 0.71 | |
Marital status: | Single | 1733 | 38,457 | 4.51 |
Divorced/Separated | 36 | 10,624 | 0.34 | |
Married - Monogamous | 108 | 12,095 | 0.89 | |
Married - Polygamous | 10 | 1640 | 0.61 | |
Sexual debut age: | Before the age of 17 | 590 | 11,139 | 5.30 |
Ages 17 and after | 750 | 22,164 | 3.38 | |
Ever pregnant: | No | 143 | 4368 | 3.27 |
Yes | 1332 | 44,794 | 2.97 | |
Contraception use: | No | 209 | 4941 | 4.23 |
Yes | 478 | 8114 | 5.89 | |
Number of sexual partners: | Less than 5 partners | 1737 | 51,428 | 3.38 |
≥5 | 57 | 850 | 6.70 | |
Household income: | Bottom 20% | 329 | 10,664 | 3.09 |
Middle 60% | 1166 | 35,543 | 3.28 | |
Top 20% | 272 | 10,243 | 2.66 | |
Area: | Peri-urban | 624 | 16,625 | 3.75 |
Urban | 54 | 1738 | 3.11 | |
Rural | 1213 | 42,835 | 2.83 | |
Number of external migration movements per year: | None | 1780 | 59,943 | 2.97 |
One movement per year | 168 | 2677 | 6.27 | |
Two or more movements per year | 48 | 561 | 8.56 | |
ART scale-up period: | Before 2010 | 953 | 33,638 | 3.53 |
Year 2010 and on | 1045 | 29,579 | 2.83 |
Cox proportional hazard results
Category | HR | aHR | SE | 95% CI | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Age category: [40+] | 15–19 | 7.39*** | 4.98*** | 0.63 | 3.14 | 7.89 |
20–24 | 10.86*** | 5.61*** | 0.85 | 3.63 | 8.68 | |
25–29 | 9.46*** | 4.15*** | 0.83 | 2.63 | 6.56 | |
30–34 | 5.83*** | 2.51*** | 0.65 | 1.51 | 4.15 | |
35–39 | 2.80*** | 1.46 | 0.39 | 0.83 | 2.56 | |
Marital status: [Single] | Divorced/Separated | 0.07*** | 0.97 | 0.51 | 0.35 | 2.74 |
Married - Monogamous | 0.19*** | 0.48*** | 0.11 | 0.31 | 0.77 | |
Married - Polygamous | 0.13*** | 0.27 | 0.28 | 0.04 | 1.97 | |
Sexual debut age: [Before age of 17] | After 17 | 0.64*** | 0.83*** | 0.07 | 0.69 | 0.98 |
Ever pregnant: [Yes] | No | 1.00 | 1.20 | 0.24 | 0.81 | 1.77 |
Contraception use: [Yes] | No | 0.72*** | 1.00 | 0.11 | 0.81 | 1.24 |
Number of sexual partners: [Less than 5 partners] | ≥5 | 1.99*** | 0.75 | 0.21 | 0.44 | 1.29 |
Household income: [Middle 60%] | Bottom 20% | 0.93 | 1.07 | 0.12 | 0.86 | 1.34 |
Top 20% | 0.80*** | 0.91 | 0.11 | 0.71 | 1.16 | |
Area: [Rural] | Peri-urban | 1.38*** | 1.32*** | 0.12 | 1.10 | 1.58 |
Urban | 1.22 | 0.84 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 1.64 | |
Number of external migration movements per year: [None] | One movement per year | 2.10*** | 0.90 | 0.23 | 0.54 | 1.49 |
Two or more years movement per year | 2.88*** | 2.94*** | 0.94 | 1.56 | 5.53 | |
ART scale-up period: [Before 2010] | Year 2010 and on | 0.81*** | 1.04 | 0.12 | 0.82 | 1.32 |
Interaction terms of annual movement and ART-scale-up period [Before 2010] | Once per-year/2010 and on | 1.21 | 0.50 | 0.53 | 2.72 | |
Twice or more per-year/2010 and on | 0.18*** | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.83 |