Background
Materials and methods
Participants
Characteristics of the participantsa | First year (n = 122) | Second year (n = 99) | Third year (n = 61) |
---|---|---|---|
Demographic characteristics | |||
Age, years, median (IQR) | 75.50 (71.00–80.00) | 76.00 (72.00–80.00) | 76.00 (71.00–80.00) |
Sex (male:female) | 54:68 | 44:55 | 29:32 |
Education duration, median (IQR) | 12.00 (9.00–12.00) | 12.00 (9.00–12.00) | 12.00 (9.00–12.00) |
BMI, kg/m2, median (IQR) | 23.19 (21.28–24.93) | 23.46 (21.66–25.37) | 23.60 (22.00–25.32) |
ApoE4 (negative:positive)b | 105:17 | 85:14 | 49:12 |
Ever drinking (none:sometimes:everyday) | 78:23:21 | 62:20:17 | 40:14:7 |
Ever smoking (none:sometimes:everyday) | 117:0:5 | 95:1:3 | 60:0:1 |
Wearable sensor data | |||
Steps/day, median (IQR) | 4425.21 (2839.88–6364.50) | 4168.86 (2552.55–5886.65) | 4008.35 (2542.67–5420.50) |
Light physical activity, min/day, median (IQR) | 16.46 (10.55–28.64) | 18.79 (10.07–29.06) | 16.05 (8.71–23.21) |
Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity, min/day, median (IQR) | 21.46 (11.16–35.13) | 17.82 (10.76–29.95) | 15.30 (10.46–29.83) |
Sedentary behavior, min/day, median (IQR) | 788.35 (739.65–830.27) | 779.83 (724.03–839.19) | 776.26 (713.50–842.21) |
TST, min/day, median (IQR) | 400.12 (355.96–445.53) | 401.85 (357.71–455.97) | 412.75 (371.41–474.67) |
Sleep efficiency/day, median (IQR) | 0.96 (0.93–0.97) | 0.96 (0.94–0.98) | 0.96 (0.94–0.97) |
Awakening time count, times/day, median (IQR) | 0.47 (0.29–0.72) | 0.43 (0.29–0.68) | 0.47 (0.25–0.68) |
Naptime, min/day, median (IQR) | 35.50 (19.23–59.73) | 37.77 (23.43–63.95) | 47.27 (25.71–68.78) |
Nap efficiency/day, median (IQR) | 0.99 (0.93–1.00) | 0.98 (0.95–1.00) | 0.96 (0.94–1.00) |
Awakening time count during nap, times/day, median (IQR) | 0.03 (0.00–0.10) | 0.03 (0.00–0.08) | 0.04 (0.02–0.08) |
Heart rate, beats/min, median (IQR) | 63.48 (59.63–68.79) | 63.05 (59.00–69.20) | 62.83 (58.97–69.88) |
Conversation time, min/day, median (IQR) | 213.79 (173.46–270.91) | 221.59 (183.01–279.64) | 221.72 (176.75–271.07) |
ActiveScale, times/day, median (IQR) | 4.63 (3.18–6.70) | 4.59 (2.87–6.80) | 3.84 (2.46–5.91) |
Others | |||
MoCA-J score, median (IQR) | 22.00 (19.00–25.00) | 23.00 (20.00–26.00) | 23.00 (19.00–25.00) |
Mean SUVR on PiB, median (IQR) | 0.92 (0.83–1.32) | 0.90 (0.83–1.37) | 0.90 (0.82–1.49) |
PiB-PET (negative:positive) | 94:28 | 75:24 | 45:16 |
Demographic characteristics of the participants
Living environment and health behaviors
Characteristics of patientsa | Amyloid negative (n = 214) | Amyloid positive (n = 68) | P-valueb |
---|---|---|---|
Demographic characteristics (17 variables) | |||
Age, years, median (IQR) | 75.00 (70.00–79.00) | 79.00 (76.00–82.25) | < 0.01 |
Sex (male:female) | 105:109 | 22:46 | 0.02 |
Education duration, median (IQR) | 12.00 (9.00–12.00) | 12.00 (12.00–12.00) | 0.08 |
BMI, kg/m2, median (IQR) | 23.59 (21.53–25.32) | 22.91 (20.73–24.79) | 0.22 |
Ever drinking (none:sometimes:everyday) | 129:47:38 | 51:10:7 | 0.03 |
Ever smoking (none:sometimes:everyday) | 205:0:9 | 67:1:0 | 0.28 |
Hypertension (none:previous treatment:current treatment) | 95:7:112 | 19:5:44 | 0.04 |
Diabetes mellitus (none:previous treatment:current treatment) | 164:4:46 | 55:4:9 | 0.37 |
Hyperlipidemia (none:previous treatment:current treatment) | 152:7:55 | 42:7:19 | 0.25 |
Stroke (none:previous treatment:current treatment) | 206:4:4 | 57:9:2 | < 0.01 |
Heart disease (none:previous treatment:current treatment) | 186:9:19 | 47:9:12 | < 0.01 |
Liver dysfunction (none:previous treatment:current treatment) | 207:3:4 | 66:1:1 | 0.89 |
Renal dysfunction (none:previous treatment:current treatment) | 211:3:0 | 68:0:0 | 0.33 |
Thyroid disease (none:previous treatment:current treatment) | 204:5:5 | 55:9:4 | < 0.01 |
Malignant tumor (none:previous treatment:current treatment) | 198:14:2 | 63:5:0 | 0.96 |
Medicine allergies (no:yes) | 206:8 | 66:2 | 0.76 |
Food allergies (no:yes) | 203:11 | 63:5 | 0.49 |
Wearable sensor data (13 variables) | |||
Steps/day, median (IQR) | 4492.77 (2923.02–6207.15) | 2944.68 (1579.57–5448.91) | < 0.01 |
Light physical activity, min/day, median (IQR) | 17.24 (10.70–27.88) | 14.02 (7.83–30.86) | 0.79 |
Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity, min/day, median (IQR) | 20.23 (12.38–33.69) | 10.77 (5.07–27.26) | < 0.01 |
Sedentary behavior, min/day, median (IQR) | 779.39 (717.21–830.35) | 808.79 (754.28–846.99) | < 0.01 |
TST, min/day, median (IQR) | 405.32 (362.22–457.00) | 389.47 (356.20–434.32) | 0.03 |
Sleep efficiency/day, median (IQR) | 0.96 (0.94–0.98) | 0.95 (0.94–0.97) | 0.09 |
Awakening time count, times/day, median (IQR) | 0.46 (0.26–0.68) | 0.45 (0.31–0.73) | 0.34 |
Naptime, min/day, median (IQR) | 40.01 (22.22–68.85) | 36.32 (23.97–53.72) | 0.55 |
Nap efficiency/day, median (IQR) | 0.98 (0.94–1.00) | 0.97 (0.94–1.00) | 0.29 |
Awakening time count during nap, times/day, median (IQR) | 0.03 (0.00–0.09) | 0.03 (0.00–0.08) | 0.44 |
Heart rate, beats/min, median (IQR) | 64.06 (59.66–69.77) | 61.12 (56.18–65.70) | < 0.01 |
Conversation time, min/day, median (IQR) | 212.68 (173.30–264.98) | 258.27 (202.89–304.63) | < 0.01 |
ActiveScale, times/day, median (IQR) | 4.88 (3.34–6.77) | 3.00 (1.68–5.81) | < 0.01 |
Health and life environment questionnaire data (23 variables) | |||
Household size, number of people, median (IQR) | 2.00 (2.00–3.00) | 2.00 (2.00–3.00) | 0.57 |
Living with spouse (no:yes) | 58:156 | 17:49 | 0.83 |
Living with children (no:yes) | 133:81 | 46:20 | 0.27 |
Living with grandchildren (no:yes) | 179:35 | 55:11 | 0.95 |
Living with parents (no:yes) | 206:8 | 64:2 | 0.79 |
Living with others (no:yes) | 210:4 | 65:1 | 0.85 |
Transportation mode (bicycle:driving a car or motorcycle:train or bus:family/friends’ cars or taxis) | 11:142:12:44 | 0:25:5:35 | < 0.01 |
Accompanying person (relative:friend:others) | 162:2:49 | 63:0:1 | < 0.01 |
Number of days working in a week, median (IQR) | 0.00 (0.00–0.00) | 0.00 (0.00–0.00) | 0.08 |
Primary hobby (none:1–2 days a month:1–2 days a week:3–4 days a week:5 days or more a week) | 65:31:34:22:40 | 30:4:9:3:13 | 0.14 |
Secondary hobby (none:1–2 days a month:1–2 days a week:3–4 days a week:5 days or more a week) | 53:57:30:24:13 | 20:16:13:5:7 | 0.98 |
Gardening engagement (no:yes) | 158:56 | 55:13 | 0.24 |
Walking difficulty (none:walking pain:cane) | 154:25:15 | 42:7:9 | 0.20 |
Number of outings (none:1–2 days a week:3–4 days a week:5 days or more a week) | 6:40:71:90 | 3:20:21:21 | 0.04 |
Exercise frequency, days, median (IQR) | 4.00 (1.50–7.00) | 3.00 (2.00–7.00) | 0.83 |
Communication frequency (none:1–2 days a month:1–2 days a week:3–4 days a week:5 days or more a week) | 37:85:44:27:15 | 6:11:24:13:11 | < 0.01 |
Pet ownership (no:yes) | 145:64 | 51:15 | 0.22 |
Lesson or class frequency (none:1–2 days a month:1–2 days a week:3–4 days a week:5 days or more a week) | 158:35:7:4:2 | 47:4:10:2:1 | 0.33 |
Caring about appearance (not at all:not often:very often:most of the time) | 5:61:70:74 | 1:15:26:24 | 0.47 |
Denture (none:partial:yes) | 69:109:33 | 19:31:14 | 0.37 |
Time spent on watching TV (none: < 3 h per day: > 3 h per day: > 6 h per day) | 7:73:104:29 | 1:22:31:12 | 0.44 |
Reading a newspaper (none:1–2 days a month:1–2 days a week:3–4 days a week:5 days or more a week) | 26:9:11:14:150 | 3:3:2:4:54 | 0.07 |
Number of days participating in community activity, median (IQR) | 0.00 (0.00–1.00) | 0.00 (0.00–1.00) | 0.85 |
Cognitive test | |||
MoCA-J score, median (IQR) | 23.00 (20.00–25.75) | 20.00 (18.00–22.00) | < 0.01 |
Wearable sensor data
Cognitive function
Apolipoprotein E phenotype
Positron emission tomography scans
Statistical analysis
Model construction and evaluation
Results
Clinical and demographic characteristics of the participants
Model prediction accuracy
Model type | ROC AUC | Precisionh | Recallh | F1 Scoreh | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Model 0a | kernel SVM | 0.72 ± 0.03 | 0.41 ± 0.03 | 0.63 ± 0.08 | 0.48 ± 0.04 |
Elastic Net | 0.75 ± 0.02 | 0.42 ± 0.02 | 0.71 ± 0.06 | 0.52 ± 0.04 | |
L2 Logistic Regression | 0.74 ± 0.02 | 0.43 ± 0.02 | 0.69 ± 0.06 | 0.51 ± 0.04 | |
Model 1b | kernel SVM | 0.61 ± 0.06 | 0.30 ± 0.04 | 0.48 ± 0.08 | 0.37 ± 0.04 |
Elastic Net | 0.70 ± 0.02 | 0.39 ± 0.02 | 0.62 ± 0.04 | 0.47 ± 0.02 | |
logistic regression | 0.70 ± 0.02 | 0.41 ± 0.02 | 0.60 ± 0.05 | 0.47 ± 0.04 | |
Model 2c | kernel SVM | 0.76 ± 0.02 | 0.45 ± 0.01 | 0.66 ± 0.05 | 0.52 ± 0.02 |
Elastic Net | 0.77 ± 0.02 | 0.44 ± 0.03 | 0.71 ± 0.06 | 0.51 ± 0.04 | |
logistic regression | 0.78 ± 0.02 | 0.45 ± 0.03 | 0.67 ± 0.06 | 0.51 ± 0.03 | |
Model 3d | kernel SVM | 0.79 ± 0.01 | 0.49 ± 0.04 | 0.69 ± 0.05 | 0.56 ± 0.03 |
Elastic Net | 0.79 ± 0.01 | 0.51 ± 0.05 | 0.63 ± 0.06 | 0.55 ± 0.05 | |
logistic regression | 0.79 ± 0.01 | 0.51 ± 0.03 | 0.58 ± 0.05 | 0.51 ± 0.04 | |
Model 4e | kernel SVM | 0.83 ± 0.01 | 0.56 ± 0.03 | 0.67 ± 0.04 | 0.60 ± 0.03 |
Elastic Net | 0.83 ± 0.02 | 0.56 ± 0.03 | 0.64 ± 0.05 | 0.58 ± 0.03 | |
logistic regression | 0.82 ± 0.02 | 0.55 ± 0.02 | 0.61 ± 0.04 | 0.55 ± 0.02 | |
Model 5f | kernel SVM | 0.79 ± 0.01 | 0.49 ± 0.03 | 0.67 ± 0.03 | 0.55 ± 0.03 |
Elastic Net | 0.79 ± 0.01 | 0.51 ± 0.04 | 0.64 ± 0.04 | 0.54 ± 0.04 | |
logistic regression | 0.79 ± 0.01 | 0.52 ± 0.04 | 0.60 ± 0.04 | 0.54 ± 0.03 | |
Model 6g | kernel SVM | 0.80 ± 0.01 | 0.51 ± 0.03 | 0.67 ± 0.04 | 0.56 ± 0.02 |
Elastic Net | 0.79 ± 0.02 | 0.53 ± 0.04 | 0.62 ± 0.04 | 0.53 ± 0.03 | |
logistic regression | 0.79 ± 0.01 | 0.53 ± 0.04 | 0.58 ± 0.04 | 0.53 ± 0.03 |