Background
Methods
Mathematical model
Inputs and assumptions
Alternative scenarios
Outcomes
Main analysis
Sensitivity analysis
Results
Scenario | 0% discount rate | 3% discount rate | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total costs (95% CI), million $ | Total QALYs (95% CI), million | ICER (95% CI), $/QALY | Total costs (95% CI), million $ | Total QALYs (95% CI), million | ICER (95% CI), $/QALY | |
China | ||||||
Status quo | 235,233 (202,975 to 274,054) | 62,061 (53,812 to 71,934) | – | 64,516 (60,785 to 68,688) | 19,907 (18,803 to 21,106) | – |
Optimal pathway | 135,523 (117,264 to 151,530) | 62,177 (53,911 to 72,071) | − 861 (− 998 to − 762) | 59,222 (53,732 to 63,311) | 19,922 (18,818 to 21,122) | − 339 (− 687 to − 79) |
Incremental value | − 99,711 (− 129,313 to − 79,441) | 116 (98 to 138) | – | − 5295 (− 11,148 to − 1197) | 16 (15 to 17) | – |
Urban area | ||||||
Status quo | 192,864 (167,384 to 224,928) | 46,214 (40,370 to 53,409) | – | 53,387 (49,723 to 57,458) | 14,689 (13,864 to 15,656) | – |
Optimal pathway | 108,875 (93,177 to 123,739) | 46,299 (40,442 to 53,509) | − 987 (− 1149 to − 858) | 47,250 (42,273 to 51,218) | 14,701 (13,876 to 15,669) | − 511 (− 913 to − 199) |
Incremental value | − 83,990 (− 108,944 to − 65,382) | 85 (73 to 101) | – | − 6137 (− 11,347 to − 2345) | 12 (11 to 13) | – |
Rural area | ||||||
Status quo | 42,369 (33,919 to 53,818) | 15,846 (13,269 to 19,448) | – | 11,130 (9565 to 12,860) | 5218 (4733 to 5818) | – |
Optimal pathway | 26,648 (21,842 to 31,565) | 15,877 (13,294 to 19,488) | − 512 (− 666 to − 380) | 11,972 (10,405 to 13,413) | 5222 (4736 to 5822) | 234 (− 120 to 544) |
Incremental value | − 15,721 (− 23,542 to − 10,227) | 31 (25 to 39) | – | 842 (− 458 to 1919) | 4 (3 to 4) | – |
Period | Cervical cancer cases averted (95% CI), no. | Cervical cancer deaths averted (95% CI), no. | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
China | Urban area | Rural area | China | Urban area | Rural area | |
2021–2030 | 104,684 (92,294 to 117,425) | 79,967 (69,927 to 89,751) | 24,717 (20,495 to 28,791) | 32,248 (30,575 to 34,004) | 22,986 (21,566 to 24,365) | 9262 (8572 to 10,025) |
2031–2040 | 787,870 (755,292 to 821,308) | 617,718 (585,630 to 650,763) | 170,151 (150,964 to 188,778) | 223,549 (215,113 to 232,653) | 172,801 (164,115 to 181,471) | 50,748 (45,154 to 56,232) |
2041–2050 | 1,055,622 (1,010,812 to 1,118,157) | 842,780 (800,376 to 897,473) | 212,842 (182,616 to 247,162) | 343,138 (330,470 to 358,224) | 277,800 (264,190 to 292,840) | 65,338 (55,339 to 75,919) |
2051–2060 | 1,132,932 (1,092,152 to 1,219,614) | 873,869 (832,217 to 951,946) | 259,064 (227,593 to 299,560) | 382,491 (369,713 to 402,859) | 305,618 (291,910 to 325,951) | 76,873 (65,333 to 89,969) |
2061–2070 | 1,137,444 (1,075,807 to 1,227,010) | 865,938 (809,346 to 942,036) | 271,506 (237,146 to 313,962) | 385,328 (369,061 to 408,807) | 298,520 (281,708 to 319,957) | 86,808 (74,878 to 100,401) |
2071–2080 | 1,118,296 (1,020,789 to 1,256,136) | 840,715 (759,702 to 943,881) | 277,581 (240,072 to 330,623) | 379,921 (352,929 to 418,315) | 283,755 (260,544 to 313,656) | 96,165 (83,562 to 112,677) |
2081–2090 | 1,091,456 (966,871 to 1,291,902) | 804,785 (706,821 to 953,063) | 286,671 (242,893 to 353,727) | 391,759 (353,916 to 465,217) | 288,997 (258,995 to 344,650) | 102,762 (88,340 to 127,582) |
2091–2100 | 1,080,888 (908,727 to 1,307,522) | 788,935 (663,914 to 958,552) | 291,953 (237,094 to 368,522) | 391,439 (345,049 to 482,525) | 288,963 (253,299 to 358,500) | 102,476 (86,152 to 129,630) |
Total | 7,509,192 (6,922,744 to 8,359,074) | 5,714,707 (5,227,933 to 6,387,465) | 1,794,485 (1,538,873 to 2,131,125) | 2,529,873 (2,366,826 to 2,802,604) | 1,939,440 (1,796,327 to 2,161,390) | 590,432 (507,330 to 702,435) |