Background
Materials and methods
Population sample
Methods
Simulation model
Validation of the UKPDS outcome model for cardiovascular (CVD) events in Mexicans
Results
Population of 20 years or older | n = 56,745,719 |
---|---|
Diabetic population
| |
Previously diagnosed | 3,138,720 (7.0) |
Diagnosed during the survey | 4,178,230 (7.4%) |
Total | 7,316,950 (14.4) |
Time from diagnosis (years)
| 0.5(0-7) |
Age (years)
| 52 (42-62) |
Men | 51(41-60) |
Women | 53 (42-64) |
Weight(kg)
| 71.6 (64-80.8) |
Height (m)
| 1.57 (1.5-1.63) |
Total Cholesterol (mmol/l)
| 5.22 (5.14-5.29) |
HDL cholesterol (mmol/l)
| 1.02 (1.01-1.03) |
Systolic blood pressure (mmHg.)
| 130 (120-140) |
HbA1c (%)
| 11.4 (10.15-11.8) |
Smoking
| |
Never | 5,395,934 (68.4) |
Past | 1,174,763(14.9) |
Currently | 1,322,280(16.8) |
Twenty year incidence of macrovascular complications
Simulated years | Accumulated probability | Number of expected cases/1000 diabetics | Confidence Interval 95% | Total expected cases (CI95%) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ischaemic heart disease | |||||
1 | 0.009 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 73,482 (52,026-94,939) |
5 | 0.039 | 39 | 29 | 49 | 311,146 (232,355-389,936) |
10 | 0.069 | 69 | 53 | 86 | 547,679 (415,306-680,052) |
15 | 0.094 | 93 | 71 | 116 | 738,373 (557,617-919,129) |
20 | 0.112 | 112 | 84 | 140 | 882,433 (661,744-1,103,123) |
Myocardial infarction | |||||
1 | 0.019 | 20 | 13 | 26 | 155,025 (102,215-207,836) |
5 | 0.088 | 88 | 67 | 109 | 695,535 (526,932-864,139) |
10 | 0.159 | 159 | 128 | 191 | 1,258,903 (1,010,065-1,507,742) |
15 | 0.216 | 217 | 178 | 255 | 1,710,383 (1,405,667-2,015,099) |
20 | 0.259 | 260 | 215 | 304 | 2,048,996 (1,699,743-2,398,248) |
Heart failure | |||||
1 | 0.010 | 10 | 5 | 16 | 81,640 (35,674-127,607) |
5 | 0.039 | 40 | 22 | 57 | 311,887 (177,573-446-201) |
10 | 0.069 | 70 | 41 | 98 | 551,131 (325,182-777,081) |
15 | 0.094 | 94 | 55 | 133 | 742,646 (434,411-1,050,081) |
20 | 0.112 | 113 | 65 | 161 | 889,443 (509,638-1,269-248) |
Cerebrovascular disease | |||||
1 | 0.008 | 9 | 4 | 13 | 68,070 (35,505-100,636) |
5 | 0.035 | 36 | 24 | 48 | 282,893 (186,677-379,110) |
10 | 0.063 | 63 | 44 | 82 | 498,794 (348,475-649,112) |
15 | 0.085 | 85 | 59 | 111 | 671,080 (469,221-872,938) |
20 | 0.101 | 101 | 69 | 133 | 798,188 (544,809-1,051,568) |
Amputation | |||||
1 | 0.006 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 51,666 (16,656-86,676) |
5 | 0.021 | 22 | 12 | 31 | 170,582 (94,289-246,875) |
10 | 0.036 | 36 | 23 | 49 | 282,205 (179,425-384,985) |
15 | 0.049 | 49 | 32 | 66 | 389,413 (255,649-523,177) |
20 | 0.062 | 62 | 40 | 85 | 491,236 (313,900-668,572) |
Outcome | Asian | White | Afro-Caribbean |
---|---|---|---|
Ischemic heart disease | 0.112 (0.084-0.14) | 0.090 (0.064-0.117) | 0.096 (0.068-0.124) |
Myocardial infarction | 0.259 (0.215-0.304) | 0.220 (0.174-0.265) | 0.075* (0.015-0.134) |
Heart failure | 0.112 (0.065-0.161) | 0.115 (0.067-0.163) | 0.124 (0.072-0.175) |
Cerebrovascular disease | 0.101 (0.069-0.133) | 0.096 (0.067-0.125) | 0.110 (0.080-0.140) |
Amputation | 0.062 (0.040-0.085) | 0.063 (0.040-0.086) | 0.068 (0.043-0.093) |
Death | 0.538 (0.508-0.570) | 0.529 (0.495-0.563) | 0.489 (0.455-0.524) |
Death and life expectancy
Simulated years | Accumulated probability | Number of expected cases/1000 persons with diabetes | 95% Confidence Interval | Total expected cases (95% CI) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 0.043 | 43 | 33 | 54 | 345,066 (263,705-426,428) |
5 | 0.162 | 162 | 144 | 180 | 1,280,852 (1,138,935-1,422,769) |
10 | 0.292 | 292 | 272 | 312 | 2,305,420 (2,148,055-2,462,786) |
15 | 0.416 | 416 | 394 | 440 | 3,290,559 (3,111,409-3,469,410) |
20 | 0.538 | 538 | 508 | 570 | 4,251,383 (4,007,547-4,495,220) |
Complication | Probability (95% CI) | Expected Cases (95% CI) | Probability (95% CI) | Expected Cases (95% CI) | Probability (CI95%) | Expected Cases* (CI95%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Women
n = 3,931,127
|
Time evolution
≤ 10 years
n = 6,652,964
|
Age at diagnosis
≤ 40 years
n = 2,590,066
| ||||
Ischemic heart
| 0.095 (0.066-0.124) | 373,457 (259,454-487,460) | 0.117 (0.089-0.145) | 778,397 (592,114-964,680) | 0.087 (0.060-0.115) | 225,336 (155,404-297,858) |
Myocardial infarction
| 0.196 (0.142-0.249) | 770,501 (558,220-978,851) | 0.264 (0.223-0.305) | 1,756,382 (1,483,611-2,029,154) | 0.129 (0.096-0.162) | 334,119 (248,646-419,591) |
Heart failure
| 0.127 (0.072-0.183) | 499,253 (283,041-719,396) | 0.107 (0.065-0.148) | 711,867 (432,443-984,639) | 0.037 (0.016-0.058) | 95,832 (41,441-150,224) |
Cerebrovascular disease
| 0.093 (0.063-0.122) | 365,595 (247,661-479,597) | 0.097 (0.068-0.126) | 645,338 (452,402-838,273) | 0.030 (0.003-0.057) | 77,702 (7,770-147,634) |
Amputation
| 0.065 (0.040-0.089) | 255,523 (157,245-349,870) | 0.058 (0.040-0.077) | 385,872 (266,119-512,278) | 0.065 (0.036-0.094) | 168,354 (93,242-243,466) |
Death
| 0.531 (0.498-0.565) | 2,087,428 (1,957,701-2,221,087) | 0.467 (0.435-0.499) | 3,106,934 (2,894,039-3,319,829) | 0.283 (0.250-0.317) | 7,332,989 (647,517-821,051) |
Men
n = 3,961,850
|
Time evolution
> 10 years
n = 1,240,012
|
Age at diagnosis
> 40 years
n = 5,302,911
| ||||
Ischemic heart disease
| 0.136 (0.102-0.170) | 538,812 (404,109-673,515) | 0.080 (0.050-0.110) | 99,201 (62,001-136,401) | 0.122 (0.091-0.152) | 646,955 (482,565-806,042) |
Myocardial infarction
| 0.352 (0.315-0.390) | 1,394,571 (1,247,983-1,545,122) | 0.231 (0.161-0.301) | 286,443 (199,642-372,244) | 0.315 (0.260-0.370) | 1,670,417 (1,378,757-1,962,077) |
Heart failure
| 0.091 (0.053-0.128) | 360,528 (209,978-507,117) | 0.148 (0.056-0.241) | 183,522 (69,441-298,843) | 0.145 (0.085-0.204) | 768,922 (450,747-1,081,794) |
Cerebrovascular disease
| 0.112 (0.074-0.149) | 443,727 (293,177-590,316) | 0.120 (0.065-0.175) | 148,801 (80,601-217,002) | 0.131 (0.094-0.168) | 694,681 (498,474-890,889) |
Amputation
| 0.059 (0.039-0.079) | 233,749 (154,512-312,986) | 0.088 (0.037-0.139) | 109,121 (45,880-172,362) | 0.062 (0.041-0.082) | 328,780 (217,419-434,839) |
Death
| 0.550 (0.522-0.578) | 2,179,018 (2,068,086-2,289,949) | 0.956 (0.928-0.984) | 1,185,451 (1,150,731-1,220,172) | 0.647 (0.612-0.681) | 3,430,983 (3,245,382-3,611,282) |