A new tool for identifying risk of repeated intimate partner violence adjusted for the population of Montenegro: a cohort study

Current estimates suggest that approximately 20% of women and 11% of men have been victims of intimate partner violence. Risk identification tools for repeated domestic violence currently exist and have typically been designed by police and judicial authorities, based on the criminal history of the perpetrator. A follow-up cohort study of 238 cases of intimate partner violence (judicially processed and officially judged as DV according to Montenegrin Criminal Act) was conducted by reviewing randomly selected court files. The results showed that certain perpetrator characteristics (unemployment, lack of regret, other violent criminal history, and history of being beaten by a family member) and victim characteristics (nonqualified education and predictions of future harm) were associated with reassault. Relationship characteristics such as different ethnicity, poor socioeconomic status, difference in incomes, living in a rental property, alcohol and drug use, and unprocessed previous history of physical violence were also associated with repeated violence. A risk identification tool for repeated intimate violence was computed based on the significant variables, with a sensitivity of 85% and a specificity of 89%. This study demonstrates a new tool for repeated intimate partner violence prediction in patriarchal societies, widespread in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. The majority of factors associated with reassault in this sample have been shown to be predictive for repeated intimate partner violence in previous studies. The applicability of our tool in egalitarian societies should be investigated in order to see whether the combination of these factors is universal or specific to patriarchal societies.