Background
Methods
Study data
Statistical analysis
Step 1: latent growth curve modeling
Step 2: Joinpoint regression
Step 3: longitudinal multilevel modeling
Results
Temporal trends and latent growth curve analysis of LC incidence, mortality, and [1-MIR]
Super- region | Metric | Gender | Year | LGCM estimates` | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1990 | 1996 | 2002 | 2008 | 2014 | 2019 | Intercept | Slope | |||
Incidence | ||||||||||
Female | 2.03(1.95,2.11) | 1.99(1.92,2.07) | 1.96(1.88,2.03) | 2.37(2.27,2.47) | 2.43(2.33,2.53) | 2.38(2.16,2.64) | 3.58*
| 0.08**
| ||
Male | 4.13(3.99,4.6) | 4.44(4.29,4.58) | 4.46(4.34,4.57) | 5.31(5.15,5.45) | 5.58(5.39,5.77) | 5.44(4.79,6.07) | 8.31*
| 0.11**
| ||
Both | 2.84(2.74,2.92) | 2.97(2.87,3.06) | 2.96(2.88,3.04) | 3.57(3.45,3.68) | 3.73(3.60,3.85) | 3.65(3.33,3.98) | 5.62*
| 0.09**
| ||
CEEECA | Mortality | |||||||||
Female | 2.15(2.06,2.24) | 2.07(1.99,2.13) | 2.02(1.94,2.10) | 2.49(2.38,2.59) | 2.51(2.38,2.60) | 2.45(2.21,2.69) | 3.68***
| 0.11*
| ||
Male | 4.33(4.17,4.46) | 4.55(4.42,4.68) | 4.56(4.43,4.68) | 5.53(5.33,5.71) | 5.62(5.42,5.80) | 5.55(4.90,6.24) | 8.62*
| 0.15*
| ||
Both | 2.98(2.86,3.06) | 3.03(2.94,3.11) | 3.02(2.93,3.10) | 3.71(3.57,3.82) | 3.77(3.63,3.87) | 3.72(3.39,4.07) | 5.76*
| 0.12*
| ||
1-MIR | ||||||||||
Female | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | – | – | ||
Male | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.004(0,0.008) | 0.002(0,0.003) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.006(0.005,0.007) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.005*
| 0.001**
| ||
Both | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | – | – | ||
Incidence | ||||||||||
Female | 2.50(2.37,2.59) | 3.25(3.04,3.38) | 3.94(3.64,4.10) | 3.99(3.62,4.18) | 3.87(3.47,4.09) | 3.82(3.35,4.25) | 2.25***
| −0.08***
| ||
Male | 7.79(7.59,7.95) | 9.96(9.67,10.20) | 11.74(11.39,11.97) | 11.76(11.29,12.09) | 11.32(10.78,11.66) | 11.20(10.05,12.50) | 5.63***
| −0.15***
| ||
Both | 4.88(4.74,4.99) | 6.29(6.05,6.45) | 7.51(7.20,7.68) | 7.58(7.17,7.81) | 7.33(6.90,7.58) | 7.27(6.55,8.01) | 3.78***
| −0.10***
| ||
HI | Mortality | |||||||||
Female | 2.32(2.18,2.40) | 2.88(2.68,2.98) | 3.38(3.10,3.52) | 3.30(2.96,3.48) | 3.19(2.82,3.37) | 3.14(2.78,3.35) | 2.21***
| −0.05***
| ||
Male | 6.94(6.76,7.10) | 8.60(8.33,8.78) | 9.68(9.36,9.90) | 9.17(8.76,9.46) | 8.68(8.25,8.95) | 8.55(7.94,8.97) | 5.37***
| −0.09***
| ||
Both | 4.38(4.23,4.48) | 5.44(5.20,5.56) | 6.24(5.94,6.40) | 5.98(5.61,6.18) | 5.71(5.31,5.91) | 5.65(5.23,5.95) | 3.63***
| −0.08***
| ||
1-MIR | ||||||||||
Female | 0.04(0.03,0.06) | 0.09(0.08,0.10) | 0.10(0.12,0.11) | 0.13(0.11,0.14) | 0.13(0.14,0.15) | 0.12(0.11,0.16) | 0.12***
| 0.002***
| ||
Male | 0.11(0.10,0.12) | 0.13(0.11,0.14) | 0.17(0.16,0.18) | 0.22(0.21,0.23) | 0.22(0.20,0.23) | 0.22(0.19,0.26) | 0.16***
| 0.003***
| ||
Both | 0.09(0.08,0.10) | 0.12(0.11,0.13) | 0.15(0.15,0.17) | 0.19(0.18,0.20) | 0.19(0.17,0.20) | 0.19(0.18,0.22) | 0.15***
| 0.002***
| ||
Incidence | ||||||||||
Female | 3.00(2.84,3.17) | 2.65(2.51,2.76) | 2.13(2.02,2.22) | 2.18(2.06,2.27) | 2.27(2.12,2.38) | 2.26(2.03,2.51) | 2.11***
| 0.01*
| ||
Male | 3.61(3.41,3.81) | 3.32(3.14,3.49) | 2.95(2.76,3.11) | 3.28(3.09,3.45) | 3.66(3.47,3.82) | 3.72(3.37,4.14) | 3.40***
| 0.03*
| ||
Both | 3.30(3.14,3.43) | 2.97(2.83,3.07) | 2.52(2.38,2.63) | 2.69(2.54,2.82) | 2.91(2.75,3.03) | 2.93(2.66,3.27) | 2.46***
| 0.02*
| ||
LAC | Mortality | |||||||||
Female | 3.23(3.03,3.40) | 2.81(2.65,2.94) | 2.29(2.14,2.39) | 2.30(2.15,2.42) | 2.43(2.27,2.54) | 2.40(2.16,2.67) | 2.41***
| 0.07**
| ||
Male | 3.84(3.61,4.05) | 3.50(3.30,3.69) | 3.16(2.96,3.35) | 3.45(3.22,3.64) | 3.88(3.66,4.06) | 3.95(3.57,4.38) | 3.28***
| 0.11*
| ||
Both | 3.52(3.33,3.67) | 3.14(2.97,3.27) | 2.70(2.53,2.82) | 2.83(2.65,2.97) | 3.09(2.92,3.22) | 3.11(2.82,3.44) | 2.86***
| 0.09*
| ||
1-MIR | ||||||||||
Female | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | – | – | ||
Male | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | – | – | ||
Both | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | – | – | ||
Incidence | ||||||||||
Female | 3.92(3.12,4.81) | 3.68(3.19,4.20) | 3.42(3.13,3.73) | 3.87(3.55,4.23) | 4.17(3.76,4.75) | 4.10(3.44,4.97) | 3.93***
| 0.01**
| ||
Male | 8.18(7.08,9.30) | 7.78(7.05,8.58) | 7.79(7.27,8.33) | 8.68(8.03,9.42) | 8.93(7.84,10.22) | 8.40(6.60,10.63) | 6.46***
| 0.03**
| ||
Both | 6.08(5.28,6.81) | 5.76(5.24,6.25) | 5.64(5.29,5.99) | 6.31(5.91,6.81) | 6.59(5.93,7.42) | 6.29(5.13,7.71) | 5.30***
| 0.02**
| ||
NAME | Mortality | |||||||||
Female | 4.13(3.28,5.12) | 3.83(3.27,4.43) | 3.61(3.28,3.93) | 3.87(3.51,4.24) | 3.95(3.55,4.45) | 3.69(3.10,4.51) | 4.30***
| −0.001**
| ||
Male | 8.62(7.48,9.79) | 8.18(7.39,9.08) | 8.41(7.76,9.07) | 8.67(8.00,9.38) | 9.16(8.12,10.28) | 8.63(6.81,10.83) | 7.06***
| −0.003**
| ||
Both | 6.39(5.55,7.19) | 6.03(5.47,6.55) | 6.04(5.62,6.42) | 6.31(5.90,6.74) | 6.59(5.99,7.31) | 6.20(5.06,7.62) | 5.79***
| −0.003**
| ||
1-MIR | ||||||||||
Female | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.04(0.05,0.04) | 0.09(0.09,0.10) | 0.13(0.13,0.12) | −0.007***
| 0.001**
| ||
Male | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.02(0.02,0.03) | 0.00(0.00,0.02) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.004***
| 0.007**
| ||
Both | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.03(0.03,0.04) | 0.03(0.02,0.04) | 0.04(0.04,0.04) | −0.005*
| 0.003*
| ||
Incidence | ||||||||||
Female | 1.96(1.54,2.45) | 2.01(1.58,2.44) | 2.05(1.65,2.43) | 2.00(1.63,2.34) | 1.98(1.67,2.29) | 1.95(1.54,2.47) | – | – | ||
Male | 3.29(2.64,3.91) | 3.38(2.75,3.88) | 3.52(2.96,3.91) | 3.53(3.04,3.87) | 3.45(3.13,3.76) | 3.38(2.86,3.99) | – | – | ||
Both | 2.66(2.20,3.08) | 2.72(2.25,3.09) | 2.79(2.37,3.11) | 2.77(2.37,3.04) | 2.70(2.42,2.94) | 2.66(2.30,3.05) | – | – | ||
SAa
| Mortality | |||||||||
Female | 2.13(1.66,2.70) | 2.18(1.74,2.67) | 2.25(1.80,2.66) | 2.22(1.82,2.59) | 2.08(1.74,2.44) | 2.09(1.61,2.67) | – | – | ||
Male | 3.46(2.78,4.07) | 3.61(2.93,4.13) | 3.74(3.13,4.19) | 3.78(3.27,4.18) | 3.59(3.28,3.92) | 3.56(2.98,4.18) | – | – | ||
Both | 2.82(2.33,3.27) | 2.92(2.44,3.32) | 3.01(2.54,3.35) | 3.00(2.59,3.30) | 2.82(2.56,3.09) | 2.81(2.43,3.24) | – | – | ||
1-MIR | ||||||||||
Female | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | – | – | ||
Male | 0.00(0.00,0.01) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | – | – | ||
Both | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | – | – | ||
Incidence | ||||||||||
Female | 12.17(10.133,14.70) | 12.18(10.91,13.77) | 8.39(7.78,9.18) | 5.17(4.79,5.58) | 4.75(4.30,5.20) | 4.75(3.97,5.61) | 6.11***
| −0.05***
| ||
Male | 29.69(24.58,35.49) | 33.06(30.15,36.51) | 23.46(21.73,25.32) | 13.61(12.66,14.74) | 13.85(12.57,15.34) | 14.66(12.12,17.59) | 12.63***
| −0.10*
| ||
Both | 20.85(17.91,24.30) | 22.50(20.94,24.41) | 15.77(14.85,16.83) | 9.27(8.71,9.98) | 9.14(8.44,9.89) | 9.52(8.19,11.01) | 9.35***
| −0.09*
| ||
SAEAO | Mortality | |||||||||
Female | 12.70(10.53,15.36) | 12.69(11.24,14.47) | 8.10(7.25,9.15) | 5.36(4.92,5.82) | 4.73(4.27,5.22) | 4.67(3.93,5.52) | 6.38***
| −0.07***
| ||
Male | 29.87(24.72,35.64) | 33.42(30.05,37.20) | 21.42(19.21,23.77) | 13.61(12.49,14.79) | 12.89(11.35,14.40) | 13.40(11.17,15.84) | 13.05***
| −0.05***
| ||
Both | 21.13(18.37,24.44) | 22.84(20.90,24.88) | 14.56(13.37,15.89) | 9.31(8.67,9.97) | 8.61(7.84,9.43) | 8.82(7.65,10.09) | 9.60***
| −0.05*
| ||
1-MIR | ||||||||||
Female | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.06(0.04,0.08) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.02(0.01,0.03) | 0.03(0.02,0.04) | 0.006 | – | ||
Male | 0.03(0.01,0.05) | 0.02(0.01,0.04) | 0.15(0.12,0.18) | 0.04(0.03,0.06) | 0.13(0.10,0.15) | 0.11(0.09,0.12) | 0.01 | – | ||
Both | 0.02(0.01,0.04) | 0.03(0.01,0.05) | 0.11(0.08,0.13) | 0.03(0.02,0.05) | 0.10(0.08,0.12) | 0.09(0.08,0.10) | 0.01 | – | ||
Incidence | ||||||||||
Female | 3.31(2.83,3.95) | 3.40(2.94,3.93) | 3.37(2.94,3.84) | 3.17(2.78,3.54) | 3.06(2.69,3.43) | 2.90(2.52,3.31) | 3.73*
| −0.002*
| ||
Male | 5.61(4.57,7.59) | 6.68(5.99,7.60) | 6.88(6.19,7.66) | 6.34(5.73,7.00) | 6.05(5.47,6.67) | 5.75(5.09,6.46) | 8.14***
| −0.03*
| ||
Both | 4.43(3.77,5.54) | 4.99(4.49,5.52) | 5.05(4.57,5.59) | 4.67(4.24,5.11) | 4.45(4.05,4.89) | 4.22(3.77,4.71) | 5.90***
| −0.01*
| ||
SSA | Mortality | |||||||||
Female | 3.54(3.05,4.22) | 3.63(3.16,4.17) | 3.55(3.07,4.05) | 3.37(2.95,3.76) | 3.30(2.89,3.70) | 3.13(2.72,3.59) | 3.85***
| −0.02***
| ||
Male | 6.01(4.91,8.14) | 7.29(6.55,8.28) | 7.41(6.58,8.32) | 6.80(6.08,7.54) | 6.54(5.88,7.20) | 6.19(5.46,6.91) | 10.56***
| −0.05*
| ||
Both | 4.73(4.01,5.93) | 5.38(4.83,5.96) | 5.38(4.83,5.99) | 4.98(4.49,5.48) | 4.80(4.35,5.26) | 4.53(4.03,5.04) | 5.95***
| −0.03*
| ||
1-MIR | ||||||||||
Female | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | – | – | ||
Male | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | – | – | ||
Both | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | – | – | ||
Incidence | ||||||||||
Female | 5.22(4.62,5.96) | 5.55(5.14,6.04) | 4.69(4.40,4.95) | 3.80(3.56,3.98) | 3.66(3.40,3.87) | 3.63(3.23,4.05) | 3.99***
| −0. 03***
| ||
Male | 13.07(11.42,14.87) | 15.02(14.06,16.16) | 12.63(12.02,13.26) | 9.60(9.18,10.06) | 9.59(9.07,10.11) | 9.71(8.69,10.84) | 7.91***
| −0. 08*
| ||
Both | 8.98(8.10,9.97) | 10.09(9.56,10.70) | 8.47(8.10,8.84) | 6.55(6.25,6.82) | 6.47(6.11,6.77) | 6.51(5.95,7.16) | 5.83***
| −0. 07*
| ||
Global | Mortality | |||||||||
Female | 5.33(4.67,6.09) | 5.59(5.15,6.11) | 4.47(4.15,4.80) | 3.72(3.44,3.91) | 3.51(3.22,3.74) | 3.46(3.08,3.83) | 4.17***
| −0. 02***
| ||
Male | 12.90(11.30,14.67) | 14.76(13.65,15.99) | 11.48(10.70,12.29) | 9.00(8.55,9.45) | 8.66(8.10,9.22) | 8.73(7.88,9.60) | 8.14***
| −0. 07*
| ||
Both | 8.93(8.09,9.90) | 9.95(9.32,10.60) | 7.78(7.35,8.20) | 6.20(5.87,6.46) | 5.93(5.59,6.24) | 5.95(5.44,6.44) | 6.03***
| −0. 06*
| ||
1-MIR | ||||||||||
Female | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.01(0.00,0.03) | 0.07(0.05,0.09) | 0.04(0.03,0.06) | 0.05(0.05,0.03) | 0.04(0.02,0.05) | 0.006 | 0.01*
| ||
Male | 0.04(0.02,0.05) | 0.05(0.04,0.07) | 0.11(0.09,0.13) | 0.09(0.08,0.11) | 0.11(0.10,0.13) | 0.11(0.10,0.13) | 0.01 | 0.01*
| ||
Both | 0.02(0.01,0.03) | 0.04(0.03,0.07) | 0.09(0.08,0.11) | 0.07(0.06,0.09) | 0.09(0.06,0.10) | 0.09(0.07,0.11) | 0.01 | 0.01*
|
Measure | Trend | Both | Male | Female | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | APC (95%CI) | Year | APC (95%CI) | Year | APC (95%CI) | ||
Incidence | |||||||
Trend 1 | 1990–1994 | 2.70*(2.30,3.10) | 1990–1994 | 3.20*(2.80,3.60) | 1990–1995 | 1.30*(1.20,1.50) | |
Trend 2 | 1994–1998 | −0.10(−0.70,0.50) | 1994–1998 | 0.10(−0.60,0.70) | 1995–2000 | −1.30*(−1.50,-1) | |
Trend 3 | 1998–2001 | −2.60*(−3.80,-1.40) | 1998–2001 | −2.50*(−3.80,-1.30) | 2000–2005 | −6.0*(−6.20,-5.70) | |
Trend 4 | 2001–2004 | −8.90*(−10,-7.70) | 2001–2004 | −9.40*(−10.60,-8.30) | 2005–2015 | − 0.60*(− 0.70,-0.50) | |
Trend 5 | 2004–2007 | −2.40*(−3.60,-1.20) | 2004–2007 | −2.60*(−3.80,-1.30) | 2015–2019 | −0.10(− 0.40,0.10) | |
Trend 6 | 2007–2019 | 0(−0.10,0) | 2007–2019 | 0.10*(0,0.20) | |||
AAPC | 1990–2019 | −1.10*(−1.40,-0.90) | 1990–2019 | − 1.10*(− 1.30,-0.80) | 1990–2019 | − 1.30*(− 1.40,-1.20) | |
Mortality | |||||||
Trend 1 | 1990–1996 | 1.90*(1.70,2.20) | 1990–1996 | 2.40*(2.10,2.70) | 1990–1996 | 0.90*(0.80,1.10) | |
Trend 2 | 1996–2000 | −1.70*(− 2.30,-1.10) | 1996–2000 | − 1.50*(− 2.30,-0.80) | 1996–2000 | − 2.0*(− 2.40,-1.60) | |
Trend 3 | 2000–2004 | −8.90*(− 9.50,-8.30) | 2000–2004 | − 9.40*(− 10.10,-8.80) | 2000–2004 | −7.20*(−7.60,-6.80) | |
Trend 4 | 2004–2012 | − 1.20*(− 1.30,-1) | 2004–2011 | − 1.30*(− 1.60,− 1.10) | 2004–2012 | -1.10*(− 1.30,-1) | |
Trend 5 | 2012–2019 | 0.20*(0,0.30) | 2011–2019 | 0.20*(0,0.40) | 2012–2019 | − 0.30*(− 0.40,-0.20) | |
AAPC | 1990–2019 | − 1.40*(− 1.50,− 1.30) | 1990–2019 | -1.30*(− 1.50,-1.20) | 1990–2019 | −1.50*(− 1.60,-1.40) | |
1-MIR | |||||||
Trend 1 | 1990–1992 | 34.30*(10.80,62.70) | 1990–1992 | 22.90*(3.60,45.70) | – | – | |
Trend 2 | 1992–1999 | −7.50*(− 10.40,-4.40) | 1992–1999 | − 7.0*(− 9.60,-4.30) | – | – | |
Trend 3 | 1999–2002 | 65.50*(36.50,100.50) | 1999–2002 | 54.80*(30.60,83.60) | – | – | |
Trend 4 | 2002–2005 | −16.60(− 31.10,1.10) | 2002–2005 | −13.90(− 27.40,2.10) | – | – | |
Trend 5 | 2005–2012 | 5.70*(2.30,9.20) | 2005–2012 | 5.30*(2.30,8.30) | – | – | |
Trend 6 | 2012–2019 | −0.40(− 2.90,2.20) | 2012–2019 | − 0.10(− 2.40,2.20) | – | – | |
AAPC | 1990–2019 | 4.90*(1.70,8.10) | 1990–2019 | 3.90*(1.20,6.80) | – | – |
Super- region | Metric | Age group | Year | LGCM estimate | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1990 | 1996 | 2002 | 2008 | 2014 | 2019 | Intercept | Slope | |||
Incidence | ||||||||||
0–14 | 0.28(0.22,0.38) | 0.28(0.22,0.39) | 0.24(0.18,0.36) | 0.22(0.14,0.36) | 0.22(0.13,0.38) | 0.23(0.13,0.41) | 0.22*
| −0.002*
| ||
15–49 | 0.57(0.54,0.60) | 0.74(0.70,0.78) | 0.78(0.76,0.81) | 1.00(0.96,1.04) | 1.07(1.02,1.12) | 1.09(0.96,1.23) | 0.89*
| 0.03*
| ||
50–69 | 8.55(8.31,8.81) | 9.88(9.58,10.21) | 9.51(9.29,9.72) | 10.75(10.44,11.05) | 11.19(10.87,11.55) | 11.53(10.41,12.70) | 20.80*
| 0.07*
| ||
> 70 | 18.78(17.82,19.39) | 18.24(17.44,18.79) | 18.05(17.28,18.46) | 22.12(21.12,22.76) | 23.73(22.48,24.52) | 23.14(21.06,25.14) | 32.38*
| 0.90*
| ||
CEEECA | Mortality | |||||||||
0–14 | 0.20(0.17,0.22) | 0.19(0.17,0.21) | 0.16(0.14,0.20) | 0.15(0.11,0.21) | 0.15(0.11,0.22) | 0.14(0.09,0.22) | 0.15*
| −0.002*
| ||
15–49 | 0.51(0.49,0.54) | 0.65(0.62,0.68) | 0.68(0.65,0.71) | 0.90(0.86,0.95) | 0.93(0.88,0.98) | 0.96(0.85,1.09) | 0.82***
| 0.02*
| ||
50–69 | 8.35(8.12,8.60) | 9.53(9.28,9.81) | 9.12(8.89,9.38) | 10.51(10.18,10.83) | 10.62(10.31,10.98) | 11.09(10.00,12.26) | 20.53*
| 0.04*
| ||
> 70 | 22.28(21.10,23.01) | 21.11(20.15,21.72) | 20.72(19.78,21.30) | 25.82(24.57,26.59) | 27.28(25.70,28.23) | 26.95(24.34,29.39) | 38.21*
| 1.06*
| ||
1-MIR | ||||||||||
0–14 | 0.27(0.21,0.41) | 0.33(0.25,0.45) | 0.35(0.24,0.44) | 0.32(0.21,0.41) | 0.33(0.18,0.42) | 0.38(0.26,0.47) | 0.30***
| 0.002*
| ||
15–49 | 0.11(0.11,0.11) | 0.12(0.11,0.13) | 0.13(0.13,0.12) | 0.10(0.11,0.09) | 0.13(0.13,0.13) | 0.12(0.12,0.12) | 0.10*
| 0.002*
| ||
50–69 | 0.02(0.02,0.02) | 0.04(0.03,0.04) | 0.04(0.04,0.04) | 0.02(0.02,0.02) | 0.05(0.05,0.05) | 0.04(0.04,0.03) | 0.02*
| 0.001*
| ||
> 70 | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | – | – | ||
Incidence | ||||||||||
0–14 | 0.17(0.14,0.21) | 0.18(0.15,0.22) | 0.19(0.16,0.23) | 0.20(0.17,0.25) | 0.20(0.17,0.25) | 0.20(0.16,0.26) | 0.16***
| 0.001***
| ||
15–49 | 1.04(0.99,1.10) | 1.31(1.28,1.35) | 1.75(1.71,1.81) | 1.78(1.72,1.84) | 1.57(1.51,1.64) | 1.57(1.39,1.77) | 0.76***
| 0.02***
| ||
50–69 | 17.22(16.85,17.60) | 21.66(21.17,22.14) | 23.00(22.55,23.41) | 21.82(21.30,22.27) | 21.02(20.50,21.47) | 20.94(18.92,23.31) | 10.45***
| 0.09***
| ||
> 70 | 28.57(26.94,29.47) | 39.76(36.83,41.28) | 52.17(47.82,54.26) | 57.20(51.25,60.24) | 57.67(50.69,61.44) | 57.38(49.26,63.45) | 30.70***
| 0.63***
| ||
HI | Mortality | |||||||||
0–14 | 0.09(0.08,0.10) | 0.08(0.08,0.10) | 0.09(0.08,0.09) | 0.08(0.08,0.09) | 0.08(0.07,0.09) | 0.08(0.07,0.09) | 0.08***
| 0.01*
| ||
15–49 | 0.76(0.72,0.82) | 0.91(0.89,0.95) | 1.17(1.13,1.22) | 1.05(1.01,1.10) | 0.87(0.83,0.90) | 0.86(0.79,0.94) | 0.58***
| 0.01*
| ||
50–69 | 14.49(14.19,14.78) | 17.65(17.28,17.99) | 17.76(17.42,18.09) | 15.80(15.41,16.14) | 15.21(14.87,15.49) | 15.18(14.29,15.86) | 10.45***
| 0.09*
| ||
> 70 | 29.71(27.99,30.67) | 39.15(36.28,40.59) | 49.36(45.03,51.39) | 52.13(46.38,54.94) | 51.58(45.19,54.79) | 51.22(44.59,54.84) | 33.37***
| 0.46***
| ||
1-MIR | ||||||||||
0–14 | 0.49(0.45,0.52) | 0.53(0.49,0.57) | 0.56(0.53,0.60) | 0.58(0.56,0.62) | 0.61(0.58,0.65) | 0.61(0.57,0.66) | 0.49***
| 0.004*
| ||
15–49 | 0.26(0.27,0.26) | 0.30(0.31,0.30) | 0.33(0.34,0.33) | 0.41(0.41,0.41) | 0.45(0.45,0.45) | 0.45(0.43,0.47) | 0.24***
| 0.01*
| ||
50–69 | 0.16(0.16,0.16) | 0.19(0.18,0.19) | 0.23(0.23,0.23) | 0.28(0.28,0.28) | 0.28(0.27,0.28) | 0.28(0.24,0.32) | 10.45***
| 0.09*
| ||
> 70 | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.02(0.01,0.02) | 0.05(0.06,0.05) | 0.09(0.09,0.09) | 0.11(0.11,0.11) | 0.11(0.09,0.14) | 0.003***
| 0.001***
| ||
Incidence | ||||||||||
0–14 | 0.16(0.13,0.20) | 0.15(0.12,0.19) | 0.15(0.12,0.19) | 0.16(0.12,0.20) | 0.15(0.12,0.20) | 0.15(0.11,0.19) | 0.13*
| 0.01**
| ||
15–49 | 0.57(0.55,0.60) | 0.54(0.52,0.56) | 0.46(0.44,0.48) | 0.48(0.46,0.50) | 0.50(0.47,0.52) | 0.53(0.46,0.60) | 0.53***
| 0.004**
| ||
50–69 | 8.96(8.58,9.34) | 8.15(7.86,8.46) | 6.78(6.50,7.05) | 7.15(6.86,7.46) | 7.70(7.40,8.01) | 7.84(7.09,8.76) | 8.72***
| −0.03***
| ||
> 70 | 24.21(22.41,25.46) | 21.64(20.04,22.70) | 18.52(16.91,19.59) | 20.40(18.62,21.49) | 22.62(20.70,23.85) | 22.78(20.19,25.18) | 23.19***
| 0.28*
| ||
LAC | Mortality | |||||||||
0–14 | 0.14(0.12,0.16) | 0.13(0.11,0.14) | 0.12(0.11,0.14) | 0.13(0.11,0.15) | 0.12(0.10,0.14) | 0.12(0.09,0.14) | 0.11*
| 0.01**
| ||
15–49 | 0.50(0.48,0.52) | 0.47(0.45,0.49) | 0.40(0.39,0.42) | 0.41(0.40,0.43) | 0.43(0.41,0.45) | 0.45(0.40,0.51) | 0.47***
| 0.003**
| ||
50–69 | 8.76(8.38,9.15) | 7.91(7.61,8.22) | 6.64(6.35,6.93) | 6.87(6.58,7.20) | 7.45(7.17,7.75) | 7.57(6.90,8.44) | 6.97***
| 0.06***
| ||
> 70 | 28.75(26.60,30.26) | 25.48(23.41,26.84) | 22.23(20.26,23.54) | 23.97(21.71,25.45) | 26.99(24.65,28.42) | 27.11(24.15,29.92) | 20.116***
| 0.28*
| ||
1-MIR | ||||||||||
0–14 | 0.12(0.07,0.19) | 0.15(0.08,0.24) | 0.17(0.11,0.27) | 0.18(0.12,0.26) | 0.19(0.15,0.28) | 0.21(0.18,0.26) | 0.21*
| 0.003**
| ||
15–49 | 0.12(0.12,0.12) | 0.12(0.12,0.12) | 0.12(0.12,0.12) | 0.14(0.14,0.13) | 0.14(0.14,0.14) | 0.14(0.14,0.15) | 0.11*
| 0.001**
| ||
50–69 | 0.02(0.02,0.02) | 0.03(0.03,0.03) | 0.02(0.02,0.02) | 0.04(0.04,0.03) | 0.03(0.03,0.03) | 0.03(0.03,0.04) | 0.02*
| 0.001*
| ||
> 70 | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | – | – | ||
Incidence | ||||||||||
0–14 | 0.18(0.11,0.28) | 0.16(0.11,0.23) | 0.16(0.11,0.22) | 0.16(0.11,0.21) | 0.15(0.11,0.21) | 0.14(0.10,0.20) | 0.12***
| −0.01**
| ||
15–49 | 1.02(0.86,1.23) | 1.02(0.88,1.20) | 1.01(0.90,1.14) | 1.06(0.95,1.21) | 1.16(1.00,1.36) | 1.21(0.93,1.56) | 0.80***
| 0.003**
| ||
50–69 | 18.79(16.18,21.53) | 18.01(16.06,19.91) | 17.78(16.35,19.13) | 20.53(18.67,23.07) | 20.73(17.88,24.49) | 19.05(14.66,24.73) | 14.92***
| −0.02**
| ||
> 70 | 38.91(31.72,45.67) | 36.74(32.14,40.97) | 34.76(31.71,37.88) | 37.16(34.30,39.94) | 41.14(37.39,45.27) | 41.38(34.93,49.23) | 37.34***
| 0.27**
| ||
NAME | Mortality | |||||||||
0–14 | 0.19(0.13,0.29) | 0.16(0.12,0.22) | 0.15(0.12,0.20) | 0.15(0.11,0.20) | 0.14(0.11,0.18) | 0.12(0.09,0.17) | 0.12***
| −0.001**
| ||
15–49 | 0.92(0.77,1.10) | 0.91(0.77,1.08) | 0.90(0.79,1.04) | 0.91(0.80,1.04) | 0.98(0.83,1.16) | 1.00(0.75,1.31) | 0.72***
| 0.001**
| ||
50–69 | 18.33(15.76,20.99) | 17.61(15.62,19.62) | 17.79(16.17,19.39) | 19.02(17.33,21.05) | 19.48(16.79,22.70) | 17.73(13.56,23.21) | 14.69***
| −0.05**
| ||
> 70 | 45.40(37.11,53.20) | 42.42(36.69,47.35) | 41.37(37.45,45.03) | 41.77(38.26,45.43) | 45.60(41.27,49.93) | 44.80(37.62,53.57) | 45.17***
| 0.06**
| ||
1-MIR | ||||||||||
0–14 | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.03) | 0.02(0.00,0.08) | 0.05(0.00,0.08) | 0.09(0.01,0.13) | 0.13(0.08,0.12) | 0.08***
| 0.008**
| ||
15–49 | 0.11(0.11,0.10) | 0.11(0.12,0.10) | 0.11(0.12,0.09) | 0.14(0.15,0.14) | 0.16(0.17,0.15) | 0.17(0.19,0.16) | 0.11***
| 0.004**
| ||
50–69 | 0.02(0.03,0.03) | 0.02(0.03,0.01) | 0.00(0.01,0.00) | 0.07(0.07,0.09) | 0.06(0.06,0.07) | 0.07(0.08,0.06) | 0.02***
| 0.003**
| ||
> 70 | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | – | – | ||
SAa
| Incidence | |||||||||
0–14 | 0.18(0.14,0.25) | 0.19(0.15,0.26) | 0.19(0.15,0.26) | 0.19(0.15,0.27) | 0.19(0.15,0.27) | 0.20(0.15,0.30) | – | – | ||
15–49 | 0.61(0.53,0.70) | 0.64(0.56,0.71) | 0.64(0.57,0.70) | 0.65(0.58,0.72) | 0.64(0.57,0.71) | 0.65(0.56,0.76) | – | – | ||
50–69 | 7.24(6.04,8.45) | 7.48(6.28,8.48) | 7.55(6.35,8.41) | 7.57(6.46,8.43) | 7.49(6.75,8.14) | 7.25(6.14,8.48) | – | – | ||
> 70 | 17.61(13.90,20.88) | 18.21(14.50,21.36) | 19.09(15.74,21.69) | 18.63(15.64,20.88) | 18.14(15.81,20.05) | 18.17(15.63,20.82) | – | – | ||
Mortality | ||||||||||
0–14 | 0.20(0.16,0.24) | 0.20(0.16,0.24) | 0.18(0.15,0.22) | 0.17(0.14,0.21) | 0.17(0.14,0.21) | 0.17(0.14,0.22) | – | – | ||
15–49 | 0.54(0.47,0.62) | 0.57(0.50,0.64) | 0.57(0.50,0.63) | 0.58(0.52,0.64) | 0.56(0.51,0.62) | 0.58(0.49,0.67) | – | – | ||
50–69 | 7.08(5.88,8.16) | 7.44(6.31,8.41) | 7.43(6.21,8.35) | 7.37(6.25,8.21) | 7.05(6.34,7.74) | 7.06(6.09,8.24) | – | – | ||
> 70 | 20.64(16.27,24.41) | 21.47(17.07,25.10) | 22.75(18.96,25.70) | 22.68(19.43,25.21) | 21.40(19.08,23.59) | 21.43(18.45,24.75) | – | – | ||
1-MIR | ||||||||||
0–14 | 0.00(0.00,0.02) | 0.00(0.00,0.08) | 0.03(0.00,0.15) | 0.06(0.01,0.21) | 0.08(0.03,0.22) | 0.13(0.08,0.27) | – | – | ||
15–49 | 0.11(0.11,0.12) | 0.11(0.11,0.10) | 0.12(0.13,0.10) | 0.11(0.10,0.11) | 0.12(0.11,0.13) | 0.12(0.12,0.11) | – | – | ||
50–69 | 0.02(0.03,0.03) | 0.01(0.00,0.01) | 0.02(0.02,0.01) | 0.03(0.03,0.03) | 0.06(0.06,0.05) | 0.03(0.01,0.03) | – | – | ||
> 70 | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | – | – | ||
Incidence | ||||||||||
0–14 | 0.43(0.35,0.54) | 0.46(0.39,0.54) | 0.31(0.27,0.37) | 0.21(0.18,0.27) | 0.21(0.17,0.26) | 0.20(0.16,0.25) | 0.22***
| −0.002*
| ||
15–49 | 7.95(6.75,9.37) | 9.73(8.96,10.61) | 6.64(6.23,7.13) | 3.94(3.66,4.34) | 4.39(3.98,4.87) | 4.65(3.87,5.57) | 2.74***
| 0.003**
| ||
50–69 | 64.55(54.53,77.31) | 68.76(63.17,75.15) | 47.12(44.09,50.66) | 25.76(24.21,27.68) | 25.66(23.59,28.04) | 26.76(22.59,31.60) | 29.44***
| −0.22*
| ||
> 70 | 95.94(83.43,110.85) | 106.62(98.76,114.94) | 81.10(75.96,86.32) | 51.83(48.48,55.38) | 51.16(47.22,54.69) | 53.07(46.30,59.79) | 48.09***
| −0.17*
| ||
SAEAO | Mortality | |||||||||
0–14 | 0.47(0.38,0.61) | 0.49(0.43,0.57) | 0.29(0.25,0.35) | 0.20(0.18,0.24) | 0.19(0.17,0.23) | 0.18(0.15,0.22) | 0.26***
| −0.003***
| ||
15–49 | 7.16(6.03,8.45) | 8.75(7.96,9.63) | 5.31(4.86,5.87) | 3.38(3.10,3.72) | 3.49(3.07,3.94) | 3.60(3.00,4.26) | 2.41***
| −0.002**
| ||
50–69 | 62.21(52.55,74.29) | 66.15(59.95,72.75) | 41.03(37.32,45.50) | 24.39(22.42,26.42) | 22.69(20.37,25.13) | 23.43(19.94,27.09) | 28.74***
| −0.24*
| ||
> 70 | 111.15(97.85,127.62) | 124.28(114.20,135.29) | 85.31(78.54,92.30) | 59.15(54.82,63.10) | 55.57(51.05,59.80) | 56.77(49.49,63.45) | 56.50***
| −0.22*
| ||
1-MIR | ||||||||||
0–14 | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.06(0.05,0.07) | 0.04(0.01,0.10) | 0.05(0.03,0.11) | 0.09(0.09,0.11) | 0.06*
| 0.003*
| ||
15–49 | 0.10(0.11,0.10) | 0.10(0.11,0.09) | 0.20(0.22,0.18) | 0.14(0.15,0.14) | 0.21(0.23,0.19) | 0.23(0.23,0.23) | 0.11*
| 0.001***
| ||
50–69 | 0.04(0.04,0.04) | 0.04(0.05,0.03) | 0.13(0.15,0.10) | 0.05(0.07,0.05) | 0.12(0.14,0.10) | 0.12(0.12,0.14) | 0.03*
| 0.001***
| ||
> 70 | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | – | – | ||
Incidence | ||||||||||
0–14 | 0.29(0.19,0.42) | 0.26(0.18,0.37) | 0.22(0.15,0.30) | 0.21(0.15,0.29) | 0.21(0.14,0.30) | 0.19(0.12,0.28) | 0.27*
| −0.004*
| ||
15–49 | 0.97(0.81,1.24) | 1.06(0.93,1.21) | 1.06(0.92,1.23) | 0.94(0.82,1.07) | 0.89(0.77,1.02) | 0.89(0.74,1.05) | 1.30***
| −0.005*
| ||
50–69 | 12.30(10.32,15.48) | 13.84(12.22,15.56) | 13.75(12.22,15.53) | 12.51(11.10,13.94) | 11.88(10.58,13.31) | 11.20(9.74,12.85) | 17.89***
| −0.03*
| ||
> 70 | 28.46(24.17,35.24) | 32.75(29.50,36.24) | 34.04(30.92,37.13) | 31.85(29.36,34.63) | 30.32(27.83,32.92) | 28.83(26.17,31.56) | 40.80***
| −0.13*
| ||
SSA | Mortality | |||||||||
0–14 | 0.36(0.26,0.50) | 0.32(0.24,0.43) | 0.26(0.20,0.34) | 0.25(0.19,0.32) | 0.25(0.18,0.32) | 0.22(0.15,0.31) | 0.34***
| −0.004*
| ||
15–49 | 0.85(0.71,1.10) | 0.92(0.81,1.05) | 0.92(0.80,1.07) | 0.81(0.71,0.94) | 0.79(0.68,0.91) | 0.78(0.65,0.93) | 1.08***
| −0.006*
| ||
50–69 | 12.15(10.28,15.29) | 13.84(12.30,15.51) | 13.41(11.82,15.24) | 12.21(10.78,13.62) | 11.78(10.46,13.15) | 11.02(9.57,12.58) | 19.33***
| −0.09*
| ||
> 70 | 33.65(28.59,41.74) | 39.24(35.32,43.47) | 40.43(36.38,44.42) | 37.76(34.66,41.08) | 36.13(33.18,39.20) | 34.46(31.28,37.67) | 47.06*
| −0.09*
| ||
1-MIR | ||||||||||
0–14 | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | – | – | ||
15–49 | 0.12(0.12,0.12) | 0.13(0.13,0.13) | 0.13(0.13,0.13) | 0.13(0.14,0.12) | 0.11(0.11,0.11) | 0.11(0.12,0.12) | 0.13*
| −0.001**
| ||
50–69 | 0.01(0.00,0.01) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.02(0.03,0.02) | 0.02(0.03,0.02) | 0.01(0.01,0.01) | 0.02(0.02,0.02) | 0.01*
| 0.001**
| ||
> 70 | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | – | – | ||
Incidence | ||||||||||
0–14 | 0.27(0.22,0.34) | 0.27(0.23,0.33) | 0.22(0.19,0.27) | 0.19(0.16,0.24) | 0.19(0.16,0.24) | 0.19(0.15,0.24) | 0.20***
| −0.001*
| ||
15–49 | 3.25(2.83,3.74) | 3.88(3.61,4.17) | 2.86(2.71,3.02) | 1.94(1.84,2.07) | 1.99(1.85,2.13) | 1.99(1.75,2.26) | 1.30***
| 0.008*
| ||
50–69 | 28.35(25.27,32.11) | 31.30(29.56,33.42) | 25.14(24.08,26.32) | 18.19(17.57,18.91) | 17.99(17.17,18.87) | 18.28(16.58,20.34) | 18.12***
| −0.04*
| ||
> 70 | 43.23(39.70,46.80) | 50.97(48.08,53.60) | 48.76(45.87,50.99) | 42.76(39.62,44.60) | 42.82(39.38,44.89) | 43.19(38.68,46.98) | 35.62***
| −0.23*
| ||
Global | Mortality | |||||||||
0–14 | 0.28(0.23,0.35) | 0.28(0.24,0.32) | 0.20(0.18,0.24) | 0.18(0.16,0.21) | 0.18(0.15,0.20) | 0.17(0.14,0.20) | 0.20*
| −0.002*
| ||
15–49 | 2.89(2.50,3.34) | 3.44(3.16,3.74) | 2.28(2.12,2.47) | 1.60(1.51,1.73) | 1.56(1.44,1.71) | 1.54(1.35,1.74) | 1.12*
| 0.004***
| ||
50–69 | 26.85(23.91,30.46) | 29.41(27.36,31.56) | 21.81(20.48,23.23) | 16.18(15.49,16.88) | 15.49(14.64,16.38) | 15.77(14.33,17.25) | 17.37***
| −0.05***
| ||
> 70 | 48.98(44.98,52.91) | 56.81(53.24,60.06) | 50.43(47.01,52.83) | 44.74(41.41,46.73) | 43.64(39.92,45.93) | 43.84(39.65,47.17) | 41.62***
| −0.18***
| ||
1-MIR | ||||||||||
0–14 | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.02) | 0.07(0.04,0.12) | 0.07(0.02,0.15) | 0.08(0.05,0.17) | 0.12(0.10,0.18) | 0.17*
| 0.003*
| ||
15–49 | 0.11(0.11,0.11) | 0.11(0.12,0.10) | 0.20(0.22,0.18) | 0.17(0.18,0.17) | 0.21(0.23,0.20) | 0.23(0.22,0.23) | 0.14*
| 0.002***
| ||
50–69 | 0.05(0.05,0.05) | 0.06(0.07,0.06) | 0.13(0.15,0.12) | 0.11(0.12,0.11) | 0.14(0.15,0.13) | 0.14(0.14,0.15) | 0.03*
| 0.001***
| ||
> 70 | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | – | – |
Measure | Trend | 0–14 | 15–49 | 50–69 | 70+ | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | APC (95%CI) | Year | APC (95%CI) | Year | APC (95%CI) | Year | APC (95%CI) | ||
Mortality | |||||||||
Trend1 | 1990–1996 | 0(−0.30, 0.20) | 1990–1996 | 3.20*(2.70, 3.70) | 1990–1996 | 1.60*(1.30, 2.00) | 1990–1996 | 2.60*(2.40, 2.80) | |
Trend2 | 1996–2000 | −3.80*(−4.50, −3.20) | 1996–2000 | −3.40*(−4.70, −20) | 1996–2000 | −2.30*(−3.20, −1.40) | 1996–2000 | −0.20(− 0.70, 0.30) | |
Trend3 | 2000–2003 | −7.30*(−8.60, −6.00) | 2000–2004 | − 13.10*(− 14.30, −11.90) | 2000–2004 | − 10.40*(− 11.20, −9.60) | 2000–2004 | −5.50*(−6.00, −5.00) | |
Trend4 | 2003–2007 | −1.50*(−2.20, − 0.80) | 2004–2007 | − 3.20*(−5.80, − 0.50) | 2004–2007 | −2.60*(− 4.40, − 0.80) | 2004–2019 | −0.50*(− 0.70, − 0.40) | |
Trend5 | 2007–2012 | 0.10(− 0.40, 0.50) | 2007–2019 | −0.20*(− 0.30, 00) | 2007–2012 | − 1.0*(− 1.60, − 0.50) | |||
Trend6 | 2012–2019 | − 1.00*(− 1.20, − 0.80) | 2012–2019 | 0.50*(0.20, 0.70) | |||||
AAPC | 1990–2019 | − 1.80*(− 2.00, − 1.60) | 1990–2019 | − 2.10*(− 2.50, − 1.80) | 1990–2019 | − 1.80*(− 2.10, − 1.60) | 1990–2019 | − 0.40*(− 0.50, − 0.30) | |
Incidence | |||||||||
Trend1 | 1990–1995 | 0.50*(0.10, 1.00) | 1990–1995 | 3.70*(3.20, 4.10) | 1990–1994 | 2.4*(2.10, 2.7) | 1990–1994 | 3.50*(3.20, 3.80) | |
Trend2 | 1995–2000 | −2.50*(− 3.10, − 1.90) | 1995–2000 | −2.00*(− 2.60, − 1.40) | 1994–1998 | − 0.40(− 0.80, 0.00) | 1994–2000 | 0.90*(0.700, 1.10) | |
Trend3 | 2000–2004 | − 5.50*(− 6.40, − 4.60) | 2000–2005 | − 11.30*(− 11.90, − 10.80) | 1998–2001 | − 3.60*(− 4.50, − 2.80) | 2000–2005 | −4.10*(− 4.40, − 3.80) | |
Trend4 | 2004–2019 | − 0.20*(− 0.30, − 0.10) | 2005–2019 | 0.20*(0.10, 0.30) | 2001–2005 | −9.30*(− 9.70, − 8.90) | 2005–2019 | 0.00(0.00, 0.10) | |
Trend5 | 2005–2011 | − 0.80*(− 1.00, − 0.60) | |||||||
Trend6 | 2011–2019 | 0.30*(0.30, 0.40) | |||||||
AAPC | 1990–2019 | − 1.20*(− 1.40, − 1.10) | 1990–2019 | −1.70*(− 1.90, − 1.50) | 1990–2019 | −1.50*(− 1.60, − 1.40) | 1990–2019 | 0.00(− 0.10, 0.00) | |
1-MIR | |||||||||
Trend1 | 1990–1992 | 8.90(−4.50, 24.20) | 1990–1992 | 10.90*(0.100, 22.90) | |||||
Trend2 | 1992–1999 | − 3.00*(− 5.10, − 0.80) | 1992–1999 | − 2.00*(− 3.70, − 0.30) | |||||
Trend3 | 1999–2002 | 23.90*(8.70, 41.20) | 1999–2002 | 35.00*(21.80, 49.50) | |||||
Trend4 | 2002–2005 | −7.00(−18.40, 6.00) | 2002–2006 | −6.20*(− 10.90, − 1.30) | |||||
Trend5 | 2005–2012 | 3.80*(1.60, 6.20) | 2006–2012 | 4.20*(1.80, 6.60) | |||||
Trend6 | 2012–2019 | 0.40(−1.30, 2.20) | 2012–2019 | −0.50(− 1.90, 0.90) | |||||
AAPC | 1990–2019 | 2.40*(0.30, 4.50) | 1990–2019 | 3.20*(1.70, 4.80) |
Metric | Parameter | Estimate | SE | P value | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Incidence | Intercept | 5.67 | 0.78 | 0.007* | |
Time | 0.02 | 0.004 | 0.025* | ||
Development status | |||||
More Developed | -1.36 | 0.22 | 0.012* | ||
Less-Developed | Reference | - | - | ||
Development status × time | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.157** | ||
Random effects | |||||
\(\sigma_{u_{0i}}^2\) (between countries) | 63.28 | 6.84 | 0.002* | ||
\(\sigma_{\upsilon0}^2\) (between regions) | 3.96 | 3.44 | 0.283** | ||
\(\sigma_{\omega0}^2\) (between super-regions) | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.262** | ||
ICC (%) | |||||
Country level | 88.2 | - | - | - | |
Region level | 5.5 | - | - | - | |
Super-region level | 0.13 | - | - | - | |
Mortality | Intercept | 5.80 | 0.81 | 0.007* | |
Time | 0.02 | 0.005 | 0.043* | ||
Development status | |||||
More Developed | -1.07 | 0.25 | 0.038* | ||
Less-Developed | Reference | ||||
Development status × time | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.083** | ||
Random effects | |||||
\(\sigma_{u_{0i}}^2\) (between countries) | 69.93 | 7.57 | 0.002* | ||
\(\sigma_{\upsilon0}^2\) (between regions) | 4.01 | 3.66 | 0.296** | ||
\(\sigma_{\omega0}^2\) (between super-regions) | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.294** | ||
ICC (%) | |||||
Country level | 88.07 | - | - | - | |
Region level | 5.06 | - | - | - | |
Super-region level | 0.14 | - | - | - |