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Erschienen in: BMC Anesthesiology 1/2020

Open Access 01.12.2020 | Research article

Predictors of 1-year mortality in patients on prolonged mechanical ventilation after surgery in intensive care unit: a multicenter, retrospective cohort study

verfasst von: Yueming Sun, Shuangling Li, Shupeng Wang, Chen Li, Gang Li, Jiaxuan Xu, Hongzhi Wang, Fei Liu, Gaiqi Yao, Zhigang Chang, Yalin Liu, Meixia Shang, Dongxin Wang

Erschienen in: BMC Anesthesiology | Ausgabe 1/2020

Abstract

Objectives

The requirement of prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV) is associated with increased medical care demand and expenses, high early and long-term mortality, and worse life quality. However, no study has assessed the prognostic factors associated with 1-year mortality among PMV patients, not less than 21 days after surgery. This study analyzed the predictors of 1-year mortality in patients requiring PMV in intensive care units (ICUs) after surgery.

Methods

In this multicenter, respective cohort study, 124 patients who required PMV after surgery in the ICUs of five tertiary hospitals in Beijing between January 2007 and June 2016 were enrolled. The primary outcome was the duration of survival within 1 year. Predictors of 1-year mortality were identified with a multivariable Cox proportional hazard model. The predictive effect of the ProVent score was also validated.

Results

Of the 124 patients enrolled, the cumulative 1-year mortality was 74.2% (92/124). From the multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis, cancer diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR] 2.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.37–3.35; P < 0.01), no tracheostomy (HR 2.01, 95% CI 1.22–3.30; P < 0.01), enteral nutrition intolerance (HR 1.88, 95% CI 1.19–2.97; P = 0.01), blood platelet count ≤150 × 109/L (HR 1.77, 95% CI 1.14–2.75; P = 0.01), requirement of vasopressors (HR 1.78, 95% CI 1.13–2.80; P = 0.02), and renal replacement therapy (HR 1.71, 95% CI 1.01–2.91; P = 0.047) on the 21st day of mechanical ventilation (MV) were associated with shortened 1-year survival.

Conclusions

For patients who required PMV after surgery, cancer diagnosis, no tracheostomy, enteral nutrition intolerance, blood platelet count ≤150 × 109/L, vasopressor requirement, and renal replacement therapy on the 21st day of MV were associated with shortened 1-year survival. The prognosis in PMV patients in ICUs can facilitate the decision-making process of physicians and patients’ family members on treatment schedule.
Hinweise

Publisher’s Note

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Abkürzungen
APACHE
acute physiology and chronic health evaluation
CI
confidence interval
COPD
chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases
GCS
Glasgow coma scale
HR
hazard ratio
ICU
intensive care unit
MDR
multi-drug-resistant
MV
mechanical ventilation
NYHA
the New York Heart Association
POCs
postoperative complications
SOFA
sequential organ failure assessment
XDR
Extensively drug-resistant

Introduction

Mechanical ventilation (MV) is a frequently applied invasive technique to patients admitted in the intensive care unit (ICU). Although MV is usually seen as a life-saving strategy, it has a strong potential to worsen the prognosis with prolonged use. According to the 2005 consensus of the National Association for Medical Direction of Respiratory Care (NAMDRC), prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV) is defined as the requirement of MV for more than 6 h daily and that lasts for more than 21 consecutive days [1]. The requirement of PMV is associated with increased medical care demand and expenses [2, 3], high early and long-term mortality [4, 5], and worse life quality [69]. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the prognosis in PMV patients in ICUs to facilitate the decision making process of the physicians and patients’ family members on treatment schedule in the ICUs.
In 2008, Carson and colleagues [10] developed a mortality-prediction model (Prognosis for Prolonged Ventilation, i.e., ProVent score) to estimate the risk of 1-year mortality in patients receiving MV for at least 21 days. They used four factors including age, platelet count, use of vasopressors, and requirement of renal replacement therapy to calculate the ProVent score. Another study showed only low platelet count on the 21st day of MV as a predictor of 1-year mortality in patients requiring PMV in a medical ICU in Korea [11]. However, in a mixed ICU study in France, use of vasopressors, and requirement of renal replacement therapy are predictors of 1-year mortality in patients requiring PMV [12]. Therefore, due to the inconsistent findings, further studies are needed to evaluate this further. In addition, no study has yet to demonstrate the predictors of 1-year mortality in patients requiring PMV in ICU after surgery. The purpose of this study was to analyze the predictors of 1-year mortality in patients requiring PMV in ICU after surgery.

Material and methods

This was a multicenter, retrospective cohort study.
The study protocol was approved by the Ethics Committee of Peking University First Hospital (2017[1422]). As the study was purely observational and retrospective in nature, the Ethics Committee agreed to exempt the written informed consent. However, all enrolled patients or their family members had to verbally agree to participate in the long-term follow-up before the data collection.

Patients

Patients who required MV after surgery in the ICUs in five tertiary hospitals (Peking University First Hospital, Peking University Third Hospital, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing Cancer Hospital, and Beijing Hospital) in Beijing between January 2007 and June 2016 were screened. The inclusion criteria were those aged 18 years or older, admitted to the ICU after surgery, and received MV for at least 21 consecutive days. Patients who met any of the following criteria were excluded: acute or chronic neuromuscular diseases (such as Guillain-Barré syndrome, muscular dystrophy, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, or myasthenia gravis), requirement of invasive MV before ICU admission, or incomplete clinical information.

Patient and public involvement

The research question and outcome were not informed by patients’ priorities, experience, and preference. Patients didn’t involve in the design of this study. Patients didn’t involve in the recruitment to and conduct of the study. The results wasn’t disseminated to study participants. All enrolled patients or their family members verbally agree to participate in the long-term follow-up before the data collection and researchers thanked them.

Clinical data collection

Data were collected using the medical record system in each hospital. Baseline data included demographic characteristics (age and gender), preoperative comorbidities, the New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional classification, liver and renal function tests, radio- or chemotherapy within 6 months, reason for surgery, location of surgery. Others included the scores of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) [13] and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II within the first 24 h after ICU admission.
On the 21st day of MV, data including platelet count, requirement of renal replacement therapy (currently or within 48 h), use of vasopressors (currently or within 48 h), mode of nutritional supplementation, state of consciousness, presence of multi-drug resistant bacterial infection, and performance of tracheostomy were collected. Other data including the duration of MV, length of stay in ICU and hospital, and ICU and hospital mortalities, were recorded. The 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year survival status after day 21 of MV were documented from the medical record system or at follow-up. The record was checked every three months.

Statistical analysis

Patients were divided into survivor and non-survivor groups according to the 1-year survival status. Continuous variables were presented as means ± standard deviation (SD) or median (interquartile range [IQR]) and compared with unpaired t test or Mann-Whitney U test. Categorical variables were presented as numbers (%) and compared using χ2 or Fisher’s exact test. The 95% confidence interval (CI) of mortality in patients was estimated by the Bootstrap method (the number of execution samples was 1000).
Factors in association with 1-year survival were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazard model. Factors with number of events > 10 were screened. Ten factors were identified at univariate analysis. Those with P < 0.10 were included in the multivariate model after testing for collinearity. Collinearity of factors were tested using linear regression. Independent factors in association with 1-year survival were identified using a backward stepwise method. The effects of the combination of our multivariate factors and the ProVent score in predicting 1-year survival in patients with PMV were compared using the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and the area under the curve (AUC). All tests were two-sided. P values ≤0.05 were considered statistically significant. Statistical analysis was performed with the SPSS 21.0 software package (Inc, Chicago, IL).

Results

Patient recruitment and baseline characteristics

From January 2007 to June 2016, 33,131 patients who were admitted to ICUs in the 5 tertiary hospitals were screened for study participation. Of these, 156 patients (0.5%) required PMV after surgery (incidence of PMV was 0.5%); and 124 (0.4%) fulfilled the inclusion/exclusion criteria and were included in the final statistical analysis (Fig. 1).
Of 124 patients included in the study, mean (±SD) age was 66.5 (±16.5) years, 72.6% (90/124) were male, and 35.5% (44/124) underwent cancer surgery (Table 1).
Table 1
Baseline characteristics
 
Total
(N = 124)
Non-survivors
(N = 92)
Survivors
(N = 32)
P value
Age (y)
66.5 ± 16.5
67.8 ± 15.8
62.8 ± 18.1
0.138
Male sex
90 (72.6)
67 (72.8)
23 (71.9)
0.917
Preoperative comorbidities
Central nervous system
24 (19.4)
19 (20.7)
5 (15.6)
0.535
 Stroke
16 (12.9)
13 (14.1)
3 (9.4)
0.760
 Cephalomeningitis
5 (4.0)
3 (3.3)
2 (6.3)
0.603
 Parkinsonism
2 (1.6)
2 (2.2)
0 (0.0)
> 0.999
 Intracranial aneurysm
1 (0.8)
1 (1.1)
0 (0.0)
> 0.999
 Dementia
1 (0.8)
1 (1.1)
0 (0.0)
> 0.999
Respiratory system
37 (29.8)
27 (29.4)
10 (31.3)
0.839
 Smoking a
31 (25.0)
22 (23.9)
9 (28.1)
0.636
 Tuberculosis
5 (4.0)
5 (5.4)
0 (0.0)
0.326
 Asthma
4 (3.2)
3 (3.3)
1 (3.1)
> 0.999
 COPD
4 (3.2)
2 (2.2)
2 (6.3)
0.274
 Pulmonary heart disease
1 (0.8)
1 (1.1)
0 (0.0)
> 0.999
Circulatory system
79 (63.7)
59 (64.1)
20 (62.5)
0.869
 Hypertension
66 (53.2)
49 (53.3)
17 (53.1)
0.989
 Coronary heart disease
27 (21.8)
22 (23.9)
5 (15.6)
0.328
 Arrhythmia
14 (11.3)
8 (8.7)
6 (18.8)
0.122
 Cardiomyopathy
1 (0.8)
1 (1.1)
0 (0.0)
> 0.999
Metabolic and immune system
35 (28.2)
30 (32.6)
5 (15.7)
0.066
 Diabetes
24 (19.4)
21 (22.8)
3 (9.4)
0.097
 Hyperlipemia
5 (4.0)
5 (5.4)
0 (0.0)
0.326
 Thyroid disease
2 (1.6)
2 (2.2)
0 (0.0)
> 0.999
 Rheumatoid arthritis
2 (1.6)
1 (1.1)
1 (3.1)
0.451
 Gout
1 (0.8)
1 (1.1)
0 (0.0)
> 0.999
 Systemic lupus erythematosus
1 (0.8)
0 (0.0)
1 (3.1)
0.258
NYHA functional classification
0.058
 I
63 (50.8)
42 (45.7)
21 (65.6)
 
 II
34 (27.4)
30 (32.6)
4 (12.5)
 
 III
17 (13.7)
11 (12.0)
6 (18.8)
 
 IV
10 (8.1)
9 (9.8)
1 (3.1)
 
Abnormal liver function b
5 (4.0)
4 (4.4)
1 (3.1)
> 0.999
Abnormal renal function c
5 (4.0)
4 (4.4)
1 (3.1)
> 0.999
Radio−/chemotherapy in 6 months
4 (3.2)
2 (2.2)
2 (6.3)
0.274
Cancer surgery
44 (35.5)
40 (43.5)
4 (12.5)
0.002
Location of surgery
   
0.015
 Intra-thoracic
45 (36.3)
39 (42.4)
6 (18.8)
 
 Intra-abdominal
40 (32.3)
30 (32.6)
10 (31.3)
 
 Others d
39 (31.5)
23 (25.0)
16 (50.0)
 
Preoperative ASA classification
   
0.270
 I
10 (8.1)
9 (9.8)
1 (3.1)
 
 II
63 (50.8)
43 (46.7)
20 (62.5)
 
 III
22 (17.7)
16 (17.4)
6 (18.8)
 
 IV
29 (23.4)
24 (26.1)
5 (15.6)
 
Urgent surgery
37 (29.8)
27 (29.3)
10 (31.3)
0.839
ICU admission for new onset POCs
31 (25.0)
18 (19.6)
13 (40.6)
0.018
Scores on ICU admission
    
 SOFA score
7.4 ± 3.3
7.6 ± 3.4
6.5 ± 2.5
0.051
 APACHE II score
20.0 ± 7.3
20.9 ± 7.7
19 ± 5.7
0.210
Results are presented as mean ± SD and numbers (%)
COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases. NYHA, the New York Heart Association. ICU, intensive care unit. POCs, postoperative complications. SOFA, sequential organ failure assessment. APACHE, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation
aSmoking for more than 10 cigarettes per day for more than 1 year, including current or past smokers
bSerum alanine transaminase or aspartate transaminase higher than 5 times of the normal upper limit
cDefined as glomerular filtration rate (GFR) < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2
dInclude neurosurgery, thyroid surgery and orthopedic surgery

Status on day 21 of mechanical ventilation

Compared with 1-year non-survivors, those who survived underwent more tracheostomy (P < 0.01) and enteral nutrition (P = 0.01), suffered less from low platelet-count (≤150 × 109/L; P = 0.02), and required less renal replacement therapy (P = 0.03) (Table 2).
Table 2
Patients’ situation on the 21st day of mechanical ventilation
Situation on 21st day of MV
Total
(N = 124)
Non-survivors
(N = 92)
Survivors
(N = 32)
P value
No tracheostomy
31 (25.0)
30 (32.6)
1 (3.1)
< 0.01
Consciousness (GCS = 15)
74 (59.7)
54 (43.6)
20 (62.5)
0.71
Drug-resistant bacteria infection
63 (50.8)
51 (55.4)
12 (37.5)
0.08
 MDR
50 (40.3)
39 (42.4)
11 (34.4)
0.43
 XDR
13 (10.5)
12 (13.0)
1 (3.1)
0.18
Intolerance of enteral nutritiona
43 (34.7)
38 (41.3)
5 (15.6)
0.01
Platelet ≤150 × 109/L
49 (39.5)
42 (45.7)
7 (21.9)
0.02
On vasopressors
41 (33.1)
33 (35.9)
8 (25.0)
0.26
On renal replacement therapy
24 (19.4)
22 (23.9)
2 (6.3)
0.03
Results are presented as mean ± SD, median (interquartile range) and numbers (%)
MV, mechanical ventilation. GCS, Glasgow coma scale. MDR, multi-drug-resistant. XDR, Extensively drug-resistant
aIncluded total parenteral and combined enteral-parenteral nutrition

Outcomes

Of all included patients, when counted from the 21st day of MV, the median duration of MV was 35 days (interquartile range [IQR] 27–61). The median length of stay in ICU and hospital were 44.0 (IQR 31.3–73.5) and 65.5 (IQR, 41.3–117.3) days, respectively. The mortality rates were 67.7% [84/124] (95% confidence interval [CI] 59.7–75.8%) in ICU, 71.0% [88/124] (95% CI 62.9–79.0%) in hospital, and 74.2% [92/124] (95% CI 66.9–81.5%) at 1 year. The main cause of death was multiple organ failure syndrome (MODS) induced by septic shock (67.0% [59/124]).

Factors associated with 1-year survival

Factors with number of events > 10 were screened. Ten factors were identified at univariate analysis (P < 0.10) (Table 3).
Table 3
Risk factors in association with 1-year survival (univariate Cox Proportional Hazard analyses)
Risk factors
N
HR (95% CI) a
P value
Baseline characteristics
Age (y)
  < 50
20
1.000
 
 50–64
25
1.06 (0.51–2.19)
0.89
  ≥ 65
79
1.48 (0.81–2.69)
0.20
Male sex
90
1.05 (0.66–1.66)
0.85
Stroke
16
1.09 (0.60–1.95)
0.78
Smoking b
31
1.18 (0.73–1.90)
0.51
Hypertension
66
1.09 (0.72–1.64)
0.69
Coronary heart disease
27
0.87 (0.54–1.40)
0.56
NYHA functional classification
 I + II
97
1.000
 
 III + IV
27
1.01 (0.62–1.66)
0.97
Diabetes
24
1.13 (0.89–1.44)
0.33
Cancer diagnosis
44
1.20 (0.98–1.48)
0.08
Location of surgery
 Others c
39
1.000
 
 Intra-thoracic/abdominal
85
1.73 (1.08–2.78)
0.02
SOFA score on ICU admission
124
1.09 (1.01–1.16)
0.02
APACHE II score on ICU admission
124
1.03 (1.00–1.06)
0.037
Situation on the 21st day of MV
No tracheostomy
31
2.67 (1.70–4.17)
< 0.001
Consciousness (GCS = 15)
74
0.79 (0.52–1.20)
0.27
MDR/XDR bacterial infection
63
1.53 (1.02–2.32)
0.042
Intolerance of enteral nutrition d
43
1.90 (1.25–2.90)
< 0.01
Platelet ≤150 × 109/L
49
1.97 (1.30–2.97)
< 0.01
On vasopressors
41
1.70 (1.11–2.61)
0.02
On renal replacement therapy
24
1.59 (0.97–2.61)
0.068
HR, hazard ratio. CI, confidence interval. NYHA, the New York Heart Association. ICU, intensive care unit. SOFA, sequential organ failure assessment. APACHE, acute physiology and chronic health enquiry. MV, mechanical ventilation. GCS, Glasgow coma scale. MDR, multi-drug-resistant. XDR, Extensively drug-resistant
aFactors with number of events > 10 were included. b Smoking of more than 10 cigarettes per day for more than 1 year, including current or previous smokers. c Included neurosurgery, thyroid surgery, and orthopedic surgery. d Included total parenteral and combined enteral-parenteral nutrition
Of these, SOFA score was excluded because of collinearity with APACHE II score. The remaining nine factors were included in the multivariate Cox proportional hazard model. Six independent factors were identified to be associated with 1-year survival. Cancer surgery (hazard ratio [HR] 2.14, CI 1.37–3.35; P < 0.01), no tracheostomy (HR 2.01, 95% CI 1.22–3.30; P < 0.01), enteral nutrition intolerance (HR 1.88, 95% CI 1.19–2.97; P = 0.01), platelet count ≤150 × 109/L (HR 1.77, 95% CI 1.14–2.75; P = 0.01), vasopressor requirement (HR 1.74, 95% CI 1.11–2.74; P = 0.02), and renal replacement therapy (HR 1.71, 95% CI 1.01–2.91; P = 0.047) on the 21st day of MV were associated with shortened 1-year survival (Table 4).
Table 4
Predictors of 1-year survival (multivariate Cox Proportional Hazard analyses)
Predictors
Univariate analysis
Multivariate
Analysis a
P value
HR (95% CI)
P value
Cancer diagnosis
0.083
2.14 (1.37–3.35)
< 0.01
Intra-thoracic/abdominal surgery (vs. others) b
0.023
SOFA score on ICU admission c
0.019
APACHE II score on ICU admission
0.037
No tracheostomy on day 21 of MV
< 0.001
2.01 (1.22–3.30)
< 0.01
MDR/XDR bacterial infection on day 21 of MV
0.042
Intolerance of enteral nutrition on day 21 of MV d
0.003
1.88 (1.19–2.97)
0.01
Platelet ≤150 × 109/L on day 21 of MV
0.001
1.77 (1.14–2.75)
0.01
On vasopressors on day 21 of MV
0.015
1.74 (1.11–2.74)
0.02
On renal replacement therapy on day 21 of MV
0.068
1.71 (1.01–2.91)
0.047
HR, hazard ratio. CI, confidence interval. ICU, intensive care unit. SOFA, sequential organ failure assessment. APACHE, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation. MV, mechanical ventilation. MDR, multi-drug-resistant. XDR, Extensively drug-resistant
aFactors with P < 0.10 and number of outcomes > 10 were included in the multivariate model (Backward). bIncluded neurosurgery, thyroid surgery, and orthopedic surgery. c Not included because of collinearity with APACHE II score. d Included total parenteral and combined enteral-parenteral nutrition

Comparison between the combination of our multivariate factors and the ProVent score in predicting 1-year mortality

The combination of multivariate factors could be used in predicting 1-year survival in these patients with PMV after surgery (area under curve [AUC] 0.81 [95% CI 0.72–0.89]). The ROC curve was based on the combination of all the 6 independent predictors of death.
There was significant difference between the combination of our multivariate factors and the ProVent score in predicting 1-year mortality in these patients with PMV after surgery (area under curve [AUC] 0.81 [95% CI 0.72–0.89] vs. 0.69 [95% CI 0.58–0.80]; P < 0.01) (Fig. 2).

Discussion

Despite a small incidence of postoperative PMV of only 0.5%, among patients, the mortality were as high as 67.7 and 71.0% in the ICU and hospital, respectively. In studies on patients with PMV in ICUs, the reported 1-year mortality varied from 48 to 67% [11, 12, 14], which is lower than that in our cohort (74.2%). Patients on PMV after surgery had worse 1-year prognosis than patients in mixed and medical ICUs. From the China National Committee on Aging data (http://​www.​cncaprc.​gov.​cn/​contents/​37/​69715.​html), people older than 60 years will be about 248 million by 2020 (17% of the present population in China). Along with an aging population is the progression in medical technology and therapeutic theory, the number of PMV patients will also be increasing in China with time. Thus, it is of great clinical significance to evaluate the prognosis of PMV patients in ICUs.
Our results showed that, for patients requiring PMV after surgery, cancer surgery, together with no tracheostomy, enteral nutrition intolerance, platelet count ≤150 × 109/L, use of vasopressors and renal replacement therapy on the 21st day of MV was associated with shortened 1-year survival. Since it is a retrospective study, it is impossible to know whether the factors associated with mortality are markers of severity or determinants of death.
A study showed that low platelet count, use of vasopressors, and requirement of renal replacement therapy on day 21 of MV are predictors of 1-year mortality in PMV patients in a mixed ICU in the United States [14], which is similar to our finding. The same study showed that age was a predictor of 1-year mortality in PMV patients, but this was not demonstrated in our study; this might have been caused by the different study populations. In critically ill patients, thrombocytopenia is usually caused by severe infections, side effect of medications, and myelosuppression among others; which is regarded as a sign of illness aggravation [15]. Requirement of vasopressors implies an unstable circulation, which is associated with higher occurrence of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) [16]. In patients with sepsis and MODS, requirement of vasopressors is also associated with increased 1-year and 5-year mortality [17]. Requirement of renal replacement therapy on the 21st day of MV is usually caused by renal failure, and is also regarded as a sign of poor prognosis [12].
A study showed that the overall 1-year survival rate in PMV cancer patients was 14.3% [13], which was poorer generally, than that in patients with other comorbidities [18]. After cancer surgery, PMV patients showed poor prognosis, which could be attributed to the cancer itself as well as the development of cancer recurrence/metastasis after surgery [19, 20].
In a study involving 429 patients which evaluated hospital and long-term outcome after tracheostomy for respiratory failure, the results showed that those who were weaned off MV and placed on tracheostomy tubes had lower 3-year mortality than ventilator-dependent patients (P < 0.001) [21]. In the present study, the patients not inserting tracheostomy might often meant with high risk of death, and have increased the use of sedatives and opioids, maybe dependence on MV ultimately, which was associated with prolonged 1-year mortality.
Critically ill patients on MV are at risk of underfeeding and progressive malnutrition, and this population often receives less than the required energy and protein [22]. Enteral nutrition (EN) is preferred over parenteral nutrition (PN) because it is more physiological and less likely to result in hepatobiliary dysfunction and electrolyte imbalance [23]. In addition, when compared with EN, use of PN has been linked to higher incidence of infection, impaired wound healing, and gastrointestinal bleeding [24].
The multivariate Cox proportional model can be used as a prognostic assessment tool for critically ill patients after surgery in the future. Clinicians should not only pay attention to platelet count, use of vasopressors, and the need for renal replacement on the 21st day of MV in patients, but also to assess whether patients have malignant tumors, need tracheostomy, and enteral nutritional support.
The area under curve for the combination of our multivariate factors was more than the area for the ProVent score. There was significant difference between the ProVent score and the combination of our multivariate factors in predicting 1-year survival using ROC curves, however, the sample size was relatively small and the comparison might be unconvincing.
This study had major limitations. First, the sample size was relatively small. Patients requiring PMV after surgery had a small sample size, with a percentage of only 0.5% in our study. A larger sample size is needed to develop a more accurate predictive model. Secondly, our study retrospectively analyzed patients’ data over a long period. Clinical practice and, thus, patient characteristics might have changed during that period, which made it lack of validation.

Conclusions

For patients requiring PMV after surgery, cancer diagnosis, no tracheostomy, enteral nutrition intolerance, low platelet count, and dependence on vasopressors and renal replacement therapy on the 21st day of MV were associated with worse 1-year survival. The prognosis in PMV patients in ICUs can facilitate the decision that making process of the physicians and patients’ family members on treatment schedule.

Acknowledgements

The authors wish to acknowledge all the authors who performed the studies included in this work.
The study protocol was approved by the Ethics Committee of Peking University First Hospital (2017[1422]). As the study was pure observational and retrospective in nature, the Ethics Committee agreed to exempt the written informed consent. However, all enrolled patients or their family members had verbally agreed to participate in the long-term follow-up before collecting data.
The manuscript has been read and its submission approved by all coauthors.

Competing interests

The authors declare that they have no financial or non-financial competing of interest.
Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://​creativecommons.​org/​licenses/​by/​4.​0/​), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://​creativecommons.​org/​publicdomain/​zero/​1.​0/​) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

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Metadaten
Titel
Predictors of 1-year mortality in patients on prolonged mechanical ventilation after surgery in intensive care unit: a multicenter, retrospective cohort study
verfasst von
Yueming Sun
Shuangling Li
Shupeng Wang
Chen Li
Gang Li
Jiaxuan Xu
Hongzhi Wang
Fei Liu
Gaiqi Yao
Zhigang Chang
Yalin Liu
Meixia Shang
Dongxin Wang
Publikationsdatum
01.12.2020
Verlag
BioMed Central
Erschienen in
BMC Anesthesiology / Ausgabe 1/2020
Elektronische ISSN: 1471-2253
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12871-020-0942-0

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