Introduction
Methods
Ethics statement
Register data
Measures
Violent crime
Risk factors
Subjects
Statistical analyses
Characteristics | Persistence in violent crime expressed by number of convictions | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
High persistence (11+) (n = 2,812) | Percent within group (%) | Medium persistence (3–10) (n = 21,530) | Percent within group (%) | Low persistence (1–2) (n = 6,900) | Percent within group (%) | Non-offenders (0) (n = 9,36,420) | Percent within group (%) | |
Sex | ||||||||
Male | 2,752 | 97.9 | 20,214 | 93.9 | 60,558 | 87.4 | 8,35,240 | 89.2 |
Female | 60 | 2.1 | 1,316 | 6.1 | 8,742 | 12.6 | 1,01,180 | 10.8 |
Any missing school grade | 243 | 8.6 | 1,720 | 8.0 | 3,003 | 4.3 | 9,118 | 1.0 |
Age at 1st conviction for a violent crime: | ||||||||
15–18 years | 1,691 | 60.0 | 9,095 | 42.0 | 18,862 | 27.0 | N/A | N/A |
19–23 years | 773 | 27.0 | 7,065 | 33.0 | 25,341 | 37.0 | N/A | N/A |
≥24 years | 348 | 12.0 | 5,370 | 25.0 | 25,097 | 36.0 | N/A | N/A |
Sum of convictions for violent crimes | 46,401 | – | 1,01,767 | – | 86,215 | – | N/A | N/A |
Mean violent convictions/individual | 16.5 | – | 4.7 | – | 1.2 | – | N/A | N/A |
Number convicted of aggravated violence | 2,769 | 98.5 | 19,569 | 90.9 | 48,437 | 51.7 | N/A | N/A |
Sum of convictions for aggravated violence | 23,362 | – | 58,335 | – | 55,665 | – | N/A | N/A |
Mean aggravated violence convictions/individual | 8.3 | – | 2.7 | – | 0.8 | – | N/A | N/A |
Number convicted of nonviolent crime (any below) | 2,746 | 97.7 | 18,240 | 84.7 | 41,134 | 59.4 | 1,83,792 | 19.6 |
Theft | 2,607 | 92.7 | 15,214 | 70.7 | 28,542 | 41.2 | 82,976 | 8.9 |
Drug-related offense | 1,905 | 67.7 | 7,993 | 37.1 | 9,724 | 14.0 | 13,839 | 1.5 |
Traffic violation | 2,440 | 86.8 | 14,243 | 66.2 | 28,741 | 41.5 | 1,29,785 | 13.9 |
Sum of convictions for other crimes | 1,42,525 | – | 3,92,211 | – | 3,60,144 | – | 5,17,660 | – |
Mean of other crime convictions/individual | 50.7 | – | 18.2 | – | 5.2 | – | 0.6 | – |
Any psychiatric inpatient diagnosis: | 1,778 | 63.2 | 7,512 | 34.9 | 10,367 | 15.0 | 21,404 | 2.3 |
Major mental disorder | 157 | 5.6 | 784 | 3.6 | 1,438 | 2.1 | 4,749 | 0.5 |
Personality disorder | 624 | 22.2 | 1,902 | 8.8 | 2,228 | 3.2 | 3,859 | 0.4 |
Substance use disorder | 1,679 | 59.7 | 6,773 | 31.5 | 8,777 | 12.7 | 15,407 | 1.6 |
One or both parents of cases and non-offenders | ||||||||
Non-Scandinavian ethnicity | 371 | 13.2 | 2,804 | 13.0 | 7,329 | 10.6 | 65,656 | 7.0 |
Any conviction for a violent crime | 699 | 24.9 | 3,911 | 18.2 | 8,057 | 11.6 | 31,555 | 3.4 |
Any conviction for a nonviolent crime | 1,850 | 65.8 | 12,681 | 58.9 | 34,397 | 49.6 | 2,78,204 | 30.7 |
Any psychiatric inpatient diagnosis (not including substance use disorder) | 1,350 | 48.0 | 8,398 | 39.0 | 21,296 | 30.7 | 1,63,804 | 17.5 |
Any inpatient diagnosis substance use disorder | 941 | 33.5 | 5,847 | 27.2 | 14,089 | 20.3 | 98,382 | 11.5 |
Parent died before child was 18 years old | 295 | 10.5 | 1,834 | 8.5 | 4,963 | 7.2 | 43,544 | 5.7 |
Results
Descriptives
Distribution of violent convictions
Gender differences
Persistence in violent crime
Individuals | Convictions | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number of violent convictionsa
| Number individuals/number of conviction | Cumulative number of individualsb
| Cumulative percent of the total populationc(%) | Cumulative number of violent convictionsd
| Percent of all violent convictions (%) | Preventive potential of all convictionse
| |
1 | 52,385 | 93,642 | 3.91 | 2,34,383 | 100 | 181,998 | 78 % |
2 | 16,915 | 41,257 | 1.72 | 1,81,998 | 148,168 | 63 % | |
3 | 7,907 | 24,342 |
1.02
| 1,48,168 |
63
| 124,447 |
53 %
|
4 | 4,739 | 16,435 | 0.69 | 1,24,447 | 105,491 | 45 % | |
5 | 2,923 | 11,696 | 0.49 | 1,05,491 | 90,876 | 39 % | |
6 | 2,018 | 8,773 | 0.37 | 90,876 | 78,768 | 34 % | |
7 | 1,355 | 6,755 | 0.28 | 78,768 | 69,283 | 30 % | |
8 | 1,085 | 5,400 | 0.23 | 69,283 | 60,603 | 26 % | |
9 | 828 | 4,315 | 0.18 | 60,603 | 53,151 | 23 % | |
10 | 675 | 3,487 | 0.15 | 53,151 | 46,401 | 20 % | |
11 | 492 | 2,812 |
0.12
| 46,401 |
20
| 40,989 |
17 %
|
12 | 396 | 2,320 | 0.10 | 40,989 | 36,237 | 15 % | |
13 | 312 | 1,924 | 0.08 | 36,237 | 32,181 | 14 % | |
14 | 275 | 1,612 | 0.07 | 32,181 | 28,331 | 12 % | |
15 | 207 | 1,337 | 0.06 | 28,331 | 25,226 | 11 % | |
16 | 196 | 1,130 | 0.05 | 25,226 | 22,090 | 9 % | |
17 | 135 | 934 | 0.04 | 22,090 | 19,795 | 8 % | |
18 | 132 | 799 | 0.03 | 19,795 | 17,419 | 7 % | |
19 | 82 | 667 | 0.03 | 17,419 | 15,861 | 7 % | |
20 | 77 | 585 | 0.02 | 15,861 | 14,321 | 6 % | |
21 | 60 | 508 | 0.02 | 14,321 | 13,061 | 6 % | |
22 | 61 | 448 | 0.02 | 13,061 | 11,719 | 5 % | |
23 | 50 | 387 | 0.02 | 11,719 | 10,569 | 5 % | |
24 | 46 | 337 | 0.01 | 10,569 | 9,465 | 4 % | |
25–80 | 291 | 291 | 0.01 | 9,465 | 4 | N/A | N/A |
Risk factors for persistence in violent crime
Criminal history, mental health, and educational background
Parental risk factors
Multivariate analyses of risk factors for persistence in violent crime
Predictor |
B
| Odds ratio | 95 % CI |
---|---|---|---|
Male sex | 0.9 | 2.5a
| 2.3–2.6 |
Any missing school grade | 0.2 | 1.3a
| 1.2–1.4 |
1st conviction for violence, age 15–18 | 0.7 | 2.0a
| 1.9–2.0 |
Any conviction for theft | 0.7 | 2.0a
| 1.9–2.0 |
Any conviction for a drug-related offense | 0.7 | 1.9a
| 1.9–2.0 |
Any conviction for a traffic violation | 0.6 | 1.8a
| 1.7–1.8 |
Any diagnosis of a major mental disorder | 0.2 | 1.3a
| 1.1–1.4 |
Any diagnosis of a personality disorder | 0.8 | 2.3a
| 2.1–2.4 |
Any diagnosis of a substance use disorder | 0.6 | 1.9a
| 1.8–2.0 |
Parent of non-Scandinavian ethnicity | 0.1 | 1.1a
| 1.0–1.1 |
Parent with any conviction of a violent crime | 0.3 | 1.3a
| 1.2–1.4 |
Parent with any conviction of a nonviolent crime | 0.1 | 1.1a
| 1.1–1.1 |
Parent diagnosed with a psychiatric disorder | 0.1 | 1.1a
| 1.1–1.1 |
Parent diagnosed with a substance use disorder | – | ||
Parent died before child’s 18th birthday | 0.1 | 1.1b
| 1.0–1.1 |