Bleeding Risk Prediction Models in Atrial Fibrillation

Novel, nonvitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (OACs) have demonstrated similar or superior efficacy to warfarin for ischemic stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). As the prevalence of AF rises in a growing elderly population, these agents are becoming central to the routine practice of clinicians caring for these patients. Though the benefits are clear, the decision to treat the elderly patient with AF with long-term oral OACs is often a dilemma for the clinician mindful of the risk of major bleeding. Several bleeding risk prediction models have been created to help the clinician identify patients for whom the risk of bleeding is high, and would potentially outweigh the benefits of OAC therapy. In this review, we discuss the features of 8 bleeding risk prediction models, including the recently described HEMORR₂HAGES, HAS-BLED, and ATRIA models, and approaches to assessing bleeding risk in clinical practice.