01.12.2017 | Research article | Ausgabe 1/2017 Open Access

Receiver operating characteristic analysis of prediction for gastric cancer development using serum pepsinogen and Helicobacter pylori antibody tests
- Zeitschrift:
- BMC Cancer > Ausgabe 1/2017
Background
Methods
Study population
Laboratory data
Statistical analysis
Results
Target population
ROC analysis
Outcome (Cut-off value)
|
ROC area (95% CI)
|
|||
---|---|---|---|---|
PG I/II
|
PG I
|
PG II
|
HP
|
|
H. pylori infection
|
0.820 ± 0.023
|
0.455 ± 0.022
|
0.186 ± 0.016
|
-
|
(HP antibody = 10.0)
|
(0.774–0.865)
|
(0.411–0.499)
|
(0.153–0.217)
|
|
H. pylori infection
|
0.849 ± 0.024
|
0.478 ± 0.025
|
0.181 ± 0.018
|
-
|
(HP antibody = 5.0)
|
(0.801–0.896)
|
(0.429–0.527)
|
(0.146–0.216)
|
|
Gastric cancer
|
0.649 ± 0.017
|
0.561 ± 0.011
|
0.434 ± 0.018
|
0.574 ± 0.018
|
(0.615–0.683)
|
(0.526–0.597)
|
(0.400–0.469)
|
(0.538–0.610)
|
PG I/II
|
PG I
|
PG II
|
HP
|
|
---|---|---|---|---|
2.5
|
ROC area
|
0.627 ± 0.017
|
0.619 ± 0.017
|
0.605 ± 0.018
|
(95% CI)
|
(0.594–0.661)
|
(0.585–0.652)
|
(0.571–0.639)
|
|
Optimal cut-off point
|
65/60
|
50
|
5
|
|
Optimal sensitivity
|
70.2/69.8
|
71.2
|
70.8
|
|
Optimal specificity
|
53.7/54.1
|
52.5
|
54.3
|
|
3.0
|
ROC area
|
0.638 ± 0.017
|
0.618 ± 0.017
|
0.594 ± 0.018
|
(95% CI)
|
(0.604–0.672)
|
(0.604–0.672)
|
(0.558–0.629)
|
|
Optimal cut-off point
|
65
|
50
|
5.0/6.0
|
|
Optimal sensitivity
|
81.9
|
83.9
|
82.9/82.7
|
|
Optimal specificity
|
42.1
|
39.8
|
42.5/42.7
|
|
3.5
|
ROC area
|
0.631 ± 0.018
|
0.618 ± 0.017
|
0.584 ± 0.082
|
(95% CI)
|
(0.597–0.665)
|
(0.604–0.672)
|
(0.548–0.620)
|
|
Optimal cut-off point
|
65
|
50
|
5.0/6.0
|
|
Optimal sensitivity
|
88.9
|
91.0
|
89.9/89.5
|
|
Optimal specificity
|
31.6
|
29.2
|
33.8/34.2
|
HP antibody values
|
PG I/II = 3.0
|
PG I/II = 2.5
|
|||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
PGI = 70
|
PGI = 65
|
PGI = 70
|
PGI = 65
|
||
1
|
ROC area
|
0.619 ± 0.014
|
0.623 ± 0.014
|
0.623 ± 0.015
|
0.625 ± 0.015
|
(95% CI)
|
(0.591–0.646)
|
(0.595–0.650)
|
(0.594–0.653)
|
(0.596–0.655)
|
|
Sensitivity
|
99.4
|
100
|
99.8
|
99.8
|
|
Specificity
|
8.7
|
4.4
|
4.6
|
4.6
|
|
3
|
ROC area
|
0.620 ± 0.014
|
0.624 ± 0.014
|
0.630 ± 0.015
|
0.632 ± 0.015
|
(95% CI)
|
(0.591–0.648)
|
(0.596–0.652)
|
(0.600–0.660)
|
(0.602–0.662)
|
|
Sensitivity
|
99.0
|
99.2
|
98.6
|
98.6
|
|
Specificity
|
11.9
|
11.9
|
12.7
|
12.7
|
|
5
|
ROC area
|
0.619 ± 0.015
|
0.624 ± 0.014
|
0.633 ± 0.016
|
0.635 ± 0.016
|
(95% CI)
|
(0.591–0.648)
|
(0.595–0.652)
|
(0.603–0.665)
|
(0.605–0.666)
|
|
Sensitivity
|
98.4
|
98.4
|
97.8
|
97.8
|
|
Specificity
|
16.9
|
16.9
|
17.9
|
17.7
|
|
7
|
ROC area
|
0.621 ± 0.015
|
0.625 ± 0.015
|
0.634 ± 0.016
|
0.637 ± 0.016
|
(95% CI)
|
(0.593–0.650)
|
(0.597–0.654)
|
(0.604–0.664)
|
(0.606–0.667)
|
|
Sensitivity
|
97.4
|
97.4
|
96.6
|
96.6
|
|
Specificity
|
19.1
|
19.1
|
20.1
|
20.1
|
|
10
|
ROC area
|
0.622 ± 0.015
|
0.626 ± 0.015
|
0.636 ± 0.016
|
0.638 ± 0.016
|
(95% CI)
|
(0.593–0.651)
|
(0.597–0.655)
|
(0.605–0.667)
|
(0.607–0.669)
|
|
Sensitivity
|
97.2
|
97.2
|
96.4
|
96.4
|
|
Specificity
|
21.1
|
21.1
|
22.1
|
22.1
|