Background
Methods
Study design and sample
Measurement
Breast cancer based on health insurance claim data | Total | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Detected | Not detected | |||
Results of screening for breast cancer | Positive | a | b | a + b |
Negative | c | d | c + d | |
Total | a + c | b + d | N |
Data analysis
Results
2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No | % | No | % | No | % | No | % | No | % | No | % | |||
Total participants | 2,977,041 | 100.0 | 2,907,964 | 100.0 | 3,359,526 | 100.0 | 3,334,657 | 100.0 | 3,291,981 | 100.0 | 3,564,681 | 100.0 | ||
Results of screening | Negative | Subtotal | 2,469,917 | 83.0 | 2,473,581 | 85.1 | 2,874,166 | 85.6 | 2,843,801 | 85.3 | 2,817,325 | 85.6 | 3,035,615 | 85.2 |
Normal | 2,163,673 | 87.6 | 2,121,346 | 85.8 | 2,465,337 | 85.8 | 2,426,471 | 85.3 | 2,378,842 | 84.4 | 2,560,714 | 84.4 | ||
Benign lesion | 306,244 | 12.4 | 352,235 | 14.2 | 408,829 | 14.2 | 417,330 | 14.7 | 438,483 | 15.6 | 474,901 | 15.6 | ||
Positive | Subtotal | 507,124 | 17.0 | 434,383 | 14.9 | 485,360 | 14.4 | 490,856 | 14.7 | 474,656 | 14.4 | 529,066 | 14.8 | |
Suspected breast cancer | 6,249 | 1.2 | 5,384 | 1.2 | 5,588 | 1.2 | 5,253 | 1.1 | 4,762 | 1.0 | 4,649 | 0.9 | ||
Deferred | 500,875 | 98.8 | 428,999 | 98.8 | 479,772 | 98.8 | 485,603 | 98.9 | 469,894 | 99.0 | 524,417 | 99.1 | ||
Age | 40–49 | Subtotal | 1,014,401 | 34.1 | 987,795 | 34.0 | 1,069,780 | 31.8 | 1,036,136 | 31.1 | 1,023,722 | 31.1 | 1,084,874 | 30.4 |
Negative | 763,858 | 75.3 | 775,653 | 78.5 | 853,005 | 79.7 | 823,571 | 79.5 | 825,570 | 80.6 | 866,479 | 79.9 | ||
Positive | 250,543 | 24.7 | 212,142 | 21.5 | 216,775 | 20.3 | 212,565 | 20.5 | 198,152 | 19.4 | 218,395 | 20.1 | ||
50–59 | Subtotal | 941,260 | 31.6 | 922,458 | 31.7 | 1,133,029 | 33.7 | 1,098,477 | 32.9 | 1,082,582 | 32.9 | 1,146,449 | 32.2 | |
Negative | 775,482 | 82.4 | 783,436 | 84.9 | 966,230 | 85.3 | 930,045 | 84.7 | 919,229 | 84.9 | 967,212 | 84.4 | ||
Positive | 165,778 | 17.6 | 139,022 | 15.1 | 166,899 | 14.7 | 168,432 | 15.3 | 163,353 | 15.1 | 179,237 | 15.6 | ||
60–69 | Subtotal | 643,458 | 21.6 | 615,546 | 21.2 | 698,331 | 20.8 | 716,442 | 21.5 | 697,346 | 21.2 | 794,659 | 22.3 | |
Negative | 575,039 | 89.4 | 555,855 | 90.3 | 627,843 | 89.9 | 640,571 | 89.4 | 621,607 | 89.1 | 705,162 | 88.7 | ||
Positive | 68,419 | 10.6 | 59,691 | 9.7 | 70,488 | 10.1 | 75,871 | 10.6 | 75,739 | 10.9 | 89,497 | 11.3 | ||
Over 70 | Subtotal | 377,922 | 12.7 | 382,165 | 13.1 | 458,386 | 13.6 | 483,602 | 14.5 | 488,331 | 14.8 | 538,699 | 15.1 | |
Negative | 355,538 | 94.1 | 358,637 | 93.8 | 427,088 | 93.2 | 449,614 | 93.0 | 450,919 | 92.3 | 496,762 | 92.2 | ||
Positive | 22,384 | 5.9 | 23,528 | 6.2 | 31,298 | 6.8 | 33,988 | 7.0 | 37,412 | 7.7 | 41,937 | 7.8 |
2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | |||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No. of detection | % | cDR | PPV | No. of detection | % | cDR | PPV | No. of detection | % | cDR | PPV | No. of detection | % | cDR | PPV | No. of detection | % | cDR | PPV | No. of detection | % | cDR | PPV | |||
Detected breast cancer | Total | 3,759 | 100.0 | 126.3 | 741.2 | 3,953 | 100.0 | 135.9 | 910.0 | 4,696 | 100.0 | 139.8 | 967.5 | 5,324 | 100.0 | 159.7 | 1,084.6 | 5,676 | 100.0 | 172.4 | 1,195.8 | 6,493 | 100.0 | 182.1 | 1,367.9 | |
CIS | 833 | 22.2 | 28.0 | 164.3 | 872 | 22.1 | 30.0 | 200.7 | 1,049 | 22.3 | 31.2 | 216.1 | 1,248 | 23.4 | 37.4 | 254.2 | 1,272 | 22.4 | 38.6 | 268.0 | 1,509 | 23.2 | 42.3 | 317.9 | ||
Malignant N. | 2,926 | 77.8 | 98.3 | 577.0 | 3,081 | 77.9 | 106.0 | 709.3 | 3,647 | 77.7 | 108.6 | 751.4 | 4,076 | 76.6 | 122.2 | 830.4 | 4,404 | 77.6 | 133.8 | 927.8 | 4,984 | 76.8 | 139.8 | 1,050.0 | ||
Age | 40–49 | Subotal | 1,412 | 37.6 | 139.2 | 563.6 | 1,416 | 35.8 | 143.3 | 667.5 | 1,580 | 33.6 | 147.7 | 728.9 | 1,805 | 33.9 | 174.2 | 849.2 | 1,836 | 32.3 | 179.3 | 926.6 | 2,125 | 32.7 | 195.9 | 973.0 |
CIS | 353 | 25.0 | 34.8 | 140.9 | 355 | 25.1 | 35.9 | 167.3 | 393 | 24.9 | 36.7 | 181.3 | 479 | 26.5 | 46.2 | 225.3 | 448 | 24.4 | 43.8 | 226.1 | 570 | 26.8 | 52.5 | 261.0 | ||
Malignant N. | 1,059 | 75.0 | 104.4 | 422.7 | 1,061 | 74.9 | 107.4 | 500.1 | 1,187 | 75.1 | 111.0 | 547.6 | 1,326 | 73.5 | 128.0 | 623.8 | 1,388 | 75.6 | 135.6 | 700.5 | 1,555 | 73.2 | 143.3 | 712.0 | ||
50–59 | Subotal | 1,344 | 35.8 | 142.8 | 810.7 | 1,476 | 37.3 | 160.0 | 1,061.7 | 1,701 | 36.2 | 150.1 | 1,019.2 | 1,909 | 35.9 | 173.8 | 1,133.4 | 2,124 | 37.4 | 196.2 | 1,300.3 | 2,370 | 36.5 | 206.7 | 1,322.3 | |
CIS | 294 | 21.9 | 31.2 | 177.3 | 330 | 22.4 | 35.8 | 237.4 | 381 | 22.4 | 33.6 | 228.3 | 465 | 24.4 | 42.3 | 276.1 | 485 | 22.8 | 44.8 | 296.9 | 533 | 22.5 | 46.5 | 297.4 | ||
Malignant N. | 1,050 | 78.1 | 111.6 | 633.4 | 1,146 | 77.6 | 124.2 | 824.3 | 1,320 | 77.6 | 116.5 | 790.9 | 1,444. | 75.6 | 131.5 | 857.3 | 1,639 | 77.2 | 151.4 | 1,003.3 | 1,837 | 77.5 | 160.2 | 1,024.9 | ||
60–69 | Subotal | 728 | 19.4 | 113.1 | 1,064.0 | 744 | 18.8 | 120.9 | 1,246.4 | 1,003 | 21.4 | 143.6 | 1,422.9 | 1,098 | 20.6 | 153.3 | 1,447.2 | 1,091 | 19.2 | 156.5 | 1,440.5 | 1,371 | 21.1 | 172.5 | 1,531.9 | |
CIS | 142 | 19.5 | 22.1 | 207.5 | 142 | 19.1 | 23.1 | 237.9 | 212 | 21.1 | 30.4 | 300.8 | 222 | 20.2 | 31.0 | 292.6 | 223 | 20.4 | 32.0 | 294.4 | 286 | 20.9 | 36.0 | 319.6 | ||
Malignant N. | 586 | 80.5 | 91.1 | 856.5 | 602 | 80.9 | 97.8 | 1,008.5 | 791 | 78.9 | 113.3 | 1,122.2 | 876 | 79.8 | 122.3 | 1,154.6 | 868 | 79.6 | 124.5 | 1,146.0 | 1,085 | 79.1 | 136.5 | 1,212.3 | ||
70 | Subotal | 275 | 7.3 | 72.8 | 1,228.6 | 317 | 8.0 | 82.9 | 1,347.3 | 412 | 8.8 | 89.9 | 1,316.4 | 512 | 9.6 | 105.9 | 1,506.4 | 625 | 11.0 | 128.0 | 1,670.6 | 627 | 9.7 | 116.4 | 1,495.1 | |
CIS | 44 | 16.0 | 11.6 | 196.6 | 45 | 14.2 | 11.8 | 191.3 | 63 | 15.3 | 13.7 | 201.3 | 82 | 16.0 | 17.0 | 241.3 | 116 | 18.6 | 23.8 | 310.1 | 120 | 19.1 | 22.3 | 286.1 | ||
Malignant N. | 231 | 84.0 | 61.1 | 1,032.0 | 272 | 85.8 | 71.2 | 1,156.1 | 349 | 84.7 | 76.1 | 1,115.1 | 430 | 84.0 | 88.9 | 1,265.2 | 509 | 81.4 | 104.2 | 1,360.5 | 507 | 80.9 | 94.1 | 1,209.0 | ||
Results of screening | Suspected breast cancer | Subotal | 1,252 | 33.3 | – | 20,035.2 | 1,290 | 32.6 | – | 23,959.9 | 1,439 | 30.6 | – | 25,751.6 | 1,624 | 30.5 | - | 30,915.7 | 1,655 | 29.2 | - | 34,754.3 | 1,803 | 27.8 | - | 37,862.2 |
CIS | 225 | 18.0 | – | 3,600.6 | 230 | 17.8 | – | 4,271.9 | 271 | 18.8 | – | 4,849.7 | 307 | 18.9 | - | 5,844.3 | 289 | 17.5 | - | 6,068.9 | 310 | 17.2 | - | 6,509.9 | ||
Malignant N. | 1,027 | 82.0 | – | 16,434.6 | 1,060 | 82.2 | – | 19,688.0 | 1,168 | 81.2 | – | 20,901.9 | 1,317 | 81.1 | – | 25,071.4 | 1,366 | 82.5 | – | 28,685.4 | 1,493 | 82.8 | – | 31,352.4 | ||
Deferred | Subotal | 2,507 | 66.7 | – | 500.5 | 2,663 | 67.4 | – | 620.7 | 3,257 | 69.4 | – | 678.9 | 3,700 | 69.5 | – | 761.9 | 4,021 | 70.8 | – | 855.7 | 4,690 | 72.2 | – | 998.1 | |
CIS | 608 | 24.3 | – | 121.4 | 642 | 24.1 | – | 149.7 | 778 | 23.9 | – | 162.2 | 941 | 25.4 | – | 193.8 | 983 | 24.4 | – | 209.2 | 1,199 | 25.6 | – | 255.2 | ||
Malignant N. | 1,899 | 75.7 | – | 379.1 | 2,021 | 75.9 | – | 471.1 | 2,479 | 76.1 | – | 516.7 | 2,759 | 74.6 | – | 568.2 | 3,038 | 75.6 | – | 646.5 | 3,491 | 74.4 | – | 742.9 |
2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No. of incidence | % | IR | No. of incidence | % | IR | No. of incidence | % | IR | No. of incidence | % | IR | No. of incidence | % | IR | No. of incidence | % | IR | |||
Breast interval cancer | Total | 1,278 | 100.0 | 51.7 | 1,385 | 100.0 | 56.0 | 1,801 | 100.0 | 62.7 | 1,912 | 100.0 | 67.2 | 1,986 | 100.0 | 70.5 | 2,150 | 100.0 | 76.3 | |
CIS | 245 | 19.2 | 9.9 | 259 | 18.7 | 10.5 | 392 | 21.8 | 13.6 | 436 | 22.8 | 15.3 | 446 | 22.5 | 15.8 | 501 | 23.3 | 17.8 | ||
Malignant N. | 1,033 | 80.8 | 41.8 | 1,126 | 81.3 | 45.5 | 1,409 | 78.2 | 49.0 | 1,476 | 77.2 | 51.9 | 1,540 | 77.5 | 54.7 | 1,649 | 76.7 | 58.5 | ||
Age | 40–49 | Subtotal | 608 | 47.6 | 79.6 | 678 | 49.0 | 87.4 | 802 | 44.5 | 94.0 | 852 | 44.6 | 103.5 | 914 | 46.0 | 110.7 | 975 | 45.3 | 112.5 |
CIS | 111 | 18.3 | 14.5 | 134 | 19.8 | 17.3 | 170 | 21.2 | 19.9 | 193 | 22.7 | 23.4 | 213 | 23.3 | 25.8 | 229 | 23.5 | 26.4 | ||
Malignant N. | 497 | 81.7 | 65.1 | 544 | 80.2 | 70.1 | 632 | 78.8 | 74.1 | 659 | 77.3 | 80.0 | 701 | 76.7 | 84.9 | 746 | 76.5 | 86.1 | ||
Subtotal | 456 | 35.7 | 58.8 | 469 | 33.9 | 59.9 | 691 | 38.4 | 71.5 | 665 | 34.8 | 71.5 | 690 | 34.7 | 75.1 | 787 | 36.6 | 81.4 | ||
50–59 | CIS | 89 | 19.5 | 11.5 | 87 | 18.6 | 11.1 | 154 | 22.3 | 15.9 | 163 | 24.5 | 17.5 | 142 | 20.6 | 15.4 | 182 | 23.1 | 18.8 | |
Malignant N. | 367 | 80.5 | 47.3 | 382 | 81.4 | 48.8 | 537 | 77.7 | 55.6 | 502 | 75.5 | 54.0 | 548 | 79.4 | 59.6 | 605 | 76.9 | 62.6 | ||
Subtotal | 161 | 12.6 | 28.0 | 181 | 13.1 | 32.6 | 225 | 12.5 | 35.8 | 291 | 15.2 | 45.4 | 285 | 14.4 | 45.8 | 296 | 13.8 | 42.0 | ||
60–69 | CIS | 36 | 22.4 | 6.3 | 32 | 17.7 | 5.8 | 55 | 24.4 | 8.8 | 61 | 21.0 | 9.5 | 77 | 27.0 | 12.4 | 65 | 22.0 | 9.2 | |
Malignant N. | 125 | 77.6 | 21.7 | 149 | 82.3 | 26.8 | 170 | 75.6 | 27.1 | 230 | 79.0 | 35.9 | 208 | 73.0 | 33.5 | 231 | 78.0 | 32.8 | ||
Subtotal | 53 | 4.1 | 14.9 | 57 | 4.1 | 15.9 | 83 | 4.6 | 19.4 | 104 | 5.4 | 23.1 | 97 | 4.9 | 21.5 | 92 | 4.3 | 18.5 | ||
70 | CIS | 9 | 17.0 | 2.5 | 6 | 10.5 | 1.7 | 13 | 15.7 | 3.0 | 19 | 18.3 | 4.2 | 14 | 14.4 | 3.1 | 25 | 27.2 | 5.0 | |
Malignant N. | 44 | 83.0 | 12.4 | 51 | 89.5 | 14.2 | 70 | 84.3 | 16.4 | 85 | 81.7 | 18.9 | 83 | 85.6 | 18.4 | 67 | 72.8 | 13.5 | ||
Subtotal | 765 | 59.9 | 35.4 | 813 | 58.7 | 38.3 | 1,050 | 58.3 | 42.6 | 1,136 | 59.4 | 46.8 | 1,195 | 60.2 | 50.2 | 1,331 | 61.9 | 56.0 | ||
Results of screening | Normal | CIS | 129 | 16.9 | 6.0 | 152 | 18.7 | 7.2 | 208 | 19.8 | 8.4 | 246 | 21.7 | 10.1 | 253 | 21.2 | 10.6 | 314 | 23.6 | 13.2 |
Malignant N. | 636 | 83.1 | 29.4 | 661 | 81.3 | 31.2 | 842 | 80.2 | 34.2 | 890 | 78.3 | 36.7 | 942 | 78.8 | 39.6 | 1,017 | 76.4 | 42.8 | ||
Benign lesion | Subtotal | 513 | 40.1 | 167.5 | 572 | 41.3 | 162.4 | 751 | 41.7 | 183.7 | 776 | 40.6 | 185.9 | 791 | 39.8 | 180.4 | 819 | 38.1 | 186.8 | |
CIS | 116 | 22.6 | 37.9 | 107 | 18.7 | 30.4 | 184 | 24.5 | 45.0 | 190 | 24.5 | 45.5 | 193 | 24.4 | 44.0 | 187 | 22.8 | 42.6 | ||
Malignant N. | 397 | 77.4 | 129.6 | 465 | 81.3 | 132.0 | 567 | 75.5 | 138.7 | 586 | 75.5 | 140.4 | 598 | 75.6 | 136.4 | 632 | 77.2 | 144.1 |
Breast cancer based on health insurance claim data | Total | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Detected | Not detected | ||||||
Screening for breast cancer with mammography | 2009 | Positive | 3,759 | 74.6 | 503,365 | 507,124 | |
Negative | 1,278 | 2,468,639 | 83.1 | 2,469,917 | |||
Total | 5,037 | 2,972,004 | 2,977,041 | ||||
2010 | Positive | 3,953 | 74.1 | 430,430 | 434,383 | ||
Negative | 1,385 | 2,472,196 | 85.2 | 2,473,581 | |||
Total | 5,338 | 2,902,626 | 2,907,964 | ||||
2011 | Positive | 4,696 | 72.3 | 480,664 | 485,360 | ||
Negative | 1,801 | 2,872,365 | 85.7 | 2,874,166 | |||
Total | 6,497 | 3,353,029 | 3,359,526 | ||||
2012 | Positive | 5,324 | 73.6 | 485,532 | 490,856 | ||
Negative | 1,912 | 2,841,889 | 85.4 | 2,843,801 | |||
Total | 7,236 | 3,327,421 | 3,334,657 | ||||
2013 | Positive | 5,676 | 74.1 | 468,980 | 474,656 | ||
Negative | 1,986 | 2,815,339 | 85.7 | 2,817,325 | |||
Total | 7,662 | 3,284,319 | 3,291,981 | ||||
2014 | Positive | 6,493 | 75.1 | 468,163 | 474,656 | ||
Negative | 2,150 | 2,815,175 | 85.7 | 2,817,325 | |||
Total | 8,643 | 3,283,338 | 3,564,681 |