Conditional probability of survival and post-progression survival in patients with glioblastoma in the temozolomide treatment era

With standard treatment for glioblastoma (GBM) consisting of surgery followed by radiotherapy (RT) with concurrent and adjuvant temozolomide (TMZ), median survival is ~14.6 months. This is not as informative to patients who have survived for some time. Conditional probability of survival may offer more relevant survival estimates. Outcomes/conditional probability of survival and post-progression survival (PPS) estimates were retrospectively reviewed in the TMZ treatment era of 882 consecutive patients with a diagnosis of GBM from January 2004 to August 2010. Median age of entire cohort was 62 years including 62 % males. Baseline performance status (PS) was 0–1 in 67, 23 % had frontal lobe tumors, 58 % received concurrent RT/TMZ ± adjuvant TMZ. Survival (OS) was similar for those with frontal lobe tumors versus other locations (P = 0.25). OS for patients receiving standard RT/TMZ ± TMZ was 14.2 months. Age, PS, extent of surgery, therapy post-surgery had significant effects on OS. OS for entire cohort at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 years was 43.4, 17.9, 10.4, 8.4, 7.2 % respectively. Conditional probability of survival of an additional year given survival to 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 years was 41.4, 58, 80.7, 85.7, 81.5 % respectively. Conditional probability of survival for those patients receiving concurrent RT/TMZ ± adjuvant TMZ was similar. Patients who progress >18 months after their initial treatment for GBM had significantly greater 2 and 5 year PPS as well as OS. Conditional probabilities of survival may provide more meaningful life expectancy predictions for survivors of GBM than conventional survival outcomes.