Prognostic value of LODDS in medullary thyroid carcinoma based on competing risk model and propensity score matching analysis

Log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) is an independent prognostic factor for patients with medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC). However, the optimal cutoff value for LODDS needs to be further confirmed, and previous studies have ignored the prevalent competing events of non-cancer deaths among patients with MTC, thus possibly overestimating the risk of death from cancer. The information of patients with MTC who underwent total thyroidectomy was collected from SEER database. Restricted cubic splines (RCS) were used to determine the optimal cutoff for LODDS. Moreover, patients’ overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) were determined using Kaplan–Meier and Cox proportional-hazards model. The competing risk models (CRM) were used to reduce the effect of competing events, and propensity score matching was performed to balance the confounding factors between groups. The cutoff value of LODDS determined by RCS was − 1.004, and a total of 2314 patients with MTC were recruited. In the CRM after PSM, factors such as age over 55 years at diagnosis, being male, treatment with chemotherapy or radiotherapy, unknown tumor size, and LODDS > − 1.004 were significantly associated with poor prognosis of patients both in univariate and multivariate analyses, while the presence of multifocal tumor indicated better prognosis. Patients with MTC who were over 55 years old at diagnosis, were male, received chemotherapy or radiation, had an unclear initial tumor size, and had LODDS > − 1.004 had a worse prognosis than patients with multifocal tumor.