Background
Methods
Study Design
Follow up
Analysis
Mortality and cancer incidence
-
t is the year on trial (t = 1, 2...8)
-
x i is the age of woman i at randomisation
-
D zx is the imputed mortality rate for cause of death z at age x
-
y ti is the fraction of the year of trial t completed at censoring or death by woman i (always = 1, except for most recent/last year on trial)
Socioeconomic status
Variation in HVE with age/region/BMI/time on trial
Results
Mortality rates
Number | Expected Mortality | Observed Mortality | SMR |
L95%CI
|
U95%CI
| |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OVERALL
|
202593
|
12247
|
4569
|
37.3%
|
36.2%
|
38.4%
|
CENTRE | ||||||
Gateshead | 17321 | 1140 | 469 | 41.1% |
37.5%
|
45.0%
|
St Barts London | 19963 | 1199 | 474 | 39.5% |
36.0%
|
43.2%
|
Liverpool | 10108 | 613 | 297 | 48.4% |
43.1%
|
54.3%
|
Nottingham | 16765 | 1091 | 430 | 39.4% |
35.8%
|
43.3%
|
Manchester | 16498 | 940 | 375 | 39.9% |
35.9%
|
44.1%
|
Derby | 14917 | 858 | 312 | 36.4% |
32.5%
|
40.7%
|
Royal Free London | 16709 | 920 | 306 | 33.3% |
29.7%
|
37.2%
|
Portsmouth | 19175 | 1341 | 490 | 36.5% |
33.4%
|
39.9%
|
Bristol | 16556 | 1108 | 342 | 30.9% |
27.7%
|
34.3%
|
Belfast | 13579 | 750 | 241 | 32.2% |
28.2%
|
36.5%
|
Cardiff | 16756 | 886 | 338 | 38.2% |
34.2%
|
42.5%
|
North Wales | 14324 | 861 | 298 | 34.6% |
30.8%
|
38.8%
|
Middleborough | 9922 | 541 | 197 | 36.4% |
31.5%
|
41.9%
|
AGE GROUP | ||||||
50-54 | 39392 | 882 | 417 | 47.3% |
42.8%
|
52.0%
|
55-59 | 55592 | 1977 | 825 | 41.7% |
38.9%
|
44.7%
|
60-64 | 47073 | 2658 | 948 | 35.7% |
33.4%
|
38.0%
|
65-69 | 38568 | 3530 | 1259 | 35.7% |
33.7%
|
37.7%
|
70-74 | 21967 | 3200 | 1120 | 35.0% |
33.0%
|
37.1%
|
BMI SCORE | ||||||
Underweight (up to 18.5) | 2548 | 157 | 111 | 70.6% |
58.1%
|
85.0%
|
Normal (18.5-25) | 82888 | 4903 | 1701 | 34.7% |
33.1%
|
36.4%
|
Overweight (25-30) | 74284 | 4640 | 1586 | 34.2% |
32.5%
|
35.9%
|
Obese (over 30) | 41903 | 2486 | 1113 | 44.8% |
42.2%
|
47.5%
|
YEAR IN TRIAL | (women years) | |||||
1st
| 202501 | 1732 | 320 | 18.5% |
16.5%
|
20.6%
|
2nd
| 202028 | 1914 | 660 | 34.5% |
31.9%
|
37.2%
|
3rd
| 201314 | 2111 | 800 | 37.9% |
35.3%
|
40.6%
|
4th
| 197029 | 2290 | 903 | 39.4% |
36.9%
|
42.1%
|
5th
| 156319 | 1955 | 841 | 43.0% |
40.2%
|
46.0%
|
6th
| 106119 | 1393 | 631 | 45.3% |
41.8%
|
49.0%
|
7th
| 49590 | 719 | 349 | 48.6% |
43.6%
|
53.9%
|
8th
| 8136 | 133 | 65 | 49.0% |
37.9%
|
62.5%
|
MORTALITY CAUSE | ICD-10 Code | Expected mortality | Observed Mortality | SMR |
L95%CI
|
U95%CI
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cancers Overall | C00:C99 excl. C56, C57.0, C44 | 4419 | 2469 | 55.9% |
53.7%
|
58.1%
|
Lung Cancer | C33:C34 | 1020 | 499 | 48.9% |
44.7%
|
53.4%
|
Breast Cancer | C50 | 813 | 349 | 42.9% |
38.6%
|
47.7%
|
Colorectal Cancer | C18:C21 | 415 | 218 | 52.6% |
45.8%
|
60.1%
|
Pancreatic Cancer | C25 | 244 | 195 | 79.8% |
69.0%
|
91.8%
|
Oesophagus Cancer | C15 | 111 | 85 | 76.4% |
61.0%
|
94.5%
|
Stomach Cancer | C16 | 85 | 64 | 75.1% |
57.8%
|
95.9%
|
N-H Lymphoma | C82:C85, C96 | 194 | 88 | 45.4% |
36.4%
|
55.9%
|
Leukaemia | C91:C95 | 107 | 49 | 45.9% |
33.9%
|
60.6%
|
Uterus Cancer | C54:C55 | 120 | 63 | 52.3% |
40.2%
|
66.9%
|
Bladder Cancer | C67 | 68 | 32 | 46.7% |
32.0%
|
66.0%
|
Mental Behaviours Deaths | F- | 127 | 9 | 7.1% |
3.2%
|
13.4%
|
Nervous System Deaths | G- | 344 | 92 | 26.8% |
21.6%
|
32.8%
|
Circulatory Deaths | I- | 3208 | 999 | 31.1% |
29.2%
|
33.1%
|
Respiratory Deaths | J- | 1179 | 261 | 22.1% |
19.5%
|
25.0%
|
Digestive Deaths | K- | 688 | 187 | 27.2% |
23.4%
|
31.4%
|
Year of Study | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Overall |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Women years
|
188926
|
188467
|
187776
|
183826
|
146094
|
99763
|
46820
|
8057
|
1049731
|
Overall
|
18.5%
|
34.5%
|
37.9%
|
39.4%
|
43.0%
|
45.3%
|
48.6%
|
49.0%
|
37.3%
|
Cancers Overall |
19.7%
|
49.7%
|
61.3%
|
59.9%
|
70.4%
|
74.7%
|
64.8%
|
55.8%
|
55.9%
|
Lung Cancer |
23.7%
|
37.7%
|
62.4%
|
51.9%
|
63.9%
|
48.3%
|
61.9%
|
18.9%
|
48.9%
|
Breast Cancer |
5.3%
|
39.2%
|
37.6%
|
48.4%
|
67.4%
|
72.8%
|
43.8%
| 40.4% |
42.9%
|
Colorectal Cancer |
18.4%
|
57.9%
|
59.9%
|
54.4%
|
59.8%
| 75.5% |
33.6%
| 44.1% |
52.6%
|
Pancreatic Cancer | 27.5% | 78.5% | 98.3% |
57.4%
| 89.6% | 138.2% | 96.6% | 83.4% |
79.8%
|
Oesophagus Cancer | 14.7% | 64.0% | 84.2% | 91.1% | 85.2% | 151.7% | 108.2% | 124.1% |
76.4%
|
Stomach Cancer | 62.9% | 117.8% | 68.9% | 73.9% | 85.4% |
19.8%
| 93.3% | 94.6% |
75.1%
|
N-H Lymphoma |
10.5%
|
35.3%
|
41.4%
|
44.6%
|
53.2%
| 70.4% | 111.3% | 49.5% |
45.4%
|
Leukaemia |
6.4%
|
46.8%
|
43.0%
|
30.2%
|
48.0%
| 109.8% | 49.9% | 176.6% |
45.9%
|
Uterus Cancer |
11.0%
| 66.2% |
42.6%
| 67.5% | 75.7% | 68.8% |
0.0%
| 83.1% |
52.3%
|
Bladder Cancer |
10.9%
|
19.3%
| 60.1% | 61.7% | 53.6% | 49.8% | 70.5% | 118.6% |
46.7%
|
Mental Behaviours Deaths |
6.7%
|
0.0%
|
4.8%
|
4.1%
|
4.5%
|
6.2%
|
22.4%
| 107.0% |
7.1%
|
Nervous System Deaths |
6.1%
|
22.2%
|
20.2%
|
31.2%
|
27.5%
|
43.8%
| 59.9% | 25.9% |
26.8%
|
Circulatory Deaths |
25.7%
|
31.7%
|
31.0%
|
31.9%
|
32.8%
|
26.7%
|
41.2%
|
38.6%
|
31.1%
|
Respiratory Deaths |
9.1%
|
16.6%
|
18.6%
|
23.7%
|
25.1%
|
29.7%
|
35.7%
| 65.9% |
22.1%
|
Digestive Deaths |
15.7%
|
29.9%
|
22.6%
|
27.5%
|
24.3%
|
36.9%
|
41.5%
| 82.2% |
27.2%
|
Socioeconomic status comparison
Mortality by deprivation | Number | Expected Mortality | Observed Mortality | SMR |
L95%CI
|
U95%CI
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IMD SCORE (deprivation index) | ||||||
1st quintile (up to 7.8) | 31231 | 1985 | 604 | 30.4% |
28.0%
|
33.0%
|
2nd quintile (7.8-12.3) | 31203 | 1912 | 591 | 30.9% |
28.5%
|
33.5%
|
3rd quintile (12.3-18.5) | 31254 | 1884 | 721 | 38.3% |
35.5%
|
41.2%
|
4th quintile (18.5-30.2) | 31326 | 1901 | 707 | 37.2% |
34.5%
|
40.0%
|
5th quintile (over 30.2) | 31263 | 1959 | 1024 | 52.3% |
49.1%
|
55.6%
|
Cancer incidence by deprivation
|
Number
|
Expected Incidence
|
Observed Incidence
|
SIR
|
L95%CI
|
U95%CI
|
IMD SCORE (deprivation index) | ||||||
1st quintile (up to 7.8) | 31231 | 736 | 593 | 80.6% |
74.2%
|
87.4%
|
2nd quintile (7.8-12.3) | 31203 | 715 | 590 | 82.6% |
76.0%
|
89.5%
|
3rd quintile (12.3-18.5) | 31254 | 705 | 601 | 85.2% |
78.5%
|
92.3%
|
4th quintile (18.5-30.2) | 31326 | 725 | 589 | 81.3% |
74.9%
|
88.1%
|
5th quintile (over 30.2) | 31263 | 786 | 715 | 91.0% |
84.4%
|
97.9%
|
Cancer Incidence
INCIDENCE | ICD-10 Code | Expected incidence | Observed Incidence | SIR |
L95%CI
|
U95%CI
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cancers Overall | C00:C99 excl. C56, C57.0, C44 | 4610 | 4131 | 88.1% |
85.4%
|
90.9%
|
Lung Cancer | C33:C34 | 582 | 328 | 56.2% |
50.2%
|
62.6%
|
Breast Cancer | C50 | 1715 | 1748 | 99.8% |
95.1%
|
104.6%
|
Colorectal Cancer | C18:C21 | 511 | 471 | 91.1% |
83.1%
|
99.8%
|
Pancreatic Cancer | C25 | 122 | 84 | 68.1% |
54.3%
|
84.4%
|
Oesophagus Cancer | C15 | 75 | 54 | 71.6% |
53.8%
|
93.4%
|
Stomach Cancer | C16 | 65 | 56 | 85.0% |
64.0%
|
110.6%
|
N-H Lymphoma | C82:C85, C96 | 168 | 175 | 103.6% |
88.8%
|
120.2%
|
Leukaemia | C91:C95 | 75 | 58 | 77.7% |
59.0%
|
100.4%
|
Uterus Cancer | C54:C55 | 318 | 293 | 91.1% |
80.9%
|
102.2%
|
Bladder Cancer | C67 | 77 | 64 | 79.5% |
60.8%
|
102.1%
|
Year of Study | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Overall |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Women years
|
198967
|
158235
|
107587
|
50362
|
8296
|
523447
|
Cancers Overall (excl. C56, C57.0, C44) |
84.6%
|
90.8%
|
88.5%
| 91.7% | 91.4% |
88.1%
|
Lung Cancer |
45.0%
|
61.5%
|
65.9%
|
64.1%
|
27.1%
|
56.2%
|
Breast Cancer | 100.0% | 106.1% | 90.5% | 99.9% | 95.3% |
99.8%
|
Colorectal Cancer | 87.2% | 96.7% | 84.5% | 98.4% | 112.0% |
91.1%
|
Pancreatic Cancer |
57.4%
|
65.4%
| 88.4% | 83.5% | 0.0% |
68.1%
|
Oesophagus Cancer | 73.8% | 61.6% | 99.8% | 37.1% | 68.8% |
71.6%
|
Stomach Cancer | 78.5% | 102.6% | 72.2% | 70.2% | 152.7% |
85.0%
|
N-H Lymphoma | 91.5% | 92.7% | 137.8% | 102.7% | 131.1% |
103.6%
|
Leukaemia |
44.6%
| 75.5% | 101.0% | 138.1% | 140.0% |
77.7%
|
Uterus Cancer | 96.3% | 92.7% | 94.1% |
58.7%
| 109.2% |
91.1%
|
Bladder Cancer |
59.0%
| 90.9% | 103.2% | 82.6% | 0.0% |
79.5%
|