Background
Variables | CASUS | APACHE II | SAPS II | SOFA |
---|---|---|---|---|
Cardiovascular system
| ||||
Blood pressure |
√
|
√
|
√
|
√
|
Heart rate |
√
|
√
|
√
| |
CVP |
√
| |||
Lactate |
√
| |||
IABP |
√
| |||
VAD |
√
| |||
NYHA IV (cardiac) |
√
| |||
Catecholamines |
√
| |||
Respiratory system
| ||||
Oxygenation |
√
|
√
|
√
|
√
|
Respiratory rate |
√
| |||
COPD |
√
| |||
Hypoxia |
√
| |||
Hypercapnia |
√
| |||
Pulmonary hypertension |
√
| |||
Patient dependence on respirator |
√
| |||
Renal system
| ||||
Creatinine |
√
|
√
|
√
| |
Urine output |
√
|
√
| ||
Dialysis |
√
|
√
| ||
Urea |
√
| |||
Hepatic system
| ||||
Bilirubin |
√
|
√
|
√
| |
Cirrhosis |
√
| |||
Portale hypertension |
√
| |||
GI bleeding |
√
| |||
Liver collapse |
√
| |||
Hepatic encephalopathy |
√
| |||
Hematological system
| ||||
Leukocytes |
√
|
√
| ||
Platelets |
√
|
√
| ||
Hematocrit |
√
| |||
Central nervous system
| ||||
GCS |
√
|
√
|
√
| |
Neurologic state |
√
| |||
Electrolyte/Metabolic status
| ||||
Sodium |
√
|
√
| ||
Potassium |
√
|
√
| ||
Bicarbonate |
√
|
√
| ||
Patient data
| ||||
Age |
√
|
√
| ||
Chronical disease
| ||||
Metastasis/tumor |
√
|
√
| ||
Leukemia |
√
|
√
| ||
AIDS |
√
|
√
| ||
Therapeutic low immunity |
√
| |||
ICU-admission
| ||||
Elective surgery |
√
|
√
| ||
Internal disease |
√
|
√
| ||
Emergency OP |
√
|
√
| ||
Others
| ||||
Temperature |
√
|
√
| ||
pH |
√
|
Methods
Statistical analyses
Results
Operation | number | % |
---|---|---|
CABG | 1526 | 54.5 |
Isolated valve surgery | 635 | 22.7 |
Combined CABG & valve surgery | 381 | 13.6 |
Ascending aorta and aortic arch surgery | 60 | 2.1 |
Combined ascending aorta & valve surgery | 116 | 4.1 |
Combined ascending aorta & coronary surgery | 5 | 0.2 |
Cardiac transplantation | 24 | 0.9 |
Congenital, cardiac tumors, pulmonary embolectomy, Assist device implantation | 54 | 1.9 |
Total
|
2801
|
100
|
Day | Scoring model | Logistic Regression | OCC | HL test | ROC-Analysis | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
O R | 95%-CI | % | χ1
| p-value | AUC | 95%-CI | ||
Preoperative (2801)
|
Add-Euro
| 1.25 | 1.20-1.30 | 94.7 | 9.10 | 0.33 | 0.71 | 0.64-0.79 |
Log-Euro
| 1.04 | 1.03-1.05 | 94.7 |
19.75
|
0.01
| 0.71 | 0.63-0.78 | |
CASUS
| 1.55 | 1.48-1.64 | 96.0 | 3.65 | 0.82 | 0.93 | 0.91-0.95 | |
ICU-Day 1 (2801)
|
SOFA
| 1.70 | 1.58-1.82 | 95.3 | 7.90 | 0.34 | 0.85 | 0.81-0.88 |
SAPS II
| 1.08 | 1.07-1.10 | 95.0 |
36.60
|
<0.001
| 0.83 | 0.79-0.86 | |
APACHE II
| 1.17 | 1.14-1.19 | 95.0 | 5.28 | 0.626 | 0.78 | 0.75-0.82 | |
CASUS
| 1.50 | 1.43-1.58 | 96.9 | 13.97 | 0.05 | 0.97 | 0.96-0.98 | |
ICU-Day 2 (2769)
|
SOFA
| 1.64 | 1.54-1.76 | 95.3 | 6.75 | 0.56 | 0.91 | 0.88-0.93 |
SAPS II
| 1.09 | 1.08-1.10 | 95.4 |
33.87
|
<0.001
| 0.89 | 0.87-0.91 | |
APACHE II
| 1.20 | 1.17-1.23 | 95.3 |
30.63
|
<0.001
| 0.87 | 0.85-0.90 | |
CASUS
| 1.37 | 1.31-1.43 | 93.8 | 10.29 | 0.17 | 0.94 | 0.93-0.96 | |
ICU-Day 3 (1234)
|
SOFA
| 1.55 | 1.44-1.66 | 90.8 | 6.45 | 0.60 | 0.90 | 0.88-0.93 |
SAPS II
| 1.09 | 1.08-1.10 | 90.9 |
17.15
|
0.03
| 0.89 | 0.87-0.92 | |
APACHE II
| 1.20 | 1.16-1.23 | 91.0 |
18.13
|
0.02
| 0.86 | 0.83-0.89 | |
CASUS
| 1.36 | 1.29-1.43 | 92.4 | 3.66 | 0.82 | 0.93 | 0.91-0.96 | |
ICU-Day 4 (815)
|
SOFA
| 1.50 | 1.39-1.62 | 89.3 | 8.35 | 0.40 | 0.89 | 0.86-0.91 |
SAPS II
| 1.08 | 1.07-1.10 | 89.3 | 12.18 | 0.143 | 0.87 | 0.84-0.91 | |
APACHE II
| 1.18 | 1.14-1.22 | 88.6 | 8.42 | 0.297 | 0.82 | 0.78-0.86 | |
CASUS
| 1.34 | 1.26-1.41 | 91.2 | 8.08 | 0.33 | 0.92 | 0.89-0.95 | |
ICU-Day 5 (566)
|
SOFA
| 1.51 | 1.39-1.65 | 86.9 | 2.46 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.85-0.92 |
SAPS II
| 1.08 | 1.06-1.09 | 86.0 |
18.99
|
0.015
| 0.86 | 0.83-0.90 | |
APACHE II
| 1.16 | 1.12-1.20 | 86.2 | 14.30 | 0.07 | 0.79 | 0.74-0.84 | |
CASUS
| 1.32 | 1.25-1.41 | 89.5 | 4.71 | 0.79 | 0.90 | 0.86-0.94 | |
ICU-Day 6 (430)
|
SOFA
| 1.47 | 1.35-1.61 | 85.6 | 3.98 | 0.86 | 0.88 | 0.84-0.91 |
SAPS II
| 1.07 | 1.05-1.08 | 85.6 | 5.11 | 0.75 | 0.82 | 0.77-0.87 | |
APACHE II
| 1.14 | 1.10-1.19 | 85.8 | 5.96 | 0.65 | 0.75 | 0.69-0.81 |
Derivative of the Scoring model | Logistic Regression | OCC | HL test | ROC-Analysis | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
O R
|
95%-CI
|
%
|
χ
1
|
p-value
|
AUC
|
95%-CI
| |
Mean-CASUS
| 2.04 | 1.85-2.62 | 98.3 | 5.75 | 0.68 | 0.991 | 0.987-0.995 |
Mean-SOFA
| 2.76 | 2.43-3.12 | 97.3 | 11.33 | 0.18 | 0.96 | 0.94-0.98 |
Mean-SAPS II
| 1.26 | 1.22-1.29 | 97.2 | 5.22 | 0.73 | 0.982 | 0.975-0.988 |
Mean-APACHE II
| 1.64 | 1.54-1.75 | 96.2 | 3.78 | 0.88 | 0.97 | 0.96-0.97 |
Max-CASUS
| 1.60 | 1.51-1.70 | 97.8 | 2.12 | 0.95 | 0.98 | 0.97-0.99 |
Max-SOFA
| 1.81 | 1.69-1.95 | 95.6 | 10.54 | 0.16 | 0.92 | 0.90-0.95 |
Max-SAPS II
| 1.15 | 1.13-1.18 | 95.9 | 3.75 | 0.88 | 0.95 | 0.94-0.96 |
Max-APACHE II
| 1.35 | 1.30-1.40 | 95.5 | 14.38 | 0.07 | 0.93 | 0.91-0.95 |