Introduction
Methods
Patients
Candidate predictors
MRI acquisition
CSF analysis
Amyloid status
Institutionalization and mortality
Statistical analyses
External validation
Results
AD dementia vs. SCD/MCI patients
SCD/MCI (n=1418) | AD dementia (n=1179) | p-value | |
---|---|---|---|
Age | 63±7 | 65±7 | <0.001 |
Sex, female | 532 (38%) | 624 (53%) | <0.001 |
MMSE | 27±2 | 20±5 | <0.001 |
Diagnoses | |||
SCD | 836 (59%) | ||
MCI | 582 (41%) | ||
NPI | 10±9 | 12±9 | <0.001 |
CCI | 2.5±1.4 | 3.6±1.3 | <0.001 |
APOE e4 carrier | 618 (58%) | 751 (53%) | <0.001 |
MRI | |||
GCA | 0.5±0.6 | 1.1±0.6 | <0.001 |
MTA | 0.6±0.6 | 1.4±0.7 | <0.001 |
WMH | 0.9±0.8 | 1.0±0.7 | <0.001 |
CSF, pg/ml | |||
Aβ42 | 1394±498 | 749±274 | <0.001 |
p-tau | 21±12 | 35±16 | <0.001 |
Institutionalization | Mortality | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Univariable | Model 1 | Model 2 | Univariable | Model 1 | Model 2 | |||||
Age and sex adjusted | Without CSF | Without CSF/MRI | Age and sex adjusted | Without CSF | Without CSF/MRI | |||||
Age | 1.09* (1.05; 1.13) | 1.10* (1.06; 1.14) | 1.03 (1.00; 1.07) | 1.07 (1.02; 1.11) | 1.10 (1.06; 1.14) | 1.12* (1.09; 1.16) | 1.12* (1.09; 1.15) | 1.04 (1.00; 1.07) | 1.06 (1.02; 1.09) | 1.08 (1.05; 1.12) |
Sex, female | 1.21 (0.73; 2.00) | 1.35 (0.81; 2.23) | 1.52 (0.98; 2.60) | 1.67 (1.00; 2.83) | 1.56 (0.92; 2.63) | 0.72 (0.49; 1.06) | 0.75 (0.51; 1.10) | 0.97 (0.64; 1.45) | 0.96 (0.65; 1.43) | 0.88 (0.59; 1.32) |
MMSE | 0.83* (0.77; 0.90) | 0.83* (0.76; 0.91) | 0.91 (0.83; 1.00) | 0.84 (0.77; 0.91) | 0.84 (0.77; 0.92) | 0.94 (0.88; 1.01) | 0.95 (0.88; 1.02) | |||
NPI | 1.03* (1.00; 1.06) | 1.03* (1.01; 1.06) | 1.03 (1.00; 1.06) | 1.03 (1.00; 1.06) | 1.03* (1.01; 1.05) | 1.02* (1.00; 1.04) | 1.02 (1.00; 1.04) | 1.02 (1.00; 1.04) | ||
CCI | 1.22* (1.07; 1.39) | 1.00 (0.81; 1.23) | 1.50* (1.38; 1.63) | 1.29* (1.15; 1.46) | 1.27 (1.12; 1.43) | 1.23 (1.09; 1.39) | 1.28 (1.14; 1.45) | |||
APOE e4 | 1.96* (1.18; 3.27) | 1.91* (1.15; 3.19) | 1.67 (1.00; 2.79) | 1.85 (1.10; 3.09) | 1.36 (0.94; 1.96) | 1.32 (0.91; 1.90) | ||||
GCA | 2.74* (1.92; 3.92) | 2.21* (1.45; 3.36) | 2.08 (1.34; 3.23) | 2.08 (1.32; 3.26) | 2.93* (2.27; 3.80) | 1.89* (1.39; 2.56) | 1.39 (0.97; 1.97) | 1.46 (1.03; 2.06) | ||
MTA | 1.89* (1.34; 2.58) | 1.36 (0.91; 2.04) | 2.52* (2.04; 3.12) | 1.76* (1.37; 2.27) | 1.50 (1.11; 2.01) | 1.44 (1.08; 1.93) | ||||
WMH | 1.60* (1.20; 2.13) | 1.25 (0.91; 1.71) | 1.47* (1.19; 1.82) | 1.08 (0.85; 1.37) | ||||||
CSF Aβ42a | 0.85* (0.80; 0.90) | 0.87* (0.82; 0.92) | 0.90 (0.84; 0.96) | 0.92* (0.89; 0.96) | 0.95* (0.92; 0.99) | 0.96 (0.92; 1.00) | ||||
CSF p-tau | 1.05* (1.04; 1.06) | 1.04* (1.02; 1.05) | 1.02 (1.01; 1.04) | 1.03* (1.02; 1.04) | 1.02* (1.00; 1.03) | 1.02 (1.00; 1.03) | ||||
Harrell’s C | 0.81 (0.76; 0.86) | 0.76 (0.71; 0.82) | 0.76 (0.70; 0.82) | 0.79 (0.75; 0.83) | 0.79 (0.75; 0.83) | 0.76 (0.71; 0.80) | ||||
3-year Brier score | 0.015 (0.008; 0.021) | 0.015 (0.008; 0.021) | 0.015 (0.008; 0.021) | 0.024 (0.016; 0.032) | 0.0244 (0.016; 0.032) | 0.024 (0.016; 0.032) |
Institutionalization | Mortality | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Univariable | Model 1 | Model 2 | Univariable | Model 1 | Model 2 | |||||
Age and sex adjusted | Without CSF | Without CSF/MRI | Age and sex adjusted | Without CSF | Without CSF/MRI | |||||
Age | 1.00 (0.99; 1.01) | 1.00 (0.99; 1.01) | 1.00 (0.98; 1.01) | 1.00 (0.99; 1.02) | 1.02 (1.00; 1.04) | 1.02* (1.01; 1.04) | 1.02* (1.01; 1.04) | 1.02 (1.00; 1.03) | 1.02 (1.00; 1.03) | 1.03 (1.01; 1.04) |
Sex, female | 0.95 (0.79; 1.15) | 0.95 (0.79; 1.15) | 0.93 (0.77; 1.13) | 0.94 (0.78; 1.14) | 0.88 (0.73; 1.07) | 0.76* (0.63; 0.92) | 0.76* (0.63; 0.92) | 0.70 (0.57; 0.85) | 0.70 (0.57; 0.85) | 0.71 (0.58; 0.86) |
MMSE | 0.93* (0.91;0.94) | 0.93* (0.91; 0.94) | 0.94 (0.92; 0.96) | 0.93 (0.92; 0.95) | 0.93 (0.91; 0.94) | 0.93* (0.92; 0.95) | 0.93* (0.91; 0.94) | 0.94 (0.92; 0.95) | 0.94 (0.92; 0.95) | 0.93 (0.91; 0.95) |
NPI | 1.03* (1.02; 1.04) | 1.03* (1.02; 1.04) | 1.03 (1.02; 1.04) | 1.03 (1.02; 1.04) | 1.03 (1.02; 1.04) | 1.02* (1.01; 1.03) | 1.02* (1.01; 1.03) | 1.01 (1.00; 1.02) | 1.01 (1.00; 1.02) | 1.01 (1.00; 1.02) |
CCI | 1.00 (0.93; 1.08) | 1.00 (0.91; 1.11) | 0.90 (0.81; 1.00) | 1.16* (1.08; 1.25) | 1.13* (1.02; 1.24) | |||||
APOE e4 | 1.03 (0.84; 1.26) | 1.03 (0.84; 1.26) | 0.93 (0.76; 1.15) | 0.94 (0.77; 1.16) | ||||||
GCA | 1.26* (1.07; 1.48) | 1.28* (1.08; 1.50) | 1.49* (1.26; 1.76) | 1.43* (1.20; 1.69) | 1.21 (1.01; 1.45) | 1.21 (1.01; 1.45) | ||||
MTA | 1.37* (1.20; 1.56) | 1.43* (1.24; 1.64) | 1.34 (1.15; 1.55) | 1.30 (1.12; 1.51) | 1.39* (1.23; 1.58) | 1.32* (1.15; 1.51) | ||||
WMH | 0.97 (0.85; 1.09) | 0.96 (0.84; 1.10) | 0.84 (0.75; 0.96) | 0.83 (0.72; 0.95) | 1.30* (1.14; 1.48) | 1.27* (1.10; 1.46) | 1.18 (1.02; 1.35) | 1.18 (1.02; 1.35) | ||
CSF Aβ42a | 1.00 (0.96; 1.03) | 0.99 (0.96; 1.03) | 0.96* (0.92; 0.99) | 0.95* (0.92; 0.99) | ||||||
CSF p-tau | 1.01* (1.00; 1.01) | 1.01* (1.00; 1.01) | 1.01 (1.00; 1.01) | 1.01* (1.00; 1.01) | 1.01* (1.00; 1.01) | |||||
Harrell’s C | 0.68 (0.65; 0.70) | 0.68 (0.65; 0.70) | 0.67 (0.64; 0.70) | 0.65 (0.62; 0.68) | 0.65 (0.62; 0.68) | 0.65 (0.62; 0.68) | ||||
3-year Brier score | 0.174 (0.161; 0.187) | 0.174 (0.161; 0.187) | 0.177 (0.164; 0.190) | 0.091 (0.077; 0.105) | 0.091 (0.077; 0.105) | 0.091 (0.077; 0.105) |