Introduction
Background and conceptual framework
State of the art on COVID-19 vaccination predictors
Time preferences for preventive behaviors and COVID-19
Conceptual framework
Methods
Data
Methods
Analysis
Results
Descriptive statistics
VARIABLES | n | Mean | Std. Dev | Rangea |
---|---|---|---|---|
Dependent variable | ||||
When would you like to get vaccinated against COVID-19 (coronavirus)? | ||||
As soon as possible | 7,114 | 0.273 | 0.445 | |
Delay | 5,168 | 0.198 | 0.398 | |
Never | 2,962 | 0.113 | 0.317 | |
I have already been vaccinated | 9,063 | 0.347 | 0.476 | |
Don’t know | 1,460 | 0.056 | 0.230 | |
Prefer not to answer | 339 | 0.013 | 0.113 | |
Independent variables | ||||
Local vaccination rates (in percent)b | 27 | 34.4 | 8.62 | 11.0 – 58.0 |
Trust in public and health entities | ||||
Among all the following sources, which ones would you trust more to give you reliable information on COVID-19 vaccines? | ||||
European Union | 5,999 | 0.230 | 0.421 | |
National government | 4,763 | 0.182 | 0.386 | |
National health authorities | 11,442 | 0.438 | 0.496 | |
Local and regional public authorities | 3,266 | 0.125 | 0.331 | |
Health professionals, doctors, nurses, and pharmacists | 15,818 | 0.606 | 0.489 | |
Media (television, radio, newspapers) | 2,815 | 0.108 | 0.310 | |
Websites | 2,080 | 0.080 | 0.271 | |
Online social networks | 1,483 | 0.057 | 0.231 | |
People around you (colleagues, friends, and family) | 4,049 | 0.155 | 0.362 | |
Social norm | ||||
You would be more eager to get vaccinated against COVID-19 if you see more people around you doing it | ||||
Yes | 3,729 | 0.143 | 0.350 | |
No | 22,377 | 0.857 | 0.350 | |
Vaccine safety | ||||
To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? | ||||
COVID-19 vaccines are being developed, tested, and authorized too quickly to be safe | ||||
Totally agree/tend to agree | 14,337 | 0.549 | 0.498 | |
Totally disagree/tend to disagree | 9,744 | 0.373 | 0.484 | |
Don’t know | 2,025 | 0.078 | 0.267 | |
COVID-19 vaccines may have long term side effects that we do not know yet | ||||
Totally agree/tend to agree | 16,817 | 0.644 | 0.479 | |
Totally disagree/tend to disagree | 5,975 | 0.229 | 0.420 | |
Don’t know | 3,314 | 0.127 | 0.333 | |
Risk understanding | ||||
To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? | ||||
You can avoid being infected by COVID-19 without being vaccinated | ||||
Totally agree/tend to agree | 12,486 | 0.478 | 0.500 | |
Totally disagree/tend to disagree | 11,181 | 0.428 | 0.495 | |
Don’t know | 2,439 | 0.093 | 0.291 | |
Demographics | ||||
Age (in years) | ||||
15 to 24 | 3,597 | 0.138 | 0.345 | |
25 to 39 | 6,803 | 0.261 | 0.439 | |
40 to 49 | 4,641 | 0.178 | 0.382 | |
50 to 64 | 6,558 | 0.251 | 0.434 | |
65 and above | 4,507 | 0.173 | 0.378 | |
Gender | ||||
Male | 12,549 | 0.481 | 0.500 | |
Female | 13,471 | 0.516 | 0.500 | |
In another way | 64 | 0.002 | 0.049 | |
Prefer not to answer | 22 | 0.001 | 0.029 | |
Age when full time education was stopped | ||||
Up to 15 years | 809 | 0.031 | 0.173 | |
16 to 19 years | 7,962 | 0.305 | 0.460 | |
20 years or older | 12,119 | 0.464 | 0.499 | |
Still in full time education | 2,952 | 0.113 | 0.317 | |
Never been in full time education | 639 | 0.024 | 0.155 | |
Don’t know | 1,184 | 0.045 | 0.208 | |
Refusal | 441 | 0.017 | 0.129 | |
Type of community | ||||
Rural area or village | 6,517 | 0.250 | 0.433 | |
Town/city | 19,589 | 0.750 | 0.433 | |
Children in house | ||||
Yes | 7,433 | 0.285 | 0.451 | |
No | 17,046 | 0.653 | 0.476 | |
Don’t know | 534 | 0.020 | 0.142 | |
Refusal | 1,093 | 0.042 | 0.200 |
Two-sample group proportions test
` | Group 1 | Group 2 | z | p-value | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N | Mean (Std. Dev.) | N | Mean (Std. Dev.) | |||
Local vaccination rates | ||||||
Vaccination rate < 30% | Vaccination rate > 30% | |||||
Delay vs. already vaccinated | 2337 | 0.495 (0.500) | 11894 | 0.337 (0.473) | -14.5 | 0.000 |
Delay vs. as soon as possible | 1747 | 0.662 (0.473) | 10535 | 0.381 (0.486) | -22.0 | 0.000 |
Delay vs. never | 1917 | 0.603 (0.489) | 6213 | 0.646 (0.478) | 3.40 | 0.001 |
Trust in public, health, and social entities for giving reliable COVID-19 vaccine information | ||||||
Trust in European Union | No trust in European Union | |||||
Delay vs. already vaccinated | 3480 | 0.318 (0.466) | 10751 | 0.378 (0.485) | 6.44 | 0.000 |
Delay vs. as soon as possible | 3208 | 0.344 (0.475) | 9074 | 0.448 (0.497) | 10.2 | 0.000 |
Delay vs. never | 1301 | 0.849 (0.358) | 6829 | 0.595 (0.491) | -17.5 | 0.000 |
Trust in national government | No trust in national government | |||||
Delay vs. already vaccinated | 2643 | 0.296 (0.457) | 11588 | 0.378 (0.485) | 7.93 | 0.000 |
Delay vs. as soon as possible | 2606 | 0.300 (0.459) | 9676 | 0.453 (0.498) | 14.0 | 0.000 |
Delay vs. never | 925 | 0.846 (0.361) | 7205 | 0.609 (0.488) | -14.2 | 0.000 |
Trust in national health authorities | No trust in national health authorities | |||||
Delay vs. already vaccinated | 6824 | 0.280 (0.449) | 7407 | 0.439 (0.496) | 19.7 | 0.000 |
Delay vs. as soon as possible | 5779 | 0.331 (0.471) | 6503 | 0.501 (0.500) | 19.0 | 0.000 |
Delay vs. never | 2242 | 0.853 (0.354) | 5888 | 0.553 (0.497) | -25.2 | 0.000 |
Trust in local and regional public authorities | No trust in local and regional public authorities | |||||
Delay vs. already vaccinated | 1769 | 0.332 (0.471) | 12,462 | 0.368 (0.482) | 2.93 | 0.003 |
Delay vs. as soon as possible | 1879 | 0.312 (0.464) | 10,403 | 0.440 (0.496) | 10.3 | 0.000 |
Delay vs. never | 696 | 0.843 (0.364) | 7434 | 0.616 (0.486) | -11.9 | 0.000 |
Trust in health professionals, doctors, nurses, and pharmacists | No trust in health professionals, doctors, nurses, and pharmacists | |||||
Delay vs. already vaccinated | 9407 | 0.313 (0.464) | 4824 | 0.461 (0.499) | 17.4 | 0.000 |
Delay vs. as soon as possible | 7645 | 0.385 (0.487) | 4637 | 0.480 (0.500) | 10.3 | 0.000 |
Delay vs. never | 3850 | 0.765 (0.424) | 4280 | 0.520 (0.500) | -22.9 | 0.000 |
Trust in media | No trust in media | |||||
Delay vs. already vaccinated | 1517 | 0.384 (0.487) | 12,714 | 0.361 (0.480) | -1.81 | 0.070 |
Delay vs. as soon as possible | 1583 | 0.368 (0.482) | 10,699 | 0.429 (0.495) | 4.53 | 0.000 |
Delay vs. never | 752 | 0.775 (0.418) | 7378 | 0.621 (0.485) | -8.35 | 0.000 |
Trust in websites | No trust in websites | |||||
Delay vs. already vaccinated | 1014 | 0.475 (0.500) | 13,217 | 0.354 (0.478) | -7.71 | 0.000 |
Delay vs. as soon as possible | 1074 | 0.449 (0.498) | 11,208 | 0.418 (0.493) | -1.95 | 0.052 |
Delay vs. never | 802 | 0.601 (0.490) | 7328 | 0.639 (0.480) | 2.15 | 0.032 |
Trust in online social networks | No trust in online social networks | |||||
Delay vs. already vaccinated | 701 | 0.572 (0.495) | 13,530 | 0.352 (0.478) | -11.8 | 0.000 |
Delay vs. as soon as possible | 793 | 0.506 (0.500) | 11,489 | 0.415 (0.493) | -5.01 | 0.000 |
Delay vs. never | 679 | 0.591 (0.492) | 7451 | 0.640 (0.480) | 2.55 | 0.011 |
Trust in people around you | No trust in people around you | |||||
Delay vs. already vaccinated | 2116 | 0.518 (0.500) | 12,115 | 0.336 (0.472) | -16.0 | 0.000 |
Delay vs. as soon as possible | 2186 | 0.501 (0.500) | 10,096 | 0.403 (0.491) | -8.42 | 0.000 |
Delay vs. never | 1599 | 0.685 (0.464) | 6531 | 0.623 (0.485) | -4.61 | 0.000 |
Social norms- you would be more eager to get vaccinated if you see more people around you doing it | ||||||
Yes | No | |||||
Delay vs. already vaccinated | 2171 | 0.433 (0.496) | 12,060 | 0.351 (0.477) | -7.30 | 0.000 |
Delay vs. as soon as possible | 2251 | 0.417 (0.493) | 10,031 | 0.422 (0.494) | 0.386 | 0.699 |
Delay vs. never | 1027 | 0.914 (0.280) | 7103 | 0.595 (0.491) | -19.9 | 0.000 |
Variables | Group 1 | Group 2 | z | p-value | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N | Mean (Std. Dev.) | N | Mean (Std. Dev.) | |||
Vaccine safety- COVID-19 vaccines are being developed, tested, and authorized too quickly to be safe | ||||||
Agree/tend to agree | Disagree/tend to disagree | |||||
Delay vs. already vaccinated | 7286 | 0.507 (0.500) | 5762 | 0.203 (0.403) | -35.6 | 0.000 |
Delay vs. as soon as possible | 6948 | 0.532 (0.499) | 4463 | 0.263 (0.440) | -28.4 | 0.000 |
Delay vs. never | 6175 | 0.598 (0.490) | 1573 | 0.745 (0.436) | 10.8 | 0.000 |
Vaccine safety- COVID-19 vaccines may have long term side effects that we do not know of yet | ||||||
Agree/tend to agree | Disagree/tend to disagree | |||||
Delay vs. already vaccinated | 8621 | 0.462 (0.499) | 3571 | 0.222 (0.416) | -24.8 | 0.000 |
Delay vs. as soon as possible | 8096 | 0.492 (0.500) | 2814 | 0.281 (0.450) | -19.4 | 0.000 |
Delay vs. never | 6636 | 0.601 (0.490) | 1016 | 0.780 (0.415) | 11.0 | 0.000 |
Risk understanding- you can avoid being infected by COVID-19 without getting vaccinated | ||||||
Agree/tend to agree | Disagree/tend to disagree | |||||
Delay vs. already vaccinated | 5918 | 0.535 (0.499) | 6945 | 0.219 (0.414) | -37.1 | 0.000 |
Delay vs. as soon as possible | 6204 | 0.510 (0.500) | 5003 | 0.304 (0.460) | -22.0 | 0.000 |
Delay vs. never | 5519 | 0.573 (0.495) | 1960 | 0.777 (0.417) | 16.0 | 0.000 |
Multivariate analysis
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VARIABLES | Delay vs. Already | Delay vs. As soon as possible | Delay vs. Already + As soon as possible | Never vs. Delay | Don't know vs. Delay | Never + Don't know vs. Delay |
AME (Std. Err.) | AME (Std. Err.) | AME (Std. Err.) | AME (Std. Err.) | AME (Std. Err.) | AME (Std. Err.) | |
Local vaccination rates (ref. = less than 30%) | ||||||
30 to 40% | -0.058 | -0.222** | -0.111** | -0.037 | 0.005 | -0.026 |
(0.055) | (0.041) | (0.040) | (0.028) | (0.022) | (0.027) | |
40% or more | -0.187 | -0.101 | -0.142* | -0.029 | 0.030 | -0.004 |
(0.096) | (0.054) | (0.063) | (0.062) | (0.030) | (0.054) | |
Trust in sources for reliable COVID-19 vaccines information | ||||||
Among all the following sources, which ones would you trust more to give you reliable information on COVID-19 vaccines? | ||||||
European Union | -0.038** | -0.039** | -0.034** | -0.145** | -0.060** | -0.128** |
(0.012) | (0.011) | (0.007) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.016) | |
National government | -0.012 | -0.059** | -0.030** | -0.084** | -0.033 | -0.063** |
(0.013) | (0.017) | (0.011) | (0.023) | (0.018) | (0.021) | |
National health authorities | -0.037** | -0.062** | -0.039** | -0.177** | -0.044** | -0.139** |
(0.010) | (0.011) | (0.007) | (0.011) | (0.011) | (0.012) | |
Local and regional public authorities | 0.004 | -0.039** | -0.014 | -0.074** | -0.040 | -0.066** |
(0.017) | (0.014) | (0.011) | (0.029) | (0.023) | (0.025) | |
Health professionals, doctors, nurses, and pharmacists | -0.045** | -0.030* | -0.030** | -0.160** | -0.048** | -0.137** |
(0.007) | (0.012) | (0.007) | (0.012) | (0.011) | (0.012) | |
Media (television, radio, newspapers) | 0.017 | -0.029* | -0.006 | -0.048** | -0.020 | -0.043* |
(0.011) | (0.012) | (0.007) | (0.017) | (0.016) | (0.017) | |
Websites | 0.009 | 0.004 | 0.004 | 0.034 | 0.014 | 0.040* |
(0.018) | (0.018) | (0.012) | (0.020) | (0.014) | (0.016) | |
Online social networks | 0.042** | 0.017 | 0.023* | 0.056* | -0.029 | 0.035 |
(0.014) | (0.017) | (0.011) | (0.022) | (0.017) | (0.021) | |
People around you (colleagues, friends, and family) | 0.043** | 0.034* | 0.035** | -0.048** | -0.001 | -0.033* |
(0.013) | (0.014) | (0.008) | (0.015) | (0.014) | (0.014) | |
Social norm | ||||||
You would be more eager to get vaccinated against COVID-19 if you see more people around you doing it. (ref. = no) | ||||||
Yes | 0.037** | 0.002 | 0.016 | -0.256** | -0.083** | -0.208** |
(0.013) | (0.014) | (0.009) | (0.025) | (0.017) | (0.019) | |
Vaccine safety | ||||||
To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? | ||||||
COVID-19 vaccines are being developed, tested, and authorized too quickly to be safe. (ref. = totally disagree/tend to disagree) | ||||||
Totally agree/tend to agree | 0.143** | 0.151** | 0.119** | 0.032 | 0.013 | 0.031* |
(0.009) | (0.011) | (0.008) | (0.018) | (0.013) | (0.015) | |
Don’t know | 0.040** | 0.053** | 0.036** | -0.042 | 0.074** | 0.034 |
(0.013) | (0.017) | (0.011) | (0.025) | (0.029) | (0.026) | |
COVID-19 vaccines could have long term side effects that we do not know yet. (ref. = totally disagree/tend to disagree) | ||||||
Totally agree/tend to agree | 0.090** | 0.097** | 0.076** | 0.083** | 0.065** | 0.100** |
(0.011) | (0.010) | (0.008) | (0.022) | (0.017) | (0.021) | |
Don’t know | -0.024 | -0.016 | -0.018 | -0.044 | 0.086** | 0.049 |
(0.012) | (0.015) | (0.010) | (0.025) | (0.028) | (0.029) | |
Risk understanding | ||||||
To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? | ||||||
You can avoid being infected by COVID-19 without being vaccinated. (ref. = totally disagree/tend to disagree) | ||||||
Totally agree/tend to agree | 0.127** | 0.111** | 0.098** | 0.128** | 0.068** | 0.127** |
(0.009) | (0.014) | (0.010) | (0.013) | (0.011) | (0.011) | |
Don’t know | 0.093** | 0.103** | 0.079** | -0.003 | 0.140** | 0.092** |
(0.013) | (0.012) | (0.008) | (0.025) | (0.016) | (0.020) | |
Demographics | ||||||
Age (ref. = 15–24 years) | ||||||
25–39 years | -0.115** | -0.037* | -0.051** | -0.002 | -0.011 | -0.003 |
(0.018) | (0.017) | (0.012) | (0.020) | (0.015) | (0.020) | |
40–49 years | -0.223** | -0.097** | -0.117** | -0.021 | -0.020 | -0.019 |
(0.019) | (0.020) | (0.014) | (0.019) | (0.022) | (0.022) | |
50–64 years | -0.328** | -0.115** | -0.177** | 0.004 | -0.025 | -0.005 |
(0.024) | (0.024) | (0.016) | (0.027) | (0.019) | (0.025) | |
65 years and above | -0.447** | -0.120** | -0.258** | -0.004 | -0.039 | -0.018 |
(0.031) | (0.031) | (0.021) | (0.029) | (0.025) | (0.027) | |
Gender (ref. = female) | ||||||
Male | 0.014 | -0.019 | -0.001 | -0.017 | -0.046** | -0.033** |
(0.008) | (0.012) | (0.007) | (0.010) | (0.011) | (0.011) | |
In another way | 0.091 | 0.068 | 0.071 | -0.049 | -0.060 | -0.072 |
(0.100) | (0.073) | (0.061) | (0.100) | (0.101) | (0.113) | |
Prefer not to answer | -0.024 | -0.092 | -0.059 | -0.007 | 0.189 | 0.134 |
(0.163) | (0.123) | (0.091) | (0.164) | (0.100) | (0.105) | |
Age when full time education was stopped (ref. = 20 years or older) | ||||||
Up to 15 years | 0.001 | 0.016 | 0.010 | 0.056 | 0.064 | 0.072 |
(0.023) | (0.027) | (0.019) | (0.042) | (0.036) | (0.040) | |
16–19 years | 0.013 | 0.022 | 0.014 | 0.037** | 0.039** | 0.045** |
(0.011) | (0.013) | (0.008) | (0.012) | (0.012) | (0.013) | |
Still in full time education | 0.009 | -0.029 | -0.013 | 0.008 | 0.039* | 0.035* |
(0.021) | (0.019) | (0.014) | (0.020) | (0.019) | (0.016) | |
Never been in full time education | 0.075** | 0.077** | 0.064** | -0.003 | -0.027 | -0.016 |
(0.026) | (0.028) | (0.020) | (0.033) | (0.041) | (0.031) | |
Don’t know | 0.009 | 0.004 | 0.006 | 0.070** | 0.124** | 0.115** |
(0.019) | (0.024) | (0.015) | (0.020) | (0.027) | (0.027) | |
Refusal | 0.008 | 0.000 | 0.002 | 0.120** | 0.077* | 0.120** |
(0.031) | (0.057) | (0.032) | (0.030) | (0.035) | (0.029) | |
Type of community (ref. = town/city) | ||||||
Rural | -0.011 | 0.001 | -0.005 | 0.053** | 0.010 | 0.040** |
(0.011) | (0.015) | (0.009) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.014) | |
Children in house (ref. = no) | ||||||
Yes | 0.033** | 0.005 | 0.015* | -0.005 | -0.009 | -0.009 |
(0.011) | (0.009) | (0.007) | (0.012) | (0.011) | (0.012) | |
Don’t know | 0.149** | 0.067* | 0.077** | 0.007 | -0.027 | -0.011 |
(0.034) | (0.034) | (0.026) | (0.036) | (0.023) | (0.033) | |
Refusal | 0.043** | 0.036 | 0.032* | 0.034 | 0.033 | 0.041 |
(0.016) | (0.025) | (0.015) | (0.024) | (0.029) | (0.023) | |
Observations | 14,231 | 12,282 | 21,345 | 8,130 | 6,628 | 9,590 |
Pseudo R2 | 0.285 | 0.124 | 0.168 | 0.181 | 0.061 | 0.119 |
Log pseudolikelihood | -6663.08 | -7326.20 | -9828.79 | -4369.42 | -3282.06 | -5829.99 |