Background
Year | Organizations | Methodology | Key results and recommendations |
---|---|---|---|
Before 1972 | National Economic and Social Development Board | Physician to population ratio | Need more physicians to meet the target of one doctor to 5,000 population |
1979 | Coordinating Committee for Medical and Health Affairs | Service targeted approach | Thailand needs 200 more doctors per annum to meet the demand for rural health development project. |
1986 | The Thai Medical Council | Service targeted approach | Predict a shortage of 4,286 physicians by 2000 |
1986 | National Economic and Social Development Board | Trend projection | Adequate supply by the year 2000 |
1992 | Health Planning Division, the Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) | Physician to population ratio | Increase production in response to increased demand due to economic growth, need 340 more doctors per annum |
1994 | Bureau of Health Policy and Planning, the MoPH | Combination of physician to population ratio, service targeted and health demand approach | Increase production to fill in the expanded rural health services. A Collaborative Project to Increase Production of Rural Doctors was decided by the Cabinet to produce 300 more doctors per year |
1995-1996 | Bureau of Health Policy and Planning, Praboromrachanok Institute for Human Resource Development, the MoPH and Health Systems Research Institute | Combination of physician to population ratio and service targeted and health demand approach | Adequate supply by 2015 |
1996 | Thailand Development Research Institute | Health demand approach | Adequate supply by 2020 |
1996 | Bureau of Policy and Strategy, the MoPH | Cohort analysis, annual loss rate method and modified physician to population ratio | The supply of physicians by the year 2020 will be 44,028 (using high-loss scenario) to 47,519 (using low-loss scenario) |
2001 | The 7th National Conference on Medical Education | Health demand approach and physician to population ratio | Increase production to reach an optimal ratio of one physician to 1,500 population by 2021 |
2004 | Bureau of Policy and Strategy, the MoPH | Physician to population ratio | Increase production to reach an optimal ratio of one physician to 1,800 population; 6,000 additional more physicians should be produced in 2006 |
Material and method
Flow of future licensed physicians
Graduates who pass the licensing examination
Stock of existing physicians and annual loss rate
Number of physicians | 2010 | 2011 |
---|---|---|
a) Age 20-30 | 9,865 | 10,234 |
b) Age 31-40 | 10,553 | 11,292 |
c) Age 41-50 | 7,386 | 7,620 |
d) Age 51-60 | 4,959 | 5,202 |
e) Age 61-70 | 2,347 | 2,543 |
f) Age more than 70 | 2,178 | 2,280 |
g) Unknown age | 108 | 98 |
Total contactable physicians | 37,396 | 39,269 |
Estimated total active physiciansa
| 33,937 | 35,620 |
Total registered physicians at the Council | 41,015 | 42,890 |
Proportion of active physicians to total registered physicians | 83% | 83% |
Year | Total registered numbers | Total active physicians (83% of registered number) | Total physicians in clinical practice (92% total active physiciansa) |
---|---|---|---|
2000 | 26,226 | 21,768 | 19,972 |
2001 | 27,498 | 22,823 | 20,940 |
2002 | 28,824 | 23,924 | 21,950 |
2003 | 30,300 | 25,149 | 23,074 |
2004 | 31,730 | 26,336 | 24,163 |
2005 | 33,280 | 27,622 | 25,344 |
2006 | 34,820 | 28,901 | 26,516 |
2007 | 36,392 | 30,205 | 27,713 |
2008 | 37,841 | 31,408 | 28,817 |
2009 | 39,204 | 32,539 | 29,855 |
2010 | 41,015 | 34,042 | 31,234 |
2011 | 42,890 | 35,599 | 32,662 |
Fine-tuning the annual loss rate
Results
Flow of future licensed physicians
Medical school | Years of admission | Total admissions | Total graduates who passed the National Licensing Exam | Years of graduation | Rates of graduates who passed the National Licensing Exam |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vajira (VJ) | 2001-2004 | 161 | 160 | 2007-2010 | 99.4 |
Khon Kaen (KK) | 2001-2004 | 599 | 589 | 2007-2010 | 98.3 |
Chiang Mai (CMU) | 2001-2004 | 664 | 655 | 2007-2010 | 98.6 |
Thammasat (TU) | 2001-2004 | 348 | 330 | 2007-2010 | 94.8 |
Princess of Naradhiwas (PNU) | 2007-2011 | 88 | - | 2013-2017 | - |
Naresuan (NSU) | 2003-2004 | 292 | 279 | 2009-2010 | 95.5 |
Burapha (BU) | 2007-2010 | 144 | - | 2013-2016 | - |
Chulalongkorn (CU) | 2001-2004 | 869 | 846 | 2007-2010 | 97.4 |
Phayao (PU) | 2011 | 15 | - | 2017 | - |
Phramongkutklao (PMK) | 2001-2004 | 192 | 174 | 2007-2010 | 90.6 |
Mahasarakham (MSU) | 2007-2010 | 249 | - | 2013-2016 | - |
Ramathibodi (RA) | 2000-2004 | 505 | 494 | 2006-2010 | 97.8 |
Walailak (WA) | 2008-2010 | 143 | - | 2014-2016 | - |
Srinakharinwirot (SWU) | 2000-2003 | 390 | 376 | 2006-2009 | 96.4 |
Siriraj (SI) | 2000-2003 | 798 | 791 | 2006-2009 | 99.1 |
Prince of Songkla (PSU) | 2001-2003 | 583 | 553 | 2007-2009 | 94.9 |
Suranaree University of Technology (SUT) | 2006-2010 | 240 | - | 2012-2016 | - |
Ubonratchathani (UBU) | 2006-2010 | 134 | - | 2012-2016 | - |
Rangsit (RSU)a
| 2000-2004 | 456 | 445 | 2006-2010 | 97.6 |
Total
| 5,857 | 5,692 | 97.2 |
Medical school | Graduation percentage | Graduates per year | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VJ | 99.4% | Admissions | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 |
Graduates gaining licence | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | ||
KK | 98.3% | Admissions | 247 | 285 | 281 | 275 | 283 | 288 | 288 | 288 | 288 | 288 | 288 | 288 | 288 | 288 | 288 | 288 | 288 | 288 | 288 |
Graduates gaining licence | 243 | 280 | 276 | 270 | 278 | 283 | 283 | 283 | 283 | 283 | 283 | 283 | 283 | 283 | 283 | 283 | 283 | 283 | 283 | ||
CMU | 98.6% | Admissions | 188 | 188 | 232 | 251 | 249 | 250 | 250 | 250 | 250 | 250 | 250 | 250 | 250 | 250 | 250 | 250 | 250 | 250 | 250 |
Graduates gaining licence | 185 | 185 | 229 | 248 | 246 | 247 | 247 | 247 | 247 | 247 | 247 | 247 | 247 | 247 | 247 | 247 | 247 | 247 | 247 | ||
TU | 94.8% | Admissions | 134 | 131 | 156 | 161 | 187 | 177 | 177 | 177 | 177 | 177 | 177 | 177 | 177 | 177 | 177 | 177 | 177 | 177 | 177 |
Graduates gaining licence | 127 | 124 | 148 | 153 | 177 | 168 | 168 | 168 | 168 | 168 | 168 | 168 | 168 | 168 | 168 | 168 | 168 | 168 | 168 | ||
PNU | 97.2% | Admissions | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 |
Graduates gaining licence | 0 | 0 | 16 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | ||
NSU | 95.5% | Admissions | 168 | 128 | 151 | 136 | 172 | 169 | 165 | 165 | 165 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 |
Graduates gaining licence | 161 | 122 | 144 | 130 | 164 | 161 | 158 | 158 | 158 | 172 | 172 | 172 | 172 | 172 | 172 | 172 | 172 | 172 | 172 | ||
BU | 97.2% | Admissions | 0 | 0 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 |
Graduates gaining licence | 0 | 0 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | ||
CU | 97.4% | Admissions | 248 | 278 | 273 | 291 | 302 | 313 | 313 | 313 | 313 | 313 | 313 | 313 | 313 | 313 | 313 | 313 | 313 | 313 | 313 |
Graduates gaining licence | 241 | 271 | 266 | 283 | 294 | 305 | 305 | 305 | 305 | 305 | 305 | 305 | 305 | 305 | 305 | 305 | 305 | 305 | 305 | ||
PU | 97.2% | Admissions | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
Graduates gaining licence | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | ||
PMK | 90.6% | Admissions | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Graduates gaining licence | 91 | 91 | 91 | 91 | 91 | 91 | 91 | 91 | 91 | 91 | 91 | 91 | 91 | 91 | 91 | 91 | 91 | 91 | 91 | ||
MSU | 97.2% | Admissions | 0 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Graduates gaining licence | 0 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 | ||
RA | 97.8% | Admissions | 128 | 131 | 158 | 160 | 161 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 |
Graduates gaining licence | 125 | 128 | 155 | 157 | 157 | 176 | 176 | 176 | 176 | 176 | 176 | 176 | 176 | 176 | 176 | 176 | 176 | 176 | 176 | ||
WU | 97.2% | Admissions | 0 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 47 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 |
Graduates gaining licence | 0 | 0 | 0 | 47 | 46 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 58 | 58 | 58 | 58 | 58 | 58 | ||
SWU | 96.4% | Admissions | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 150 | 165 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 |
Graduates gaining licence | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 145 | 159 | 174 | 174 | 174 | 174 | 174 | 174 | 174 | 174 | 174 | 174 | 174 | 174 | ||
SI | 99.1% | Admissions | 242 | 232 | 233 | 247 | 291 | 292 | 292 | 292 | 292 | 292 | 292 | 292 | 292 | 292 | 292 | 292 | 292 | 292 | 292 |
Graduates gaining licence | 240 | 230 | 231 | 245 | 288 | 289 | 289 | 289 | 289 | 289 | 289 | 289 | 289 | 289 | 289 | 289 | 289 | 289 | 289 | ||
PSU | 94.9% | Admissions | 175 | 185 | 188 | 183 | 195 | 200 | 200 | 200 | 200 | 200 | 200 | 200 | 200 | 200 | 200 | 200 | 200 | 200 | 200 |
Graduates gaining licence | 166 | 175 | 178 | 174 | 185 | 190 | 190 | 190 | 190 | 190 | 190 | 190 | 190 | 190 | 190 | 190 | 190 | 190 | 190 | ||
SUT | 97.2% | Admissions | 0 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 49 | 48 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 |
Graduates gaining licence | 0 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 48 | 47 | 58 | 58 | 58 | 78 | 78 | 78 | 78 | 78 | 78 | 78 | 78 | 78 | 78 | ||
UBU | 97.2% | Admissions | 0 | 50 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Graduates gaining licence | 0 | 49 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 | ||
RSU | 97.6% | Admissions | 100 | 108 | 113 | 137 | 129 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 |
Graduates gaining licence | 98 | 105 | 110 | 134 | 126 | 117 | 117 | 117 | 117 | 117 | 117 | 117 | 117 | 117 | 117 | 117 | 117 | 117 | 117 | ||
Total number of graduates gaining licences | 1872 | 2050 | 2179 | 2288 | 2412 | 2511 | 2548 | 2577 | 2577 | 2623 | 2623 | 2623 | 2623 | 2646 | 2646 | 2646 | 2646 | 2646 | 2646 | ||
Average number of foreign-trained graduates gaining licences | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | ||
Total number of graduates gaining licences
|
1887
|
2065
|
2194
|
2303
|
2427
|
2526
|
2563
|
2592
|
2592
|
2638
|
2638
|
2638
|
2638
|
2661
|
2661
|
2661
|
2661
|
2661
|
2661
|
Cohort analysis applying the 1% annual loss rate
Year | Estimated population (thousands)a
| Estimated physician supply | Physician to population ratio |
---|---|---|---|
2012 | 68,251 | 33,471 | 1: 2,039 |
2013 | 68,610 | 34,944 | 1: 1,963 |
2014 | 68,980 | 36,515 | 1: 1,889 |
2015 | 69,222 | 38,168 | 1: 1,814 |
2016
|
69,455
|
39,909
|
1: 1,740
|
2017 | 69,679 | 41,718 | 1: 1,670 |
2018 | 69,893 | 43,540 | 1: 1,605 |
2019 | 70,100 | 45,349 | 1: 1,546 |
2020
|
70,217
|
47,081
|
1: 1,491
|
2021 | 70,330 | 48,762 | 1: 1,442 |
2022 | 70,440 | 50,505 | 1: 1,395 |
2023 | 70,547 | 52,197 | 1: 1,352 |
2024 | 70,651 | 53,864 | 1: 1,312 |
2025 | 72,065 | 55,505 | 1: 1,298 |
2026 | 72,400 | 57,101 | 1: 1,268 |
2027 | 72,734 | 58,666 | 1: 1,240 |
2028 | 73,069 | 60,204 | 1: 1,214 |
2029 | 73,403 | 61,717 | 1: 1,189 |
2030 | 73,738 | 63,212 | 1: 1,167 |