Introduction
The onset of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) may be an insidious process that can go unrecognized by the patient or by the primary care provider in the early phases. This is in part because the symptoms of SLE are heterogeneous and involve disparate organ systems and also due to the fact that early manifestations such as sun sensitivity, skin rash, chest discomfort and joint pains are relatively common complaints that are usually associated with non-SLE causes [
1,
2]. Conversely, the most serious organ involvement, acute kidney injury, may go completely unrecognized in the early stages. Another impediment to early detection is that patients with SLE usually have onset at relatively young ages when chronic organ-damaging illness is unexpected.
When SLE is suspected, testing for antinuclear antibodies (ANA) is usually carried out. While ANA positivity is associated with SLE in almost all cases, the high prevalence of ANA positivity in the general population, which approaches 25%, means that most individuals with ANAs do not in fact have SLE or a related autoimmune disease. So the interpretation of ANA positivity in the setting of vague symptoms is not straightforward, and the many positive results obtained in practice distract focus away from the few individuals who are in fact at high risk [
3].
Improving the accuracy of early SLE diagnosis would be greatly aided by the availability of blood markers that have greater disease specificity in the early stages. One approach to accomplishing this objective is to expand profiling for autoantibody expression with the goal of identifying specificities that signal a high risk of future disease [
4]. Since SLE is associated with more than 100 different autoantibodies [
5] and many are present years prior to SLE diagnosis [
6], it is reasonable to postulate that some of these might appear early and herald future disease.
A useful group of patients for study of early SLE are those individuals who have some features of SLE but who do not have a full complement of the defined criteria needed to establish the diagnosis with certainty. These individuals have been designated as having incomplete lupus, or ILE, and it is likely that a subset of these patients is in the early stages of SLE [
7,
8].
The present study was designed to determine whether clinical evolution of lupus-related autoimmunity can be correlated with expressed autoantibodies. An objective is to identify specificities that may be useful for distinguishing those individuals who are at high risk of disease progression. These studies made use of a slide-based autoantigen array for 80 specificities that has been described previously [
9]. The findings suggest that development of a risk scale for lupus progression can be developed using demographic and autoantibody profile data.
Discussion
The search for readily-accessible blood biomarkers of disease risk is a major focus of biomedical research in many areas. The development over 50 years ago of a simple slide-based assay for serum ANAs is in fact an example of a paradigm-shifting biomarker. This single test was the key to the finding that patients with a wide array of clinical pathology in multiple organ systems, in fact shared a common autoimmune etiology [
3]. Without the ANA blood test it would have taken far longer to define SLE and develop effective treatments. The current challenge is to find more specific indicators of high risk disease in early or even pre-clinical stages of SLE when interventions have significant disease-modifying potential [
17,
18]. We have used the designation of incomplete lupus (ILE) to identify individuals with less than 4 criteria, as a group that is at risk for progression of disease. One of the patients in the current study subsequently was recognized as having four criteria, although clinically, this individual was treated as ILE with hydroxychloroquine and subsequently progressed to develop renal involvement. This illustrates that although the ILE definition is somewhat arbitrary, it does have value in defining a population at risk for progressive illness.
A major tool employed in the current studies is the slide-based autoantigen array, which is in effect a scale-up of the classic slide-based ANA using a broad spectrum of autoantigens. Since many investigations have clearly documented that autoantibodies appear in the circulation prior to onset of clinically apparent SLE, it is reasonable to postulate that a subset of the autoantibodies on the array may be biomarkers predictive of risk [
11]. The results presented here suggest that longitudinal evaluation of patients can provide useful insights into features that predict higher risk of progressive autoimmunity and support the hypothesis that the ILE patient category includes some individuals who are in evolving stages of disease [
15]. The risk features include the relatively straightforward ones of female gender and age less than 40 years, which are also risk factors for development of ANA positivity itself [
11]. Furthermore, having a high baseline ANA and an increase in IgG autoreactivity added to the risk score. The autoantigen arrays also point to a set of baseline IgG autoantibodies that further elevate the risk of progression to SLE. Validation of these observations and the proposed or alternative risk scores in a larger, prospectively collected sample will be required to determine whether these autoantibodies are in fact prognostic biomarkers.
Autoimmune responses modulate over time, and show patterns consistent with epitope spreading [
19]. Antibodies to Ro/SSA are among the earliest to appear prior to SLE diagnosis, and responses to these epitopes show evidence of spread [
20]. The present study showed that IgM and IgG antibodies Ro/SSA and La/SSB autoantigens may be related to disease progression. None of the patients with progression had decreases in IgG antibodies to La/SSB over the period of follow-up and conversely none of the nonprogressors showed increased levels of these autoantibodies. The La/SSB changes are of interest in view of animal model data demonstrating that the RNA recognition motif of La/SSB mediates epitope spreading by triggering B cells to diversify the expressed repertoire through a molecular mimicry mechanism [
21]. Whether the early upregulation of La/SSB autoantibodies in humans has specificity for later development of SLE or other autoimmune disorders remains undetermined [
22]. Since Ro/SSA and La/SSB autoantibodies are readily measured in the clinical laboratory, these could be clinically useful predictive tests as others have suggested [
23]. On the other hand, the overall prevalence of Ro/SSA and La/SSB in SLE is not high enough to deliver sufficient sensitivity to be a useful screening tool. Furthermore, the thyroid autoantibodies might actually indicate that the autoimmune problem is primarily in that gland. Overall, the use of a multiplex set of antibodies to develop a risk score is likely to be a more robust approach.
A screening test for risk based on clinical, demographic and laboratory features would be potentially useful in the primary care setting to help with appropriate triage for specialty care. The high volume of ANA positive referrals to rheumatology clinics might be more efficiently managed if a risk assessment tool were available. A scale that could reliably identify patients at high risk for progression also would be potentially useful to identify candidates for preclinical treatment protocols designed to delay, ameliorate or prevent progression to SLE. Hydroxychloroquine is one candidate medication that might be used for this purpose, since other data suggest that use of this drug in early disease may delay the onset of SLE [
24]. Other treatments such as Vitamin D, statins and peptide vaccination have been also discussed as potential preclinical interventions [
4].
There are several significant limitations to the present study. These include the small sample size and retrospective design, which potentially introduces bias in patient selection. Furthermore, the relatively short period of evaluation may not have permitted capture of additional changes that might become manifest only with longer follow-up. Other findings indicate that at least some ILE or ANA-positive patients experience years of latency and accumulating autoimmunity prior to disease onset [
25].
Conclusions
Patients with autoimmune markers of lupus include a subset with evolving disease in whom SLE may become manifest. Female gender, age less than 40 years and high ANA levels are significant risk factors for progression of disease. Autoantibodies to Ro/SSA and La/SSB may be of additional use in detecting individuals at risk for SLE progression, and other autoantibodies, especially in the IgG class, also may have significant predictive value. Further longitudinal studies to determine the validity of the proposed risk profile will be of interest. Ultimately, application of these tools to the design of preclinical treatment strategies designed to ameliorate or prevent manifestations of SLE should be considered.
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by NIH/NIAMS P50AR0455503. We appreciate the assistance of Justin Ribault, Maha Yousif, Pratik Doshi and Tiffany Lin for enrolling and evaluating the individuals in DRADR. Michelle Christadoss and Ferdicia Carr-Johnson processed the samples and carried out the ANA measurements. Benjamin F Chong, MD, and Heidi Jacobe, MD, of the Department of Dermatology at UT Southwestern shared with us a set of skin-specific autoantigens for inclusion on the protein arrays, and we appreciate their input. We are also grateful to Chandra Mohan, MBBS, PhD and Ward Wakeland, PhD, for helpful discussions and support. This work is dedicated to the memory of our colleague Valerie K Branch, MS, MBA.
Competing interests
NJO has equity interest in ArthroChip LLC and research grants from Roche and Savient Pharmaceuticals. DRK has research grants from Human Genome Sciences and Centocor. The other authors have no competing interests.
Authors' contributions
NJO and DRK designed the study and supervised collection and analysis of the samples. QZL and LW carried out and analyzed the array experiments. JQ performed other autoantibody measures. AM coordinated patient recruitment and collection of the clinical information. All authors have read and approved the manuscript for publication.