Background
Climate and malaria
Malaria and mosquito models
Model summary and motivation
Material and methods: model description
Summary of the model
Variable | Description | Equation(s)/reference |
---|---|---|
T
indoor
| Indoor temperature | 36 |
T
air
| Near surfacetemperature (2 m) | 25, 26, 30, 36 |
ε
| Potential number ofnew eggs | 13 |
m
n
| Number of mosquitoes ineach age group | 8 |
P(B) | Daily probability of gettinga blood meal | 41 |
T
water
| Water temperature | 14, 16, 18 |
T
soil
| 0-10 cm soil temperature | |
βN,L(T
water
) | Natural mortiality rate,eggs, larva, and pupa | 14, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 |
τ
g
a
m
b
| An. gambiae s.s. develop- ment rate, aquatic stages | 20 |
τ
arab
| An. arabiensis develop-ment rate, aquatic stages | 22 |
τ
E
| An. gambiae s.l. development rate, eggs | [97] 1 |
An. gambiae s.l. development rate, instar 1-4 | [97] 2, 3, 4, 5 | |
τ
P
| An. gambiae s.l. development rate, pupa | [97] 6 |
f
arab
| Aquatic development rate modification An. arabiensis | [8] |
f
g
a
m
b
| Aquatic development rate modification An. gambiae s.s. | [8] |
L
n
| Number of larvae | 21, 19 |
f
arab
| Mortality rate modification | [72] 17 |
f
g
a
m
b
| Mortality rate modification | [72] 15 |
S
f
| scaling factor for winddispersion | 39 |
F
r
m
| Flight range | 41 |
E
| Number of eggs | 1 |
G(T) | Biting rate/gonotrophiccycle | 26 |
t
| time | |
B
L
| Larva biomass | 1 |
β
I,x
| Induced mortalityin aquatic and adult stages | 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6,7, 8 |
S
M
r
| Dimensionless time varying water constant, or rate at which ovipositing sites are found | 24 |
K
| Carrying capacity | 24 |
L
1
| Number of 1
st
instar larva | 2 |
L
2
| Number of 2
nd
instar larva | 3 |
L
3
| Number of 3
rd
instar larva | 4 |
L
4
| Number of 4
th
instar larva | 5 |
P
| Number of pupa | 6 |
C
pred
| Predation constant.Currently set to 0 | 2 |
F
g
o
n
o
t
| part of gonotrophic cycle formulation | 26 |
D
d
| Degree days | [108], 26 |
T
c
| Critical temperature | 26 |
β
h,m
| Adult mortality related to feeding | 42 |
h
| Number of humans | [42] |
Φ
ı,ȷ
| flux | 39 |
n
| Dimension in age grid | |
m
size
| Size of newly emerged mosquitoes | 9 |
Size of mosquitoes in age group n | 12 | |
L
size
| Prediction of larva size | 10 |
a
s
p
p
| Size constant | [22] |
b
s
p
p
| Size constant | [22] |
R
p
| Potential river length in km | 23 |
Ξ
| Equally spaced riverdataset resolution indegrees | 23 |
E
R
| Earth radius inkm (6371.22) | 23 |
φ
| latitude in radians | 23 |
D
| Diffusion coefficient | 39 |
LT
| Local time | 37 |
κ
| Diurnal modification fortransport of mosquitoes | 37 |
HBI
| Human blood index | 41, 42 |
Size dependent mortality | 28 | |
β
N,m
| Natural mortality of adultmosquitoes | 32, 7, 8 |
ϖN,m(α,ζ,a) | Survival curve for adultmosquitoes | 35, 31 |
α
| Shape parameter for adult survival | 3330 |
T
mod
| Sub-function forequation 33 | 34 |
ρ
bovine/cattle
| Probability of finding cattle | 41 |
ρ
human
| Probability of findinghumans | 41 |
Differential equations for the aquatic compartment
Differential equations for adult mosquitoes
Differential equations predicting mosquito size
Model forcing
Climate and weather models
Parametrization schemes in the aquatic stages
Estimation of water temperature
Parametrization of mortality
Species-independent mortality (BLL)
Constant | Value | Equation |
---|---|---|
k
1
| 700000 | 14 |
k
2
| 8.4 | 14 |
k
3
| .126 | 14 |
k
4
| 10.8 | 14 |
k
5
| 150 | 14 |
k
6
| -.08 | 14 |
k
7
| .1 | 14 |
k
8
| -.61 | 14 |
k
9
| 33 | 14 |
c
1
| 0.1675256 | 33 |
c
2
| 0.0121402 | 33 |
c
3
| 0.1686 | 33 |
c
4
| 1.991 | 33 |
c
5
| 1.881 | 33 |
c
6
| 4.641589e 26 | 33 |
c
7
| 250 | 33 |
c
8
| 23 | 33 |
c
9
| 12 | 33 |
c
10
| 100 | 33 |
c
11
| 3 | 33 |